Tropical Storm Elsa moved through central North Carolina during the daytime hours of Thursday, July 8. Widespread rainfall ranging from 2-5 inches affected areas along Highway US-1, with lesser amounts across the Coastal Plain and only a few tenths of an inch around the Greensboro and Winston-Salem areas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Tropical Storm Elsa moved through central North Carolina during the daytime hours of Thursday, July 8. Widespread rainfall ranging from 2-5 inches affected areas along Highway US-1, with lesser amounts across the Coastal Plain and only a few tenths of an inch around the Greensboro and Winston-Salem areas. A few storms produced transient circulations capable of producing tornadoes. One report of flash flooding occurred as a result of Elsa.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 3:00 PM EST, 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Elsa will exit the area tonight with rain chances decreasing across the area. A weak trough will cross the mountains and move through NC on Friday, bringing another chance of rain to the area. A return to a more typical summer-like pattern is expected this weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday... ...Tropical Storm Elsa rapidly moving out of the area... The center of Tropical Storm Elsa is rapidly making its way through central NC this afternoon, and is still a few miles southwest of Raleigh per the latest NHC advisory and surface obs/satellite imagery. Moderate/locally heavy rainfall continues to the north and east of the center and an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected in these areas through late afternoon. Elsewhere, the heavy rain threat has ended and the Flash Flood Watch has been trimmed quite a bit to reflect current radar trends. Some areas have seen upwards of 3.5 to 4 inches of rain but fortunately, the heavy rain threat has ended in those areas. The remainder of the Watch should be allowed to expire at 6 PM as scheduled. Meanwhile, the typical tropical tornado threat along and east of the track has materialized with a number of transient circulations that developed throughout the day. Sig TOR parameter remains focused east of I-95 within an area of SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/KG and 0-1km shear around 30-35kts. The best dynamics will shift northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and the tornado threat should diminish rapidly. Lingering storms in Halifax County could exhibit brief rotation and TOR Watch 350 will cover this threat through early evening. Precip directly associated with Elsa will exit early this evening, but a secondary mid level perturbation will move into the area from the west after 00Z, potentially bringing one more round of isolated showers to southern NC. HRRR/NAM and to some extent the GFS/EC all showing light precip developing south of US-64 this evening, then dissipating after midnight. Additional rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of a few hundredths of an inch and nothing that will lead to additional flooding. Temps tonight will bottom out in the upper 60s, around 70. Some patchy fog is possible but should be mitigated by lingering cloud cover and BL winds around 5-7 kts area-wide. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday... Lingering clouds are expected tomorrow but should lift by mid morning as BL mixing deepens ahead of an approaching mid level shortwave trough. The trough appears to weaken as it crosses the mountains but there should be enough moisture convergence ahead of the boundary (thanks to leftover PW's from Elsa) to support high end chance/low end likely PoPs across the area tomorrow afternoon). MLCAPEs around 2000 J/kG are more than enough to warrant a mention of thunder. However given the weak nature of the trough the overall severe threat appears to be low. Temperatures tomorrow will be fairly close to normal with daytime highs approaching 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM Thursday... The extended period will generally feature a typical summertime pattern for central NC, with diurnal showers and storms each afternoon and evening, and near-normal temperatures. On Saturday, model guidance shows a warm front lifting north through the area, with a weak Piedmont trough in place. However, mainly westerly flow aloft looks to bring in drier air, and CAPE appears fairly unimpressive. Thus only have slight to low chance POPs at this time. A much better chance of showers and storms comes on Sunday, which looks to be the wettest day of the period overall, thanks to deep southerly return flow off the Atlantic around both an upper low centered near IA/MO and a western Atlantic ridge. The 12z GFS has precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches over much of the area. Thus have high chance to likely POPs, highest west. As the center of the Bermuda high drifts farther west closer to our region, height rises and subsidence, along with weaker moist southerly flow and no frontal passages to speak of, will then result in decreasing shower and storm chances through midweek. Chance POPs on Monday give way to slight to low chance POPs on Tuesday and Wednesday, highest in the western Piedmont. The GFS and its ensembles are especially dry compared to the ECMWF. As the high begins to weaken and drift SE and the Piedmont trough strengthens on Thursday, convection chances may start to increase again. High temperatures will be close to normal through the period (upper- 80s to lower-90s), with clouds/precip likely making Sunday and Monday the "coolest" days before temperatures slightly increase through the week. Clouds and moisture will keep lows slightly above normal, in the upper-60s to lower-70s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 157 PM Thursday... Through 18Z Friday: Widespread low MVFR and IFR are currently found across much of central NC, associated with Elsa's rain shield and cloud cover. While the back edge of the rain shield is currently moving across central NC, the high-dwpt airmass will remain, and when coupled with rain-cooled low levels and some BL wind...look for stratus and sub-VFR cigs to linger into this evening, and possibly overnight. In fact, if it does begin to clear this evening, subsequent cooling should facilitate additional low clouds developing, thus will show sub-VFR conditions returning overnight, esp KRDU/KRWI/KFAY where the heavier rain fell today. Otherwise, wind gust up to 25kt will be possible until the Elsa circulation exits after 01Z this evening. VFR conditions are expected to return Friday morning after 14Z. After 18Z Friday: A typical summer pattern featuring widely scattered afternoon and evening showers/tstms will be the case through the weekend. Outside of shower/tstm activity, mainly VFR conditions are expected. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011- 023>028-040>043-076>078. && SYNOPSIS...Leins NEAR TERM...Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...np
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 306 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 NCZ021-022-038-039-073>075-083>086-088-089-091915- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 306 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>010-023>028-040>043-076>078-091915- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash- Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Lee-Harnett-Wayne- 306 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Periods of heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Elsa will continue through late afternoon, with flooding possible where storms persist. In addition, an isolated tornado could occur through late afternoon north and east of Raleigh. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ011-091915- Halifax- 306 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...TORNADO WATCH 350 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Flash Flood Watch. Periods of heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Elsa will continue through late afternoon, with flooding possible where storms persist. In addition, storms will be capable of producing an isolated tornado or two through early evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1255 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 SSE PIKEVILLE 35.47N 77.97W
07/08/2021 WAYNE NC AWOS
AWOS STATION KGWW IN GOLDSBORO REPORTED A
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 33 MPH.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
112 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 AM TROPICAL STORM 2 N SOUTHERN PINES 35.22N 79.40W
07/08/2021 MOORE NC AWOS
AWOS STATION KSOP SOUTHERN PINES REPORTED A
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 30 MPH.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 AM TROPICAL STORM 1 ESE CLINTON 34.99N 78.31W
07/08/2021 SAMPSON NC MESONET
MESONET STATION 1159W 1.2 E CLINTON
(WEATHERSTEM) REPORTED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
GUST OF 37 MPH.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
141 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
NCZ011-028-081830-
Edgecombe NC-Halifax NC-
141 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN EDGECOMBE AND SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...
At 140 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Bethel, or 9 miles east of Tarboro, moving
north at 35 mph.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tarboro, Scotland Neck, Enfield, Princeville, Hobgood, Conetoe,
Speed, Leggett and Tillery.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.
LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3590 7734 3582 7735
3583 7739 3581 7742 3580 7748 3614 7771
3615 7770 3615 7771 3619 7774 3630 7742
3626 7741 3624 7738 3621 7738 3619 7733
3617 7731 3617 7729 3616 7728 3610 7727
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 158DEG 31KT 3586 7739
23Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
NCZ007>010-025>027-041>043-081945-
Nash NC-Johnston NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Person NC-
Warren NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-Wilson NC-
235 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021
...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ELSA WILL AFFECT EASTERN
PERSON...VANCE...WARREN...WESTERN NASH...GRANVILLE...CENTRAL WAKE...
WESTERN WILSON...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON...NORTHEASTERN DURHAM AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...
At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of moderate
showers along a line extending from near Kittrell to 7 miles
southwest of Wilson. Movement was north at 25 mph.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
In addition, heavy rain, with rainfall rates approaching 1 to 1.5
inches per hour will result in an accumulation of water in low-lying
and poor drainage areas.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Henderson, Oxford, Nashville, Creedmoor, Louisburg,
Warrenton, Wilson, Wake Forest and Garner.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.
&&
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for central North
Carolina. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT
for central North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3630 7794 3620 7801 3618 7798 3619 7797
3618 7795 3561 7797 3566 7859 3613 7883
3654 7887 3655 7794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 201DEG 22KT 3620 7839 3566 7802
23PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
359 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0255 PM TROPICAL STORM 2 WSW CLINTON 34.98N 78.37W
07/08/2021 SAMPSON NC AWOS
AWOS STATION KCTZ CLINTON REPORTED A
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 32 MPH.
&&The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:30 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The intersection of Purnell Rd and Jackson Rd in Wake Forest was closed briefly due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 970849.