Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 23 to 24, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

A look at mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the
axis of the mid-level ridge over the Rocky Mountain front range,
with heights building across the Central Plains. Shortwave
impulses are ejecting out from the desert southwest and are
rounding the top of the ridge towards the general area. Surface
troughing was analyzed from west-central South Dakota extending
southward through western Nebraska and into western Kansas. This
surface trough is expected to serve as an initiation point for
storms this afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave impulses
pass over. A large storm complex is expected to organize and the
propagate ESE through eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa this
evening into the overnight hours. Surface-based CAPE values over
3500 J/kg are expected ahead of the complex, with robust capping
of around -300 J/kg in eastern Nebraska. While the capping looks
to be strong, the well organized nature of the MCS that is
expected to develop should be able to overcome that inhibition or
ignite storms above it. The best time currently looks to be from
11 PM tonight through 4 AM Thursday, with wind gusts up to 60 to
75 mph possible alongside 1" hail. Most of the activity is
expected to move into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa from the
west after 10 PM tonight.

Thursday through Saturday storm chances are expected to continue,
as a surface front is expected to push northward from Kansas to
near the NE/KS border and become stationary, serving as a rather
stagnant focus for storm activity. With above-average precipitable
water values in place over the are for that period of time, areas
where consistent rain is expected could see some risk for
flooding. That risk will be somewhat mitigated by the recent lack
of moisture and vigorous crop growth, but will remain nonetheless.

Sunday and Monday look to give the area a brief reprieve from rain
and storm chances, and highs are expected to be in the lower 80's.
Going further into the work week, high pressure is expected to
build into place across the central CONUS, as the majority of the
storm activity across the nation is directed towards the southern
and eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

An evolving MCS over northeast NE is expected to track southeast
through the area overnight, affecting all three terminal
locations. Wind gusts of 40-50 kt will be possible with the
passage of the storms, as will temporary MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. Another round of thunderstorms could impact KLNK and
KOMA on Thursday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
916 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241630-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
916 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from
the west late tonight. The primary hazard will be wind gusts of
up to 60 to 75 mph and up to 1" hail.

Another round of strong to severe storms will arrive late Thursday
afternoon and evening, with the best chance for severe weather
along and south of I-80. Hail and damaging winds will be the
primary concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Wednesday

Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will
continue to be possible Thursday evening into Thursday night.
Specific details regarding the timing and location of the storms
remains uncertain, however the best chance appears to be along and
south of I-80.

Another round of strong storms could occur on Friday afternoon
and evening with non-severe-storm chances extending into this
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of any hail or wind damage are appreciated.