Upper trough approaches the west coast yielding breezy conditions with isolated high based showers and thunderstorms over a very dry low level airmass.
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The episode as NWS REV wrote it up.
Upper trough approaches the west coast yielding breezy conditions with isolated high based showers and thunderstorms over a very dry low level airmass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 21, 1:50 PM PST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
250 PM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds today and Tuesday as a cooldown back to near normal
takes place, leading to increased fire danger. A few thunderstorms
are possible tonight into Tuesday in northeast CA and far
northwestern NV. Additional storm chances exist for portions of the
Sierra and northwestern NV through the middle of the week. Another
heatwave is looking likely by next weekend into the start of the
following week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* Main Forecast Concern: Elevated fire weather danger through
Tuesday due to low relative humidity and increased winds. There
is a chance for dry lightning tonight across northeastern
California and far northern Washoe County. For more information,
please see the fire weather section below.
* Breezy Winds: Winds will increase beginning this afternoon through
mid-week as a trough moves over the Western US. The strongest
winds are forecast from US-50 north today and along the Eastern
Sierra on Tuesday. For the rest of today, expect southwest to west
winds 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Locally higher gusts to
40 mph are possible in wind-prone areas. Air and ground travel
impacts, as well as choppy conditions on area lakes, are expected.
* Thunderstorm Chances Return: With the trough approaching the US
West Coast today, moist onshore flow will occur above the dry
boundary layer in northeast California and southern Oregon this
evening and overnight into Tuesday. Elevated thunderstorms are
possible with limited moisture and fast movement (storm motions 35-
45 mph from the south-southeast). Isolated dry lightning strikes
are the main hazard along with some brief light rain. Based on the
latest CAMs (HRRR/NAM3km/WRFARW/WRFFV3), the highest chances for
storms will be across northern Lassen County, the Surprise Valley,
and northern Washoe County. There is a slight chance (near 10%)
that a cell or two form as far south as Truckee. Additional
chances for storms are expected each afternoon Wednesday through
Friday along the Sierra and over western Nevada as moist southerly
flow continues across the region between the departing low and the
area of high pressure to our southeast. About a 10-15% chance for
a storm to impact any particular location
* Short-lived Relief from Heat: A few degrees cooler this afternoon
with some relief in sight as a gradual cooling trend ensues
through Thursday. Upper 80s to low 90s are expected for the lower
valleys of western Nevada with 70s to around 80 for Sierra valley
locations. Enjoy the cooling while it lasts as there is rising
confidence in another heatwave and near record high temperatures
this weekend.
* Possible Heatwave this Weekend into Next Week: There continues to
be exceptional agreement in the ensemble and even deterministic
model guidance regarding a strong ridge building over the Pacific
Northwest by this weekend. Triple-digit heat may return to the
lower valleys of Nevada by Saturday or Sunday. Warmer temperatures
with some moist flow from the Gulf of California could also bring
the potential for afternoon thunderstorms during this time period,
however, the exact details of where and which days is still to be
determined.
-Johnston
&&
.AVIATION...
A cooling trend begins today into Thursday as an area of low
pressure moves into the West-PacNW. Afternoon and evening winds
will increase gusts into the 25-30 kt range with locally higher
gusts possible mainly over the Sierra front east into the Basin and
Range of western Nevada today. Some light turbulence remains
possible near and east of the Sierra.
Thunderstorm chances increase tonight, primarily north of KSVE and
Gerlach (10-20%). These storms will be fast-moving and high based,
so the main hazards to aviators will be lightning and gusty/erratic
outflow winds. There is a slight chance (near 10%) of storms forming
as far south as KTRK. Expect afternoon wind gusts 25-30 kts Tuesday
with VFR conditions.
-Johnston
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure near the California coast will bring a temporary cool
down Tuesday-Wednesday, though that comes at the price of dry-gusty
afternoon/evening winds across the region. Very limited moisture
with this low, so don't expect much overnight humidity recovery the
next couple days. There is increasing confidence in another heat
wave for next weekend.
Gusty Winds into this evening and Tuesday afternoon...
So far gusts have remained near 30 mph with a few gusts up near 35
mph. Expect these winds to continue into this evening, then drop off
by 9-10 PM this evening. Gusty south-southwest winds will
resurface tomorrow afternoon with peak gusts of 30-35 mph along
US-395 from roughly Carson-Douglas through Mono County.
Thunderstorms return to the forecast...
The low off the CA coast also opens the door to a overnight storms
across northeast CA and northwest NW. Simulations keep most of the
activity to our north in Oregon and SW Idaho with 10-20% chance of
cells developing over Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe after 8 PM.
Any storms that develop will produce little if any rainfall, so new
fire starts are possible.
Thunderstorms should redevelop tomorrow afternoon across the
northern portions of Lassen and Washoe Counties, including the
Surprise Valley.
Wednesday to Friday are looking interesting as the low hangs around
northern California. Quite a bit of uncertainty in location of the
low, but it presence is enough to raise the thunderstorm awareness
bar for the second half of the week. For now thunderstorms should be
favored over the Sierra and far western NV with overnight storms not
out of the question. Brong
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-423-429.
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ001.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Washoe Lake
in NVZ003.
Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday NVZ458.
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ071.
Red Flag Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Tuesday
CAZ270-271.
Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.
Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday CAZ278.
&&
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/renoThe Reno radar (KRGX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:29 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Majuba RAWS peak wind gust during preceding hour, from high based t-storms over a very dry low level airmass.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nevada in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nevada, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958193.