An area of low pressure tracked across the Deep South and eventually along the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, cold surface high pressure to the north continued to extend into the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 16 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An area of low pressure tracked across the Deep South and eventually along the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, cold surface high pressure to the north continued to extend into the area. This resulted in a cold air damming airmass developing across central North Carolina, with freezing rain developing across the northern Piedmont. Ice accruals ranged from trace amounts across southern portions of the Piedmont to a couple tenths of an inch near the North Carolina-Virginia border and in the northwest Piedmont. Imapacts ranged from a glaze of ice accrual in the trees to multiple slick spots with several accidents and scattered power outages.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 3:05 AM EST, 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 305 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... The combination of an Arctic air mass extending into our region from the north, waves of surface low pressure crossing the Carolinas, and an approaching strong upper level disturbance will bring wet and wintry weather through Friday. Dry high pressure will build over the East Coast over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM Thursday... Changes with the upcoming ice storm are minimal. Precipitation has been a little slower to move into the region than originally forecast, but liquid equivalent precipitation forecasts have changed little over the first 24 hours of the forecast. Dewpoints are still in the mid to upper 20s across the northern half of the forecast area, and the wetbulb effect will help to cool these locations as precipitation moves into the region. Still feel that sleet may mix in with freezing rain north of I-85 during the morning if the near surface below freezing layer is thick enough, but this layer should become thin enough in the afternoon that precipitation will not have time to refreeze before reaching the ground. The freezing rain area should inch north during the day, likely nearing I-85 by sunset. Models are in good agreement that precipitation amounts should drop somewhat during the afternoon, so rates should be less during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the strong temperature inversion across the region will prevent any surface-based convection, but elevated convection cannot be ruled out from the top of the inversion, which will be a couple thousand feet off the ground. Maintained the previous forecast of slight chance thunder during the afternoon hours, primarily along the I-95 corridor. Portions of the Triad will remain below freezing all day, while parts of Sampson County might see lower 40s - all other locations will remain in the 30s. As temperatures cool after sunset, the area of freezing rain should begin to extend farther south once again, so just because a location has freezing rain change over to liquid rain during the afternoon does not mean that the freezing rain threat has come to an end. In addition, precipitation rates will increase again for the evening hours before decreasing again after midnight. Temperatures will not fall too much overnight, with most locations not seeing a drop of more than 5 degrees or so from daytime highs. There was little change to the storm total ice or QPF forecasts from the day shift. Storm total ice amounts in the warning counties are still expected to range from a quarter inch to a half inch, with locally higher amounts, while advisory totals could reach as high as a quarter inch. Meanwhile, liquid equivalent forecasts range from three-quarters of an inch in Winston-Salem to 2 inches in Clinton. No changes were required to the flash flood watch. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM Thursday... By sunrise Friday, two waves of low pressure will extend along a front, one low to the east of the Delmarva Peninsula and the other low across eastern Georgia. The front and both lows will slowly drift east during the day. The 00Z models continue the trend shown by yesterday's 12Z model runs, in that precipitation is likely to take longer to depart on Friday, with likely pops generally east of US-1. However, temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s in all locations, so any lingering freezing rain should come to an end quickly Friday morning and change over to all rain. Some partial clearing should occur west of Raleigh, which will allow warmer temperatures to the west. All rain should come to an end by Friday evening, and skies will become mostly clear. This will allow temperatures to drop down into the 20s in all locations. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Sat through Sun: The mid level shortwave trough axis will be pushing off the E Coast Sat morning, with rising heights over NC as weak and subtle mid level ridging arrives from the W. This will be atop an expansive surface high from James Bay to the N Gulf Coast Sat morning that will drift to the E NOAM coast through Sun. Expect fair weather, very few clouds, and no pops over the weekend. Thicknesses will be roughly 30-35 m below normal Sat warming to just 10-15 m below normal Sun as the modifying surface high moves over and off the E Coast, so expect cool temps Sat to trend up closer to normal on Sun, factoring in sunshine. Sun night/Mon: Our next precip chance (this one likely to be all liquid) arrives during this time frame with the long-fetch SE flow on the SW side of the exiting high draws moisture in ahead of a fast moving surface cool front moving from the Miss Valley E to the Ohio Valley/Mid South Sun night, associated with a corresponding fast moving mid level shortwave trough. But the low level flow veers to S and SW and weakens right ahead of the fropa Mon, so expect rainfall amounts to be fairly low, under a quarter inch. Will bring in increasing clouds starting Sun evening, with low pops late Sun night in the S and W with temps bottoming out aoa 32F areawide. Highs Mon 49-58 with a chance of showers. Mon night through Wed: This period appears dry and warm beneath broad and flat mid level ridging. The aforementioned shortwave trough moves off the coast Mon evening, and while a couple of weaker waves zip through the Mid Atlantic late Mon night through Tue, the column will have dried out. Modified southern stream surface high pressure will build over the Gulf and Southeast states from the W during this period, and the slightly above normal thicknesses Tue only rise more through Wed. Expect highs of 55 to around 60 Tue and around 60-65 Wed. -GIH && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Fairly high confidence that any lingering VFR conditions will deteriorate in the next few hours, with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs by daybreak. RA/DZ will fill in across central NC tonight, with FZRA expected to begin at KINT, KGSO and to a lesser extent KRDU between 08Z and and 12Z this morning. Vsbys will also drop into the MVFR (possibly IFR with heavier precipitation). These adverse conditions will persist through the evening/end of the TAF period. Also of concern will be the winds, which will generally be sustained around 8-12 kts. Gusts overnight will be intermittent in the 16-20 kt range, becoming more frequent through the day and tapering off again by midnight Friday. Looking ahead: Expect sub-VFR conditions and precipitation to continue through Friday morning, with precip exiting to the east and cigs and vsbys improving back to VFR through the aft/eve Friday. VFR conditions will then persist through the weekend/Monday. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions and precipitation will be Monday night/Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Flooding is already ongoing or expected to begin shortly along the Neuse, Tar and Roanoke River basins. An additional 1-3 inches of rain is expected through Friday afternoon, with the highest amounts over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Many of the rivers that have already crested and/or fallen back below flood stage are expected to rise into or near flood again as a result of the precipitation. Many river forecast points will remain in flood through the weekend as the runoff makes its way downstream. Additionally, depending how much precipitation falls over the headwaters of area reservoirs, subsequent releases could result in a prolonged period of high water levels along area rivers. As always, do not drive around barricades or through flooded roadways and be especially cautious at night when the dangers of flooding can be harder to recognize. Remember, turn around, don't drown! && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Friday morning for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ011-026- 027-040-041-073>076. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for NCZ007>010- 021>025-038-039. && SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...KC HYDROLOGY...KC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 317 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-191200- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Davidson-Randolph- 317 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ040-073-191200- Chatham-Stanly- 317 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ011-026-027-041-074>076-191200- Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Wake-Montgomery-Moore-Lee- 317 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Flash Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ028-042-043-077-078-083>086-088-089-191200- Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke- Cumberland-Sampson- 317 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
16 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
One-tenth of an inch to two-tenths of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
A trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county, with the most ice accrual reported across northern portions of the county.
A trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county, with the most ice accrual reported across northern portions of the county.
A trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county, with the most ice accrual reported across northern portions of the county.
A trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county, with the most ice accrual reported across northern portions of the county.
A trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county, with the most ice accrual reported across northern portions of the county.
Around one-tenth of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
Around one-tenth of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county.
A trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain was reported across the county, with the most ice accrual reported across northern portions of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945492, 945493, 945494, 945499, 945495, 945496, 945497, 945498, 945571, 945572, 945573, 945574, 945575, 945576, 945577, 945578.