Cold in North Carolina, February 2 to 3, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
231 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold and deep upper level disturbance will slowly move out to
the east through Wednesday as dry and somewhat warmer weather is
expected midweek. Increased moisture and upper support will drive
additional clouds and a chance for rainfall ahead of a cold front
on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 pm EST: A few reports of flurries have been received from
the lower Piedmont where cloud bases are running about 5kft in most
spots, but this moisture should quickly move east of the forecast
area by late afternoon. Meanwhile, cloud top temperatures around
minus 14 C suggest ongoing scattered light snow showers along the TN
border counties even as the radar presentation continues to dry up.
No significant accumulations are expected going forward, however,
scattered showers, cold temperatures, and snow covered roadways are
being addressed via an SPS through the nighttime hours for much of
the mountains. A Wind Chill Advisory will be posted for tonight
across the northern NC mountains and at higher elevations of the
southern and central mountains where values should reach minus 5 C
or colder. In addition, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through
daybreak Wednesday given the tight pressure gradient on the back
side of the departing trough.

Much better insolation and downslope warming will lead to a modest
warmup on Wed east of the mountains, with some lower 50s in the
Upstate of SC and NE GA. Expect mainly 30s or some lower 40s in the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday: As the upper low pushes east on Wednesday,
the short term begins with gradually rising heights and clearing
skies as the good forcing departs to the east.  A stout 500mb ridge
builds in for the next 24 hours as dry high pressure rides beneath;
RHs will drop into the 20% range and the first half of Thursday
should see fair weather.  As this surface high shifts off the coast,
however, a potent shortwave will bring falling heights once again,
and cloud cover should ramp up again as the associated surface low
passes over the Mid-Atlantic.  Although the models are in agreement
that the trough will begin to lift as it crosses the Appalachians
and the best upper forcing will set up north of our CWA, southerly
flow and a strong WAA regime should still allow for widespread
cloud cover and increasing chances for precip going into Thursday
evening.  Onset of precip is likely in the hours before midnight,
and will continue until well past sunrise on Friday, at which
point higher pressure builds in behind the trailing cold front.
Higher elevations may see snow at the onset transitioning to rain
later, with precip persisting a few hours longer than the rest of
the CWA, but with profiles currently showing a deep surface warm
layer, sustained snowfall or large accumulations seem unlikely at
this point.

Temps should be below normal on Wednesday night given the clear,
dry conditions and resulting radiative cooling.  Although cloud
cover will limit daytime insolation on Thursday, the aformentioned
WAA should bring highs Thursday afternoon at least to normal.
Then Thursday night, continuing cloud cover will keep the overnight
low at or above normal.  Friday, temps could be a bit above normal
given decreasing clouds through the day.  Some gusty winds are
possible in the mountains Friday afternoon as the cold front pushes
through, but will probably be sub-advisory at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...An ulvl low over se/rn Canada will continue
pulling northeast and swing a cold front east of the FA. Dry air
looks to mix in rather quickly across the wrn zones as a srn stream
high advances east. PoPs have been lowered Fri night to account for
the quicker progression. Forecast uncertainty remains on the high
end Sat thru the period. The latest GFS is much more suppressive and
slower than the other op models wrt to a srn stream wave and
subsequent coastal cyclogenesis. Still, have lowered PoPs Sat
morning thru afternoon where enuf llvl cold air may interact with
Atl moist adv to produce isol -ra/sn with no snow accum across the
far srn zones thru noon.

The latest guidance continues to diverge with the overall pattern
Sun as the ECMWF, and the CMC to some degree, phase nrn and srn
stream energy and swing it thru during the day which would make for
a stronger coastal low and continued llvl moist adv into the area.
The GFS is much weaker with the sfc low which would portend to -shra
affecting mainly the srn zones, while snow and a rain snow mix would
be featured with the more dynamic ECMWF and CMC solns. Will again
keep PoPs in the low to mid chance range due to this uncertainty.
During the latter part of the period the GFS is quicker and stronger
with a cA airmass reaching the NC mtns and quelch any good chance
for NW flow snow thru the evening. Thus, will maintain a dry fcst
Sun night thru Mon as the deeply cold airmass builds in.

There could be some wind chill issues Sun night as the sfc high
builds in and the sfc p/grad tightens across the NC mtns. Right now
it/s looking advisory level across the higher mtn peaks. Max temps
will begin the period a little below normal and drop to arnd 10
degrees below normal Mon. Mins will also follow a similar cooling
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Any light precipitation from the high
cloud bases passing the I-77 corridor this afternoon will produce
mainly flurries or sprinkles southeast of KCLT, so no precipitation
will be carried at the airfield. Some MVFR cigs will be possible for
a few hours in continued, moist northwest flow at KAVL, but with
mainly VFR cigs going forward. Winds are the primary issue, with
gusty northwest flow producing G30+ at KAVL through tonight, with
G20+ at all the foothill and Piedmont sites. Winds abate slowly on
Wed, but with a brief resurgence late morning as mixing starts
again. Little more than FEW to SCT high clouds are expected from
this evening onward.

Outlook: VFR will continue at the TAF sites through at least
Thursday, Otherwise, the next chance of precipitation and associated
restrictions will be Thu night or Friday with the next frontal
system. Dry weather returns the first half of the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  96%     High 100%     High  89%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ010.
NC...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ033-048>050-052-
     053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for NCZ033-049-050.
     Wind Chill Advisory above 3500 feet from 9 PM this evening to
     10 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ048-051>053-059.
     Wind Advisory above 3500 feet until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     NCZ051-058-059.
SC...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ004>014-019-031945-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-
240 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-059-031945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-
240 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of the western North
Carolina mountains.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ058-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-031945-
Rabun-Graham-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
240 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rabun County in northeast
Georgia, part of the western North Carolina mountains, and the Upstate
South Carolina mountains.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1207 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     SNOW             3 NNW FAUST             35.95N 82.56W
02/02/2021  E8.0 INCH        MADISON            NC   PUBLIC

            SAMS GAP. LARGE DRIFTS IN THE AREA.

&&

SBK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1225 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

NCZ033-048>053-058-030500-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville,
Black Mountain, Candler, Robbinsville, and Stecoah
1225 PM EST Tue Feb 2 2021

...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

Although the recent heavy, accumulating snow is gradually ending
across the western mountains of North Carolina, a combination of
very cold temperatures in the teens and 20s and lingering
scattered snow showers will continue to pose travel difficulties
through tonight and into late Wednesday morning.

Little to no snowmelt is expected the rest of the day as
temperatures remain below the freezing mark, but compaction of
snow onto area roadways will continue to make surfaces quite
slippery. Travel should be delayed or avoided through tonight,
especially in areas near the Tennessee border where accumulations
were highest.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     SNOW             4 N ASHEVILLE           35.63N 82.55W
02/02/2021  E2.0 INCH        BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            1-3 INCHES

&&

MPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     SNOW             3 SSE TRINITY           34.81N 80.51W
02/02/2021  E0.0 INCH        CHESTERFIELD       SC   PUBLIC

            LIGHT FLURRIES REPORTED

&&

MPR