What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 6, 1:11 PM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 6, 1:11 PM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
211 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high will hangout in the western Atlantic while a cutoff
low tracks slowly northeast from Oklahoma and across the south-
central United States into the first half of the week. This will
lead to diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
The main concern is locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated
runoff issues from these slow moving, heavy rain producing storms.
The Bermuda high gradually weakens mid-to-late week while Gulf
moisture interacts with a frontal boundary sinking south out of
Canada. This will lead to continued afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 pm: The forecast area finds itself squeezed between a deep
semi-tropical moisture feed, coincident with good low-level forcing
across the TN Valley and Deep South...and more robust instability
closer to the Carolina coastal plain. As such, widespread precip can
be found just west of and just east of the CWA this afternoon, with
only very isolated activity covering the western Carolinas.
Nevertheless, with moderate instability already covering much of the
area this afternoon, expect scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to eventually get going in most areas. The best
chances over the next 8-12 hours may actually be seen this evening
across the upper Savannah River Valley and vicinity, when short term
guidance generally agrees in lifting a weak short wave trough toward
the area from the Deep South. As such, a brief period of likely PoPs
will be carried there this evening. Chances for severe convection
remain quite limited in light of weak shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates, but still wouldn't completely rule out a pulse severe storm
or two. Locally heavy/perhaps excessive rainfall will therefore
remain the primary threat. Convective coverage should steadily
diminish from late evening through the overnight, with isolated
coverage persisting into the early morning hours. Min temps will
again be roughly 5 degrees above climo.
The deep moisture plume to our west will become better positioned
over the forecast area tomorrow, while forcing will improve a bit as
well as weak short wave troughs continue to approach from the Deep
South. Likely PoPs seem to be a good bet over the entire area by the
end of the day. The severe threat continues to appear limited per
the latest guidance, perhaps even more limited as widespread cloud
cover/cooler temps (forecast maxes right around climo) reduces
instability in comparison with today. However, better coverage of
showers and storms should yield an uptick in the locally heavy
rainfall threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: No major changes to the short term
forecast. A nondescript summertime pattern continues as the CWA
remains sandwiched between a 500mb cutoff low over the Ozarks and
Southern Great Plains, and a broad ridge situated over the Eastern
Seaboard. Although the low will push a bit northeast through
Tuesday, it will have little effect on our weather pattern and
weaken significantly as the blocking ridge remains entrenched over
the Eastern CONUS. Wednesday, the low will decrease in strength, and
by the end of the short term on Wednesday night it has all but
vanished from model output.
So, there shouldn't be much synoptic forcing to work with. The
Bermuda High still set up over the Western Atlantic will continue to
induce southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico for the duration of the
short term, which combined with similar southerly flow at the mid-
levels, should keep the atmosphere ripe with moisture - and
accordingly, we see fairly moist profiles through Tuesday and much
of Wednesday in both GFS and NAM model soundings.
Expecting cloud cover to persist through the forecast period, with
scattered showers around the clock. Diurnally-driven pulse storms
are possible both afternoons as parcels auto-convect. Severe
potential should remain low in the absence of any notable wind
shear, although as always a rogue severe cell can't be ruled out.
The primary threat still looks like localized heavy rain: with only
very weak environmental winds, there won't be much steering flow and
many storms could remain practically stationary. With models still
pushing PWATs close to 2" outside the mountains, such stationary
storms could pose a risk of flash flooding, especially in low-lying
or poorly-drained areas.
Temps should stay a degree or two below normal on Tuesday, but with
ample WAA should climb to around or even a tad above normal by
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: Ridging over the East CONUS finally starts
to break down on Thursday, and mid-level flow veers more westerly.
Without support from aloft, the Bermuda High starts to edge south
and east, so southerly surface flow weakens and we may see somewhat
reduced rainfall on Thursday. A weak warm frontal boundary will
settle over the southern Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday, but
is still on track to keep north of our forecast area. Nonetheless,
this could enhance precip rates a bit through the day. By this
point in time, surface flow will be westerly ahead of an approaching
weak cold front, and despite a less-robust moisture field the
renewed low-level forcing should keep PoPs in the forecast through
late Saturday.
