Heavy rain fell for the second day in a row around the Mayhill area causing a highway to be closed as monsoon moisture remained in place trapped under an upper level high. Slow moving storms dropped about another inch and a half of rain in the same area which received significant rain the previous day.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain fell for the second day in a row around the Mayhill area causing a highway to be closed as monsoon moisture remained in place trapped under an upper level high. Slow moving storms dropped about another inch and a half of rain in the same area which received significant rain the previous day.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 10:28 AM MST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1128 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 ...Update for 18Z TAF Cycle... .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE Prevailing VFR conditions expected through period with temporary IFR reductions due the TS. Expect CB to form over local mountains shortly, with FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN150 at TAF sites. VCTS chances introduced for all TAF sites by 00Z, with the highest confidence of direct TS impacts at KDMN/KTCS. VIS may be reduced to 2-3SM within TS. Winds beginning 230-260 at 06-10KT, shifting to 300-350 at 10-15KT after 00Z. Thunderstorm outflows producing surface gusts up to 40KT will be possible between 00-06Z tonight. VFR conditions will prevail from 06Z onward, with scattered -RA. && .PREV DISCUSSION...419 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021... .SYNOPSIS... We will see another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms today, with storms starting first in area mountains and then working down into the lowlands. For Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see a better chance for rain across the area, but then for Thursday and Friday we will see a drying trend start and we will see much lower chances for rain. Our rain chances will return for next weekend. High temperatures this week will continue to run several degrees below average for this time of year. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... Our monsoonal pattern will continue again today as moisture will remain more than sufficient to drive diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Current model projections show a continuation of surface dewpoints in the 50's and 60's and PW values running above normal with readings averaging around 1.40" or better. While instability parameters are not blockbuster, they remain more than sufficient to support the propagation of thunderstorms across just about all areas as the day wears on. The big forecast challenge, as is usually the case during the monsoon season, is not if we will get storms but rather where. Look for convection to initiate once again around midday over our higher terrain due primarily to orographics forcing. Then outflow will begin to dominate as the storms propogate onto the lowlands. Much like yesterday the steering flow will be rather weak, so expect individual cells to be slow movers and proficient rain producers due to the unusually high moisture content of our atmosphere. In general storms should have a tendency to move north to south this afternoon and evening. And we may see a general trend to see the corridor of activity drift westwards a bit back over the Rio Grande Valley as the day wears on as the upper high slowly expends westward during the day today. && .LONG TERM... By Tuesday morning the upper level ridge will be centered over southern Nevada and Utah. The circulation around the ridge will bring moisture and a short wave trough or two across our area. So we will continue to see a good chance for precipitation both Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, storms that do develop over the Sacramento Mountains will drift southeast into the Las Cruces and El Paso region. Then for Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge will shift just a little to the east, to settle over the Four Corners region. This shift will allow the circulation around the ridge to draw in plenty of dry air, so we will see our rain chances take a nose dive. Our precipitable water (PW) values that are running 1.3 to 1.5 today through Wednesday, will drop back below an inch. Since moisture is what fuels our thunderstorms, we will see much less (if any) coverage of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. But then for next weekend, the upper level ridge will drift back a little to the west. This will again allow some moisture to slide in from the east. In addition, an upper level trough will be sliding through the upper Midwest, which also could help push some moisture into the region. So our thunderstorm chances will return on both Saturday and Sunday. Those chances won't be as high as we see the next couple of days, but the entire region will at least see