An unseasonably cool and wet pattern persisted across New Mexico at the end of June 2021 and resulted in several inches of rainfall across the southeastern portion of the state. With a large trough across the Rockies and easterly flow across much of New Mexico, moisture continued to stream into the area which allowed for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
An unseasonably cool and wet pattern persisted across New Mexico at the end of June 2021 and resulted in several inches of rainfall across the southeastern portion of the state. With a large trough across the Rockies and easterly flow across much of New Mexico, moisture continued to stream into the area which allowed for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. On June 28, 2021, about 2 to 4 inches of rain fell across southern Chaves County. This amount of rainfall in a short period of time resulted in localized flooding which forced the closure of New Mexico State Road 2 near Lake Arthur.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 11:07 AM MST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1207 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Showers and isolated thunderstorms persist across south central NM through east central NM. These showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand northwestward today, with better thunderstorm chances across far western areas to include KFMN and KGUP. Elsewhere, thunderstorms should generally be more isolated. Mountain obscurations will be common. MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are possible with any shower or thunderstorm, though will be more widespread across portions of eastern NM. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will persist overnight, most widespread across eastern NM. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...206 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021... .SYNOPSIS... The Monsoon is early this year and will kick into full gear this week, with good chances for showers and storms each day across much of the area. Flash flooding will be a concern through the week, especially across southern portions of the state and over area burn scars. High temperatures will be below normal due to added cloud cover and rain cooling. Temperatures will warm a few degrees toward the end of the week and into the holiday weekend as high pressure moves back over the region, but will remain below normal for most locales. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... The large longwave trough remains over the Rockies today thanks to an extensive H5 high over the eastern CONUS blocking it from moving. The trough does develop a closed low circulation though over the NM Bootheel. Flow around these features will continue to transport abnormally high moisture values into the area with PWATs climbing to about 1.25" to 1.5" east of the central mountain chain which is nearly 2 standard deviations above the mean for this time of year. Flash flooding will be a significant concern today, particularly across the southeast where forecast soundings indicate a very saturated profile. Additionally, MLCAPE values will be highest in this area - near 1000 J/kg - and the closed low circulation should enhance lift. With all of this in mind, hi-res guidance indicates storm coverage will increase again today areawide, but it will be the southern half of the CWA that has the highest chances for flash flooding with the HREF indicating high probabilities of 24 hour precipitation totals exceeding an inch across much of the southeast and even high probabilities of exceeding two inches in Chaves County. The current WPC Excessive Rain Outlook even outlines the southeast in a moderate risk which is a rare occurrence for our CWA. Thus, felt confident extending the current Flash Flood Watch in time until 12Z Tuesday. Also extended the Flash Flood Watch westward to include the South Central Mountains, Lower RGV, the San Agustin Plains, and the Southwest Mountains where the aforementioned closed low circulation and deepening moisture should also enhance flash flooding potential. The HREF also shows high probabilities of 24 hour rainfall totals over an inch in these zones, and this will be a concern with recent burn scars such as the Johnson burn scar in the Gila. While the closed low circulation is gone by Tuesday, the same overall pattern stays in place. Moisture continues to be pumped into the area, and an interesting feature that will start to come into play will be Hurricane Enrique, currently off the coast of western Mexico. This hurricane will be tracking northward and reaching the Baja Peninsula by Tuesday. Moisture from this tropical system will start to be pulled northward into the desert southwest, and combined with persistent low-level easterly flow, PWATs will only continue to trend up. This will allow for another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms and the continued potential for more flash flooding. Future shifts will evaluate the likely need to extend and expand the Flash Flood Watch into the latter half of the week. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Moisture from Hurricane Enrique in the far eastern Pacific will advect north around the upper high circulation to our east and send PWATs across our area spiking to near daily record values beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. The 00Z NAM, in particular, is very bullish with the PWATs and qpf for the Tuesday night through Wednesday period with deep southerly flow throughout the column. The upper low currently to our south is forecast to dislodge and move west during this period, which should allow the higher PWAT atmosphere to spread a bit further west to include our entire area. Will likely need to extend and expand a Flash Flood Watch during this period. The upper high is forecast to shift from central TX to over the Great Basin or Four Corners by Saturday. However, our moisture isn't going anywhere and warmer temperatures by the end of the week and over the holiday weekend will allow for more robust convection with an increase in lightning activity and potential for locally heavy rainfall. With the repositioning of the upper high comes a change in storm motion as storms will be moving northwest to southeast or north to south going into the weekend. Although a warm-up is forecast, high temperatures will remain below normal for the beginning of July. 15/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... The unseasonably cool and wet pattern this week will continue to hold off any critical fire weather concerns. Daily rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend with wetting precipitation likely for most. Period of heavy rain are also expected with flash flooding possible, especially on or near burn scars as well as urban and low-lying areas. Storm motions today should be west to northwest while becoming more northerly on Tuesday. Ventilation rates across the area will generally be poor to fair across most of the area with some pockets of good across the west. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ208-209-220-224>226-235>241. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 412 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 NMZ201>241-291100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 412 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and storms will be on the uptrend today and tonight, with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for southern portions of the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A continued threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist through the work week and into the holiday weekend with an active Monsoon pattern in place. The threat for flash flooding will be highest in and near recent burn scars. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. 11
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two to four inches of heavy rain that fell in a short period of time forced the closure of New Mexico State Road 2 from mile marker 6 to mile marker 9 near Lake Arthur for several hours. Damage impacts are unknown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960155.