The forecast looks uncertain past this point. An increasingly
chaotic pattern is in store, with models in disagreement on even the
broad synoptic pattern. Temps should be above normal through
Saturday, falling to near normal on Sunday in the wake of the
front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection (almost exclusively SHRA), are
very isolated across the terminal forecast area early this
afternoon, but a couple of these happen to be in the vicinity of
KAVL and KCLT. Tempos for SHRA are carried at KAVL through 21Z.
However, will continue to hold off the tempo for TSRA at KCLT until
19-23Z. At all other sites, the convective mention is limited to
VCSH or VCTS. The lone exception is at KAND, where probabilities are
expected to ramp up enough this evening to support a tempo for SHRA
from 01-04Z. Overnight...shower chances are expected to steadily
diminish while cigs should begin to fill in and lower, with MVFR or
IFR conditions expected at most terminals by sunrise. Periodic visby
restrictions (primarily MVFR) are also possible in showers and in BR
late tonight/early Monday. Slight improvement in conditions is
expected at most terminals early Mon afternoon, while SHRA/TS
chances will again ramp up late in the forecast period.
Outlook: Scattered to numerous, mainly diurnal convective coverage
and associated restrictions persist through much of the week.
Morning fog/stratus are also possible, especially in the mountain
valleys.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 99% High 86% High 82%
KGSP High 98% High 94% Med 75% High 90%
KAVL High 100% Med 67% Med 74% High 86%
KHKY High 99% High 95% High 92% High 91%
KGMU High 99% High 92% Med 68% High 89%
KAND High 100% High 93% Med 76% High 82%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDLHazardous weather outlook, Jun 6, 2:23 AM EST, 13 hours 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
323 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070730-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
323 AM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
General summerlike pulse thunderstorms are expected again today
across the forecast area. The main potential impacts are locally
heavy rainfall leading to isolated runoff issues and cloud-to-ground
lightning with any thunderstorm that develops.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 6, 2:29 PM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
329 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
NCZ071-072-062000-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
329 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS AND NORTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...
At 329 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Downtown Concord, or 4 miles west of Midland, moving
north at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, West Concord, Mint Hill, Harrisburg, Mt
Pleasant, University City, Midland, Reedy Creek Park and Charlotte
Motor Speedway.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3519 8050 3521 8055 3516 8061 3515 8067
3544 8080 3548 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 167DEG 11KT 3525 8058
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 6, 2:30 PM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
NCZ082-062000-
Union NC-
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...
At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Monroe, or 4 miles northwest of Pageland, moving
north at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Sturdivants and Trinity.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8055 3495 8060 3496 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 176DEG 5KT 3482 8043
HG
Special weather statement, Jun 6, 2:34 PM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
NCZ036-057-062000-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND
NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...
At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Salisbury, or 4 miles southeast of Cleveland, moving
north at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Cleveland, Cooleemee, Piedmont Research Station, Mount
Ulla and Woodleaf.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3560 8053 3559 8075 3580 8082 3582 8057
3579 8053 3579 8052 3578 8051 3578 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 176DEG 5KT 3568 8065
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 6, 2:55 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
NCZ071-072-062030-
Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CABARRUS AND
NORTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Downtown Concord, or 5 miles northeast of Mint Hill,
moving north at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, West Concord, Mint Hill, Harrisburg, University
City, Midland, Reedy Creek Park, Charlotte Motor Speedway, East
Charlotte and Mt Pleasant.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3519 8051 3521 8055 3517 8060 3516 8073
3542 8081 3542 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 176DEG 9KT 3525 8063
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 6, 3:18 PM EST, 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
418 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
NCZ071-062045-
Mecklenburg NC-
418 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Uptown Charlotte, or near Matthews. This storm was
nearly stationary.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Matthews, Mint Hill, Freedom Park, Reedy
Creek Park and The Plaza.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3515 8062 3509 8070 3504 8080 3519 8097
3533 8069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 149DEG 4KT 3515 8075
HGSpecial weather statement, Jun 6, 3:45 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
445 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
NCZ071-062115-
Mecklenburg NC-
445 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Uptown Charlotte, or near Southpark Mall, moving
northwest at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Matthews, Mint Hill, Pineville, Freedom
Park and Reedy Creek Park.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3503 8080 3509 8092 3511 8093 3510 8094
3515 8104 3515 8101 3516 8101 3518 8100
3535 8077 3516 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 130DEG 7KT 3515 8080
HG