A warm frontal boundary draped across central North Carolina on the 22nd was tied to an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes. This warm front moved northward during the day and early evening on the 22nd, resulting in a few isolated severe storms in Franklin and Nash Counties in central North Carolina.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A warm frontal boundary draped across central North Carolina on the 22nd was tied to an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes. This warm front moved northward during the day and early evening on the 22nd, resulting in a few isolated severe storms in Franklin and Nash Counties in central North Carolina. Several trees were reported down as a result of these isolated severe storms, causing some local power outages as well.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 22, 1:29 PM EST, 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 129 PM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will cross the southern middle Atlantic and Carolinas today. Mild, Pacific high pressure will follow and expand across the Southeast through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1135 AM Monday... Main forecast updates were to add isolated thunder and increase wind gusts up to 35-45 mph in the warm sector both ahead of and within an expected shallow convective line this afternoon (roughly east of a line from from MEB to RDU to IXA) and also to include mention of patchy fog overnight. A wedge front was in the process of retreating nwwd across the Carolinas and at 16Z was analyzed from nrn GA newd to near and just north of CAE, to RDU, to IXA. It may make a little additional nwwd progress to near RCZ newd to HNZ, before an occluded front and large area of rain now tracking across the wrn Carolinas moves east and overhead. As they do so and encounter the aforementioned warm sector --one that will become characterized by surface temperatures and dewpoints in the low-mid 60s and low-mid 50s, respectively-- a narrow line of showers and perhaps a couple of isolated storms will develop and move east across the warm sector between 1-2 PM and 5-6 PM. Momentum transport of around 50 kts of swly flow evident in regional VWP data between 925-700 mb will pose a risk of an isolated damaging wind gust at the surface, amidst otherwise sub-severe gusts generally up to 45 mph within the line. Meanwhile, west of the wedge front (over the nw Piedmont) low overcast, rain, and temperatures in the 30s will persist for much of the day, with some mid-late afternoon clearing and "warming" into the low-mid 40s with the passage of the occluded front and following wly low level flow. Those locations in the cold air damming regime and maximized low level RH for much of the day will also be favored for fog development tonight. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021/ Showers have already developed across central NC and will persist, increasing in coverage through daybreak. Temperatures should remain steady or rise some the remainder of the night, with only locations along the VA border at or below freezing as of 3 AM. While some sleet or freezing rain could mix in briefly at the onset, largely expect precipitation to be liquid thereafter. IF any accumulation of frozen precip occurs, it should be limited to elevated surfaces and should not be impactful. The surface high will continue moving east off the mid-Atlantic coast this morning as the cold front moves in from the west, with its parent low lifting north through the Great Lakes into Canada. Some semblance of the high will stay wedged in over the far NW through this morning, with the current precipitation helping to lock that wedge in a bit more. As the front moves into the area this afternoon, a secondary low may develop along the it, enhancing the convective activity over the area. The secondary low center should lift out of the area this evening as the front finally pushes the rest of the way through central NC. The mid level DPVA max will pass over the area this afternoon, with the strongest LL frontogenesis max progressing from the Triad around 18Z to the Triangle around 21Z before shifting off to the northeast and offshore this evening. While forecast CAPE is minimal, the forecast soundings off the NAM have some elevated CAPE over the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain this afternoon, thus some elevated thunder is possible in those areas. Most everywhere else north and west of I-95 should be in the cool, stable air and thus do not expect thunder in those areas. As for wind/wind gusts, the hi-res model guidance has much higher winds in the shallow mixed layer than the NAM or GFS (as per usual) thus have leaned heavily on that guidance for the wind and wind gust forecasts this afternoon, especially over the Coastal Plain. Highs will obviously depend on the wedge, fropa timing and precipitation, but generally expect highs to range from mid 40s over the NW to near 60 degrees SE. Precipitation totals should be around a half inch or less across the area, with some locally higher amounts possible. Tonight: As the low lifts out and away from the area this evening, the front will push through the rest of central NC, with rain ending from west to east after sunset. Expect skies to gradually clear behind the front as well, with winds around 5 kts or so lingering through the night. Lows should bottom out in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will sit over the Deep South on Tuesday slowly building east into the Southeast US Tuesday night. A lingering weak upper trough will remain over the region on Tuesday until a trailing s/w moves through the Northeast US. The trough finally shifts east over the Atlantic Tuesday night, with the flow aloft gradually backing to more westerly. Tuesday and Tuesday night should be dry and relatively nice, albeit a bit on the breezy side, with clear skies and high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 60s and lows in the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 354 AM Monday... Surface high pressure over the Central Plains will build east into the weekend as the next system develops in the Deep South. Temperatures mid-week will start off 7 to 10 degrees above average with temperatures in the low to mid 60s during the day and low 40s at night continuing to generally return to near normal by the end of the weekend with highs in the low 50s and lows in the upper 30s/ low 40s. The next system will come with another drawn-out period of precipitation beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the weekend as a front will move slowly across the area. Some medium range models are suggesting a weak CAD developing Friday night, but for now, the surface high to our north will not be strong enough to bring any super cold temperatures and cause any precip type issues. Moisture looks limited late this week into the weekend with slight chance to low chance for showers with minimal QPF. There is good agreement among ensemble members late this weekend into next week of increased moisture with increasing SW flow aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 PM Monday... A narrow and shallow line of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms --and associated IFR-MVFR conditions-- will move east and affect RDU, FAY, and RWI through 20 or 21Z. While a mild and gusty swly surface wind, to around 30 kts, will precede the showers, surface winds may locally exceed 40-45 kts when the line moves through FAY and RWI. Otherwise, cold, rainy and LIFR-IFR conditions at INT/GSO will lift and scatter to VFR through the same time, as wly, downslope flow spreads east of the Appalachians. Winds will diminish abruptly after sunset; and the combination of the aforementioned clearing and relative calm will favor the development of at least patchy fog and stratus tonight. A swly breeze will then redevelop with diurnal heating between 15-16Z Tue, with unrestricted ceilings and visibility. Outlook: Cold air damming and associated IFR conditions and widespread rain are expected to occur over cntl NC late Fri into Sat. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS/KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1056 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-088-089-231600- Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland- Sampson- 1056 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph will be possible between noon and 5 PM, both ahead of and within a line of heavy showers that will develop and cross the area this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083>086-231600- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery- Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- 1056 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:38 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Duke Energy reported power outage caused by downed trees and limbs on power lines.
A Tree was reported down on Interstate 95 near mile marker 137.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945936, 945945.