Arizona, 2021Heat in Arizona, August 29, 2021
August 29, 2021 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Hot temperatures just above 100 degrees in the Tucson Metro Area were experienced on August 29. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that heat was the primary cause of death for one male found in the city.
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- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Hot temperatures just above 100 degrees in the Tucson Metro Area were experienced on August 29. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that heat was the primary cause of death for one male found in the city.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 29, 8:44 AM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 29, 8:44 AM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
844 AM MST Sun Aug 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue,
increasing in activity this week as tropical moisture moves into
the area. Concerns for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
will also rise as a result.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The 12Z KTWC sounding still around 1.3 inches
precipitable water, but showing less shear and lower convective
potential compared to yesterday. SREF plumes are forecasting the
lower shear and CAPE environment to continue into max heating this
afternoon. Not as organized as yesterday but a scattered
thunderstorm forecast still looks good with a hint of merging
outflows in Pinal county late in the day as per latest HRRR and UA
WRF-RRGFS. Current forecast has good trends.
Hurricane Nora continues to struggle a bit as it takes a track too
near the west coast of Mexico for it's own health. Still pushing
a long fetch of deep moisture northward toward Arizona for a
sustained increase in storm chances this week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 30/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-12k ft MSL through the forecast period. ISOLD-
SCT SHRA/TSRA after 30/19Z. MVFR conditions and mountain-top
obscurations near TSRA, along with wind gusts up to 45 kts.
Otherwise, SFC wind favoring an ELY/SELY direction and generally
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected for much of the forecast area through Monday. Deeper
moisture will then overspread the area Tuesday through Thursday as
moisture associated with the remnants of Nora shifts northward. This
will result in increasing precipitation chances mid to late next
week across southeast Arizona, with potentially heavy rainfall at
times. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph when not
influenced by thunderstorms gusts.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM MST Sun Aug 29 2021/
Radar echoes have diminished across the forecast area early this
morning, with a few remnant light showers lingering in northern
Sonora. IR satellite imagery shows cloud tops gradually warming
and diminishing from east to west. PWs range 1.6" in western Pima
County to around 1" east toward the NM border. The overall pattern
is defined by a weak upper ridge to our north, producing east to
southeast steering flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
again this afternoon, although MLCAPEs aren't forecast to be as
unstable as yesterday. This should inhibit the overall severity of
storms, but models still develop isolated to scattered
precipitation into the evening hours. HREF neighborhood
probabilities focus on two favored areas of development--one being
over the higher terrain of Graham/Greenlee Counties and the other
south to southwest of Tucson along the International Border.
Monday's activity looks to nudge up as moisture continues to
increase out ahead of the tropical system Nora. Currently Nora is a
category 1 hurricane, drifting up the Mexican coastline near
Mazatlan. The NHC forecast track brings Nora up the coast,
eventually eroding as it turns north on Tue/Wed moving across
northern Sonora. Regardless of the exact path of Nora, models still
anticipate a surge of moisture and widespread rainfall chances
Tuesday through Thursday. WPC has issued a slight risk of excessive
rainfall beginning Tuesday as PWs increase west to south of Tucson.
This area matches up with the GEFS mean QPF forecast values being in
the 90-95th percentiles. Heavy rainfall potential becomes more
expansive on Wednesday, which based on the ECMWF EFI and GEFS
forecasts should be the most active period. The precise area of
coverage remains in question, whether the north/south axis of heavy
rain sits across western or central Arizona. Thursday could
transition from heavy rain toward a more severe weather scenario as
20 kts of mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow sets up across the
region.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
Howlett/Dang/Meyer
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Heat, Tucson Metro Area
- When
- August 29, 10:00 AM MST to 8:00 PM MST
- Where
- Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Temperatures 5 degrees above normal, just over 100 degrees, occurred in the Tucson Metro Area causing the Moderate Heat Risk category to be reached on August 29. The Pima County Medical Examiner confirmed that heat was the primary cause of death for one male found on the northwest side of Tucson.
- Heat
- Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Arizona, August 29 to 31, 202112 deaths · 6 events
- Tropical Storm and Flash Flooding in Mississippi, August 29 to 30, 2021$2.5 million · 52 events
- Tropical Storm in Louisiana, August 29, 2021$2.8 million · 5 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Arizona, August 29 to 31, 2021$180,000 · 55 kt wind · 10 events
- Debris Flows and Flood in California, August 29 to 31, 2021$111,000 · 18 events
- Lightning Strike in Texas, August 29, 2021$250,000 · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Tropical Storm in Alabama, August 29 to 31, 20213 injured · EF1 · 12 events
- Flood and Damaging Wind in Texas, August 29, 2021$100,000 · 65 kt wind · 2 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Wind in California, August 29 to 30, 2021$66,000 · 62 kt wind · 5 events
- Flash Flood and Hail in Virginia, August 29, 20212 injured · $21,000 · 50 kt wind · 7 events
- Damaging Winds in Michigan, August 29, 2021$17,000 · 52 kt wind · 10 events
- Damaging Winds in Indiana, August 29 to 30, 2021$19,000 · 60 kt wind · 5 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 983923.