An unusually deep upper low for late April dropped into the Borderland region with an associated back door cold front. While most areas received rain, it was cold enough at the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains to bring heavy snow to Cloudcroft and Sunspot where up to 11 inches of snow was reported.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
An unusually deep upper low for late April dropped into the Borderland region with an associated back door cold front. While most areas received rain, it was cold enough at the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains to bring heavy snow to Cloudcroft and Sunspot where up to 11 inches of snow was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 10:10 PM MST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1110 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 ...UPDATED AVIATION... .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE Scattered -RA and an isolated TS continue to move across northern portions of the area. The best chance for rain overnight will be from SVC-TCS-ALM and north, with an isolated lightning strike possible across extreme northern locations. The Sacramento Mountains above 8000 feet will see the precip fall as snow with reduced VIS possible at times. Winds will become northeasterly at all terminals overnight with some gusts to 25KT likely in the north-south oriented valleys, including TCS, and along western mountain slopes. Showers are forecast to then move south towards DMN-LRU-ELP by 11Z, before tapering off and becoming focused over areas east of ELP after 16Z. TS will be possible east of ELP in the afternoon. Winds will remain easterly with gusts to 15-20KT in spots. CIGs will be SCT060-090 BKN 080-100 overnight and into the morning, then gradually raising to SCT120 SCT-BKN200 in the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Active weather continues today and through the rest of the work week. Isolated to scattered rain showers along with a few thunderstorms are possible through this portion of the forecast. Snow showers will be possible in elevations above 8000 feet. Also breezy winds persist over the next two or three days with the passage of this storm system. A warm up trend starts on Friday as the system moves away from the Borderland, and we will be reaching near normal temperatures on Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions and dry weather return on Sunday and Monday. Fair weather is back next week as an area of high pressure moves over southern New Mexico and far west Texas. && 29 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... Current water vapor imagery centers the upper low over southwest New Mexico, having progressed eastward today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed within the main vorticity lobe of the low, producing rain showers and a few gusty winds as is evident on doppler radar. Precipitation amounts range from 0.01-0.15" across the region so far, with locally higher amounts over the Sacramento Mountains. Currently expecting this weak "garden-variety" convection to linger into sunset with the best rain chances just west of the Rio Grande. Breezy west flow will continue into this evening, slowly veering to the north into the early morning hours as the low shifts eastward directly over El Paso and surface ridging along the southern Rockies advects a cool, moist airmass into the lowland basins. Winds will become northeasterly early Thursday morning, with gusty conditions likely along the west slopes of mountain chains. This is will be especially true along the Sacramento west slopes, where gusts to 40 mph will be possible. The upper low will shift southeast toward Big Bend Thursday morning, with model guidance confident in producing precipitation on the back side of the storm. Wrap around moisture and terrain forcing will allow for continued precipitation to fall across Otero County and far west Texas well into sunrise on Thursday. Rain chances will focus east of the Rio Grande Thursday morning, with generally light amounts once again. An analysis of wet bulb zero heights suggests snow accumulations will be possible over the high elevations of the Sacramento Mountains. Locations above 8,000 feet may see 1 to 3 inches of new snow accumulations with surface lows in the lower 30's. A rain/snow mix will be very common around 7,000 feet ASL of the Sacramento east slopes. A bit concerned about snow potential, as latest CAM runs suggest Advisory-criteria snowfall in Cloudcroft and higher. This is also supported by deterministic model 700-mb temperatures solutions. Whatever snow does fall will quickly melt away during the day, however some very late-season snow totals are not out of the question above 8,000 feet ASL. Thunderstorm chances will linger across the far eastern zones of the CWA, primarily in Hudpseth County Thursday afternoon. Elsewhere dry conditions are expected to return along with seasonably cool weather. Lowland temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal for late April, with highs around 70 degrees. && 30 .LONG TERM... Upper low takes its time to move away from the area as it slowly moves southward. Thus, keeping slight precipitation chances mainly across areas east of the Rio Grande on Friday and Saturday morning. The mountain areas will have snow showers in elevations above 8000 to 8500 feet. A few thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, and