NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 29, 10:11 AM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 29, 10:11 AM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1111 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front just south and west of the area will move slowly
northeastward through the region tonight. A cold front will
approach and then likely stall in the Mid-Atlantic Monday and
Tuesday. The remnants of Ida are expected to move along the
front through the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday and Thursday.
High pressure will build into the Northeast Friday and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning forecast mostly on track. The overcast stratus seems to
have kept fog from developing. Will make appropriate
adjustments, but will not make significant changes.
Broad surface high pressure centered over Maine and the Canadian
Maritimes will gradually break down and lift to the north and
east later today. Weak low pressure currently east of the
Virginia/North Carolina coast will intensify a bit as the cold
front that passed south through the region on Saturday begins to
lift back north as a warm front.
Meanwhile, some shortwave energy at 500 mb will also pass
through the region. 500 mb high pressure remains centered over
the Southeast, but that will lose influence over the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic as it drift to the south, and the ridge begins
to break down.
Widespread stratus remains across the area and will likely stay
thru the afternoon due to the easterly flow that is in place. A
couple breaks in the overcast at times is possible however. As
onshore flow continues, and that front over the Mid-Atlantic begins
to lift back to the north, winds shift to more of a southeast flow.
Surface dew points climb back up into the low to mid 70s throughout.
As a result, PWATs will increase to over 2 inches across much of
New Jersey.
In terms of sensible weather, there is a slight chance or small
chance for showers and thunderstorms across most areas with a
better chance for southern New Jersey. This is due to bands of
convection rotating around the center of the low and retrograding
back towards the New Jersey coast. With the aforementioned high
PWATs over the area, the main threat will be for heavy rain
over the area. Localized flooding remains a possibility during
tstms later today.
Highs will top off in the 70s mainly north of the Fall Line,
and in the low 80s elsewhere.
Any showers and thunderstorms taper off in the evening. Patchy
fog develops once again. Another cold front approaches from
the west overnight. Some shortwave energy ahead of that front
may touch off some showers to the north and west in the pre-dawn
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, a potent shortwave trough will be moving through
southeastern Canada, with a trailing front moving into the
Northeast. With the warm front returning Sunday night through
the region, Monday will likely be a warm and humid day across
the area. Latest guidance keeps some cloudiness around for much
of the day, especially in the northern half of the CWA. This may
prevent temperatures from getting too warm, though with dew
points likely to be in the lower 70s, heat indices are forecast
to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s (north to south). This
cloud cover may also curtail more widespread convection during
peak heating, though the sparse nature of most of the high-
resolution guidance seems unlikely given the ambient
thermodynamic environment. The front will likely be well
northwest of the region during the day, so convective initiation
will rely on smaller-scale effects. Thus, extent of cloud cover
will be an important factor in convective coverage/intensity
during the day. Will also need to see if a residual warm layer
atop the boundary layer will curtail more widespread storms (via
the lingering influence of the low-level high retreating into
the northwestern Atlantic). For now, think fairly high PoPs are
warranted, as convection is often not difficult to come by in
these patterns.
As for potential impacts of the convection, model soundings
indicate high PWs (2+ inches), weak shear (generally less than
15 kt through a deep layer), and ample instability given
sufficient heating. This would result in slow-moving pulse
storms producing torrential downpours and isolated microbursts.
Some convection may linger into the overnight hours, especially
given the approaching front. However, there should be a
noticeable decrease in coverage/intensity during the night.
Tuesday may end up being mostly dry as weak/transient ridging
moves through the region as the cold front sags into and perhaps
even mostly through the CWA. However, certainly cannot rule out
some isolated/scattered showers and storms as poleward advection
of warm/moist air begins in earnest downstream of Ida. High
temperatures on Tuesday may be a challenge with the front in the
area, potential cloud cover/precipitation impacts, etc. For now,
stuck with highs mostly on the warmer side as downstream ridging
begins in earnest from the increasingly baroclinic Ida.
