Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 10, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
248 PM PDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm/hot temperatures will continue for the next
several days as strong high pressure brings unrelenting heat.
WInds will be breezy during the afternoons and there could be some
isolated thunderstorms possible in central Nevada.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. A large ridge of high
pressure continues to exert its influence across northern and
central Nevada through the short term. Some clouds have formed in
central Nevada while in the north, skies are mainly sunny. Look
for overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Kept in the smoke and haze
during the overnight hours as winds will be weak.

The ridge of high pressure will move a bit west a bit on Sunday.
This means a continuation of the very warm to hot temperatures. In
fact, tomorrow is expected to be the hottest day of the year with
highs in the upper 90s to upper 100s at all locations in the
forecast area. Winds will be breezy, especially in the northern
sections but speeds are expected to remain below 30 mph. Moisture
and limited instability will move into central Nevada and bring
isolated dry thunderstorms to the area.

Look for the ridge to sink to the south and west for Monday. Once
again, the heat will be on for northern and central Nevada. Highs
will be in the upper 90s to mid 100s as a result. Also, there will
be limited moisture and instability pushing north, fueling another
instance of isolated dry thunderstorms. Winds will be breezy,
especially in the northern sections of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Monday Evening through next Saturday.

High pressure will remain centered over southern Nevada through
next week. In addition to temperatures being 5-10 degrees above
normal, in the upper 90s to 100s, westerly winds Tuesday through
Saturday will continue to bring smoke and hazy conditions to the
region if the Beckwourth Complex fire in California, and the
Bootleg fire in Oregon continue to burn. Smoke and haze adds an
additional challenge to forecasting both high, and low
temperatures as daytime smoke can suppress high temperatures, and
smoke at night can aid in keeping low temperatures warmer.

A chance of isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across White
Pine and northeastern Nye county Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
afternoons. Mid-level moisture looks to build slightly over these
areas but confidence is still low on if there will be enough to
produce any measurable rainfall. Current thinking continues to be
storms of the Virga variety which may produce erratic gusty winds.
With the state having above average heat for and extended period
of time with little in the way of rainfall, fire weather concerns
continue to grow. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper
50s to 60s throughout next week, with the exception of
southeastern Elko county, where West Wendover is expected to see
lows in the 70s throughout next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke from ongoing wildfires in California will bring
periods of reduced vsby across the 5 TAF sites. As a result, MVFR
vsbys will be possible. Winds will be breezy, especially across
the northern TAF sites, where gusts of 20-25KT will be possible in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The hot and mainly dry conditions expected to
continue through Monday and possibly even Tuesday. Winds will be
breezy to locally windy each afternoon, with Sunday and Monday
seeing the strongest magnitudes. Some locales could briefly reach
red flag thresholds, but as of right now, don't think it will be
widespread so only going with elevated concerns. In addition,
continued mid-level moisture and instability could set off some
isolated dry storms and/or virga and these could produce outflow
winds of 35-45 mph are possible. The locations of storms are
expected across central NV south of US 50 today and then
potential expands north and east on Sunday to include much of
central NV and mountains of northeast NV.

For the rest of the week, temperatures will continue to remain
above normal levels. Winds will be breezy each afternoon with
gusty winds possible Thursday afternoon. Central Nevada could see
isolated storms through the period.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Northern Elko County-
Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko
County-White Pine County.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Monday for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Southeastern Elko County.

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