maybe Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a high amplitude upper ridge develops over the east Pacific and the US Southwest leading to a meridional flow aloft, which in turn advects cooler air. This will keep below normal temperatures on Friday, and we will struggle to reach near normal temps by Saturday. The ridge will be slowly flattened as another system moves towards the Rockies. On Saturday, we still have some POPs in the forecast mainly east of the Rio Grande due to the upper low stalling over northern Mexico. Hudspeth county will have the best chances for rain showers as the low lifts to the northeast towards the Trans-Pecos and the Permian Basin. We should be back to our normal dry regime by Saturday afternoon. And if we are dry that means the winds can return, right? Well, on Sunday an upper trough moving across the Central Rockies will lead to strong lee cyclogenesis over NE NM/SE CO (surface low ~984 mb). The pressure gradient near the surface tightens up resulting in breezy to windy conditions again due to west winds between 15 to 25 mph. A weaker low level cyclone (993 mb) is formed near the TX Panhandle bringing breezy winds again on Monday with speeds between 15 to 20 mph. An area of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern next week from Tuesday through Friday as seen in multiple global models. Therefore, dry weather, light winds and above normal temperatures will be the norm. However, a weak back door cold front on Tuesday may cool temperatures a bit. Although, confidence is kind of low with this feature. Otherwise, there is very good model agreement next week. && 29 .FIRE WEATHER... Low fire danger is expected once again on Thursday as precipitation chances linger across south-central New Mexico and far west Texas. Excellent morning relative humidity recoveries will be followed by continued moist conditions Thursday afternoon, with RH 20-30%. Breezy northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph will keep temperatures seasonably cool. Smoke ventilation will be Very Good to Excellent. Dry weather returns in New Mexico Friday and Saturday, while rain chances linger over west Texas as the upper low shifts over Big Bend National Park. Min RH will fall back to 15-25% across southwest New Mexico, although light 20-foot wind speeds will keep fire danger low. Strong west flow returns on Sunday along with a return of warm temperatures. This may be the next day where critical fire danger thresholds are met, as RH falls to 10% and winds of 20 to 30 mph develop in the afternoon. Red Flags are probable at this time for Sunday and possible once again next Monday. Dry and warm weather is likely throughout next week. && 30 && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 47 69 53 76 / 30 40 30 30 Sierra Blanca 42 63 43 66 / 20 30 30 40 Las Cruces 46 73 46 79 / 40 30 20 20 Alamogordo 44 69 43 77 / 50 50 20 20 Cloudcroft 30 43 31 53 / 70 70 20 20 Truth or Consequences 46 71 47 78 / 60 30 10 0 Silver City 41 66 44 73 / 50 10 0 0 Deming 43 72 43 78 / 40 20 20 20 Lordsburg 41 74 43 78 / 30 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 49 70 51 76 / 30 30 30 30 Dell City 42 66 42 72 / 50 60 40 30 Fort Hancock 43 71 45 74 / 20 40 40 40 Loma Linda 42 61 44 67 / 40 50 30 30 Fabens 45 71 48 75 / 20 40 40 30 Santa Teresa 43 69 45 74 / 30 30 30 30 White Sands HQ 47 68 51 75 / 40 50 20 20 Jornada Range 44 67 46 76 / 40 30 20 20 Hatch 45 71 44 79 / 40 30 20 20 Columbus 46 72 46 76 / 30 20 20 20 Orogrande 43 67 46 74 / 50 50 30 20 Mayhill 35 53 35 62 / 70 70 30 20 Mescalero 35 56 35 65 / 60 60 20 20 Timberon 31 52 32 61 / 60 70 30 20 Winston 33 66 34 72 / 60 30 0 0 Hillsboro 43 69 43 75 / 50 20 10 10 Spaceport 44 69 43 77 / 50 30 20 10 Lake Roberts 35 68 37 75 / 50 20 0 0 Hurley 36 69 38 75 / 40 10 10 0 Cliff 33 78 36 84 / 40 10 0 0 Mule Creek 38 72 43 78 / 30 0 0 0 Faywood 41 67 43 74 / 50 10 10 10 Animas 40 73 42 77 / 30 0 0 10 Hachita 40 70 42 76 / 30 20 20 20 Antelope Wells 40 69 44 74 / 30 20 20 20 Cloverdale 40 66 45 71 / 30 0 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 32-Pegram/30-Dennhardt/29-Crespo-Jones
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 620 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-291230- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 620 AM MDT Wed Apr 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight An upper level storm system will move across the region today and bring clouds, lower temperatures and a chance for lowland rain and high mountain snows showers. We might even hear rumble of thunder or two. Snow fall totals above 7,000 feet will range from a trace to 1 inch, while in the lowlands we will see rain totals of a trace 0.25 inches. Our winds may be breezy this afternoon before turning to the north tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There will continue to be a slight chance for rain on Thursday, mainly east of the Rio Grande. Friday and Saturday will be warmer. On Sunday and Monday we will be warm, dry and windy with fire weather concerns returning to the forecast. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
The highest snowfall report around Cloudcroft was 11.0 inches 0.4 miles east-southeast of town. Other reports included 10.2 inches 1.8 miles southwest of Cloudcroft and 9.9 inches in Sunspot.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, April 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956081.