As Ida continues its approach Tuesday night, downstream
precipitation should approach/increase as an upper-level jet
streak begins to strengthen in the Northeast and very favorable
right-rear quadrant jet dynamics begin to occur across the
region. Substantial deep-layer lift atop increasing warm/moist
advection along the reinforced baroclinic zone from the
lingering front will promote rapid development of a broad shield
of rain and storms. With strong low-level moisture flux
downstream of Ida, widespread heavy rainfall will likely develop
in earnest. These effects will mostly be on Wednesday and
Wednesday night for our area, but we may see some of this
precipitation reach us by late Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread heavy rainfall and flooding possible Wednesday and
Wednesday night...
The remnants of Ida will make the move through the Mid-Atlantic
region Wednesday and Thursday, as it interacts with a strong
shortwave trough digging southeastward from south-central
Canada. A deep/nearly-neutral trough will develop in the
eastern U.S. by Wednesday night with substantial large-scale
lift downstream, aided by strong upper-level divergence from an
intensifying jet streak atop the Saint Lawrence Valley. With
highly anomalous tropospheric moisture advected into the region,
this is a classic setup for a widespread/significant flooding
event for the northeastern U.S.
Models are converging on the eventual track of the remnant low,
with the 00z CMC making a noticeable shift northward, much more
in line with the ECMWF/GFS. The consensus track would lead to
the heaviest rainfall axis generally in the northern half of the
CWA, with alarming QPF of 2-5+ inches in a broad region along
and north of the track of the low. Meanwhile, the warm sector
may sneak into the southern CWA, where a threat of strong to
severe storms would exist (given sufficient instability and
strong vertical shear). In short, the latest models suggest a
multi-faceted and rather impactful event for the region.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts, as we continue to
fine-tune the forecast axis of heaviest rainfall and the areas
with the highest risk of severe weather.
Wraparound rain/showers may continue through much of Thursday
before the low moves farther offshore. Fairly stiff northerly
winds will likely commence, continuing through Friday. With a
building high moving into the region, Friday and Saturday should
be dry and rather pleasant temperature-wise. So there is light
at the end of the metaphorical tunnel.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today (12Z through 00Z)...Widespread stratus remains over the
area, and MVFR CIGs are likely to range from 1500 to 2500 feet
through the day. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible, but best chances
at KMIV/KACY, and will carry TEMPO groups in those TAFs for
convection. Heavy rain is possible from time to time. Will leave
convection out of the rest of the TAFs due to low confidence.
Winds E less than 10 kt, gradually becoming SE in the afternoon.
Moderate confidence.
Tonight (00Z through 12Z)...Any convection ends in the evening.
MVFR CIGs lower to IFR. through the night. Patchy fog with MVFR
VSBY. LGT/VRB winds. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Monday and Monday night...Any lingering fog/low clouds in the
morning should dissipate with predominant VFR through the day.
Scattered showers/storms will likely develop during the
afternoon/evening, however, with brief restrictions possible.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 kt becoming more westerly Monday night.
Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...Mostly VFR expected with northwest winds up to 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.
Tuesday night through Thursday...Long periods of sub-VFR
expected with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms possible through
much of this time frame (but especially Wednesday and Wednesday
night). High impacts to the terminals are expected. Winds will
trend from northeast to east to southeast Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but become more variable Wednesday night depending
on the exact track of the low moving through the region. North
winds of 10 to 15+ kt possible on Thursday. Moderate overall
confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas are slowly subsiding across the waters, albeit
slowly. We expect sub-SCA conditions the rest of today and
tonight. Scattered showers and perhaps a tstm across the srn NJ
and DE waters elsewhere mostly fair.
Outlook...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected through Wednesday, but
advisory conditions may develop on the waters by Wednesday night
and Thursday. There is a slight chance of showers/storms Monday
and Tuesday, and a good chance of rain/storms Wednesday and
Thursday.
Rip Currents...
There is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches today due to
onshore flow and waves to around 3 feet in the surf zone.
On Monday, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents for the northern New Jersey beaches due
to lingering rough surf. For the southern New Jersey and
Delaware beaches, there is a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
Synopsis...CMS
Near Term...MPS/PO
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...CMS
Aviation...CMS/MPS/PO
Marine...CMS/MPS/PO