a slight chance for more rain. Taking a quick look at our high temperatures. The short answer is that our high temperatures will continue to run below average through next weekend. For today, our highs will only be a degree or two below average. Then with a little better moisture, more clouds and higher rain chances, we will see our highs on Tuesday and Wednesday running 5 to 10 degrees below average. As we dry out for Thursday and Friday, we will see our highs creep higher, but still run 2 to 5 degrees below average. Finally for next weekend, with the return of clouds and rain chances, we will see our afternoon highs dip a few degrees to run 4 to 8 degrees below average. All and all, not too bad for temperatures for the start of July, especially considering what we had to put up with last July. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Monday and Tuesday, with wetting rains covering much of Lincoln National Forest and the Black Range in southern New Mexico. The main weather hazard will be flash flooding due to locally heavy rains. Flooding may be magnified by burn scars in a few areas. The rest of the week some drying will occur, but we should still have enough moisture and wetting precip in place to keep fire danger generally on the low side. Relative humidity will remain fairly high, dipping to 30-40% in the afternoon. Overnight recoveries will be excellent (70-80%). Light and variable ridge top winds will shift to the east by Tuesday, generally 5 to 10 mph. Smoke ventilation will be Fair to Good during the daytime hours. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for early July. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 72 92 71 / 30 50 60 70 Sierra Blanca 88 66 84 65 / 50 50 60 50 Las Cruces 94 69 92 68 / 30 40 70 70 Alamogordo 94 68 90 66 / 40 50 70 70 Cloudcroft 71 51 68 50 / 80 60 80 80 Truth or Consequences 94 70 92 67 / 40 40 70 60 Silver City 88 64 87 63 / 50 40 70 50 Deming 96 69 94 67 / 30 30 60 70 Lordsburg 93 70 94 68 / 20 30 40 40 West El Paso Metro 95 73 93 71 / 40 50 70 70 Dell City 94 68 89 68 / 50 60 60 60 Fort Hancock 96 71 92 71 / 50 50 60 60 Loma Linda 86 66 84 65 / 40 50 60 60 Fabens 95 72 93 71 / 30 50 60 60 Santa Teresa 94 70 91 68 / 30 50 70 70 White Sands HQ 94 72 90 70 / 40 40 70 80 Jornada Range 94 69 90 67 / 30 40 70 70 Hatch 96 69 94 68 / 30 30 70 70 Columbus 94 71 92 68 / 30 40 60 70 Orogrande 92 69 89 67 / 40 40 70 70 Mayhill 81 56 76 55 / 70 60 80 70 Mescalero 81 55 78 54 / 70 60 80 80 Timberon 78 53 75 53 / 70 60 80 80 Winston 88 58 86 57 / 50 40 80 50 Hillsboro 92 66 90 64 / 40 30 70 60 Spaceport 94 68 91 66 / 30 30 70 70 Lake Roberts 88 58 88 58 / 60 40 80 50 Hurley 91 63 89 62 / 40 30 70 50 Cliff 96 61 96 59 / 50 40 60 40 Mule Creek 91 65 92 64 / 50 40 60 30 Faywood 91 66 89 64 / 40 30 70 60 Animas 92 68 94 67 / 30 30 40 50 Hachita 92 68 93 66 / 30 30 50 60 Antelope Wells 90 67 91 66 / 40 40 60 60 Cloverdale 85 63 87 63 / 40 40 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 27/15/30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1025 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-061630- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1025 AM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once again this afternoon over the mountainous terrain of southern New Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially for the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Wilderness. Flash flooding will be the primary hazard. Rain amounts in excess of 2 inches per hour may quickly make back country roadways and low water crossings impassable. Hikers and campers should take proper precautions from the threat of lightning and running water. More isolated storm coverage is expected over the lowlands later this evening, with localized flooding and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph possible. Loose outdoor objects should be secured near thunderstorms, and people should go indoors when thunder is heard. Light rain showers may linger into the early morning hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A daily chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorms will focus over high mountain terrain, with more isolated activity in the lowlands. The main threat will continue to be locally heavy rain and flooding, although a few strong storms will be possible on Tuesday, producing gusty winds and small hail. Thunderstorm coverage will diminish Thursday and Friday as drier air moves into the region before returning next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, however SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to relay reports of severe weather and flooding to WFO EPZ when it occurs. Dennhardt
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:14 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway 130 south of Mayhill was closed due to flooding crossing the roadway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972282.