An area of high pressure that had been prominent over New Mexico and Arizona in the days prior shifted eastward into Texas on June 23, 2021. With the high pressure over Texas and a low pressure system off the coast of California, southwest flow began to stream subtropical moisture into New Mexico.
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The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
An area of high pressure that had been prominent over New Mexico and Arizona in the days prior shifted eastward into Texas on June 23, 2021. With the high pressure over Texas and a low pressure system off the coast of California, southwest flow began to stream subtropical moisture into New Mexico. This increased storm coverage over northern and central portions of the state, however, drier low levels of the atmosphere resulted in gusty outflow winds. Most of these winds were sub-severe, but a downdraft from a shower near Tucumcari produced a 62 mph wind gust at the airport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 23, 4:44 PM MST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Showers and a few thunderstorms persist across much of western NM late this afternoon. These storms will struggle to move into the Rio Grande Valley (KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF), but outflow boundaries fromt hese storms certainly will. Thus, some erratic wind directions and gusts expected. Additional stronger storms have developed across far east central NM. Small hail as well as strong wind gusts can be expected with these storms. Though much of the precip will diminish this evening, hi-res models suggest additional development near the AZ/NM border is possible overnight. On Thursday, showers and thundestorms are expected for most areas. Gusty outflow winds will again be a concern. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...232 PM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021... .SYNOPSIS... The extreme heat of the past couple of weeks will gradually come to an end through the remainder of the work week, then temperatures will trend below normal this weekend and into early next week thanks to a backdoor cold front and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. The front will progress southwest across the area over the weekend and result in strong east canyon winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Rain chances will favor areas from the central mountain chain east to the Texas border through the weekend and then expand west to near the Arizona border early next week. Moisture will hang around through at least the middle of next week with rounds of showers and storms each day and below normal high temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper-level high has shifted east and expanded over northern Mexico and TX while a closed low spins off the coast of CA. Southwest flow has already begun to advect moisture into the area with PWATs on soundings across the SW increasing on this morning's 12Z release. Conditions remain drier at the surface, however, with dewpoints this afternoon in the 30's to low 40's across central and western NM. Convection has already started to form across the southwest mountains at the time of this writing and will continue to become more expansive along and west of the Continental Divide through the late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may expand into the RGV this evening, but with the drier low-levels, wetting precipitation will be spotty and gusty, erratic winds will be more common. Activity will taper off late this evening, but a few showers may persist overnight near the western border. The same overall pattern is expected to continue on Thursday with the high to the east, the closed low over CA, and southwest flow continuing to steer a subtropical plume of moisture into the area. Moisture values continue to trend up with PWATs around 0.75" across the west to near an inch along and east of the RGV. This will result in increased coverage in thunderstorm activity. While dewpoints trend up slightly areawide, they're still not favorable for wetting precipitation, particularly along the west of the Continental Divide. Favorable rain totals will again be spotty with wind the primary hazard with any storm. Otherwise, the increased moisture will also be beneficial for helping to cool temperatures. Temperatures cool to near normal across western and central NM while still remaining above normal across the east. LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... The swath of Pacific moisture will shift east on Friday and be replaced with dry westerlies and lower PWATs as the remnant Pacific low moves slowly east across northern AZ. Moisture convergence and instability will favor the eastern plains near the TX/OK borders for a round of convection Friday afternoon/evening, where a few storms may become severe, but should move quickly east out of NM. The advertised backdoor front will slide southwest down the eastern plains to the central mountain chain Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing upslope flow and higher surface dewpoint temperatures for a round of strong to severe storms by afternoon/evening. The front will surge west Saturday night, likely aided by thunderstorm outflow, and will result in strong east canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Moisture behind the front will likely make it to at least the Continental Divide Saturday night into Sunday morning, setting the stage for a more widespread round of convection and wetting rain Sunday afternoon through night. Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF show the PWAT at KABQ rising to over 1" on Sunday, which would definitely be above normal for late June. So, given the instability, expect some heavy downpours with these storms. Daytime temperatures will trend below to well below normal this weekend thanks to the added cloud cover, potential rain cooling, upslope flow and lower pressure heights with the dominant upper high parked well to the north over the Pacific NW. Our area will remain on the periphery of the upper high to the north and the upper high over the Gulf states, effectively in a col through the middle of next week. Meaning, moisture won't be leaving and we'll have daily rounds of storms in what appears to be an early onset to the North American Monsoon, or what we like to call the "Monsoon in June". 15/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... Southwest flow over the area will stream moisture into much of the area through Thursday which will lead to daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Despite this increase in moisture, drier low- levels will mean wetting precipitation will be spotty with activity a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Flow turns westerly on Friday, pushing the moisture and precipitation into eastern NM for the day. A backdoor cold front will then move into eastern NM Friday night, helping to replenish low-level moisture. This moisture will continue to move westward, reaching the Continental Divide by Saturday morning and the AZ border by early Sunday. Behind this front, precipitation chances will trend up each day this weekend and into early next week with wetting precipitation possible for most areas although it may be spottier for far western NM, such as Gallup and Farmington. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 316 AM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 NMZ201>241-241100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 316 AM MDT Wed Jun 23 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the high terrain this afternoon, trending toward western areas of the state this evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing the usual hazards of lightning, small hail, and erratic gusty winds. Hot temperatures will be more widespread today with many central to eastern areas reaching the upper 90's to triple digits. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Hot temperatures will remain in place Thursday and Friday with many central to eastern areas continuing to reach the upper 90's to triple digits. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday will also bring brief downpours and bouts of strong and erratic gusty winds through western and central NM. More widespread wetting thunderstorms look to arrive late Friday in northeastern New Mexico, expanding westward through this weekend and early next week. Storms that develop Friday night and through early next week will be capable of turning stronger with heavy downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any rainfall, hail, or strong wind gusts through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 52
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:41 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An ASOS station in Tucumcari measured a 62 mph wind gust associated with the downdraft of a weak non-thunderstorm shower.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956668.