Decaying mesoscale convective systems affected the ArkLaMiss region during the overnight and morning hours of the 10th through the 12th. These storms brought some heavy rain, which resulted in localized flash flooding to portions of the region as well as some damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Decaying mesoscale convective systems affected the ArkLaMiss region during the overnight and morning hours of the 10th through the 12th. These storms brought some heavy rain, which resulted in localized flash flooding to portions of the region as well as some damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 5:16 AM CST, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 616 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 12Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: Some IFR/LIFR ceilings are ongoing at PIB/HBG and also across NW at GLH, GWO and MEI through 14-15Z. Some morning convection is developing across SW MS and may make it to JAN/HKS by mid-morning between 14-16Z. After that, focus will shift to developing showers/storms, most of this looks to occur in the 17-22z window and across the E/SE half. Most of the Sat evening looks to be quiet. /CME/ && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight...Today looks to be somewhat similar to yesterday in that the better focus for rain/storms will be over the S/SE. However, today we looked to have a bit better moisture advection into the area along with a more supportive low level flow regime that supports more convergence than prev days. Also, there will be a subtle wave in the upper levels that will help promote divergence aloft which in turn will help with low level convergence. What this means is better PoPs than the prev days and will carry 50-70% for the afternoon with the best location across the SE half. Highs today may run 1-2 degrees lower as much of the area should get a faster start to the activity. Still, look for upper 80s to lower 90s. As for strong/severe storm potential today. I won't rule out some stronger storms and even a couple severe storms as the environment may be just a bit more favorable than prev days. Cells with the best chance for gusty winds will be those that move eastward. At this time, this is a low probability situation and will not advertise with any graphics. Activity will begin to diminish by later afternoon and into the evening. While we may be quiet, there looks to be a decent linear MCS to take shape to our N/NW across the Mid South. This will serve to push a cold pool southward late in the tonight period and bring increasing rain chances to the northern parts of the cwa. Additionally, this cold pool should have enough vigor to make it into our N/NW and cool temps a couple degrees lower than guidance is offering. As for storms, this MCS will be moving into a more stable and less favorable environment and thus dissipating as it enters our NW areas. We may see some wind gusts to 30-40 mph, but not anticipating any severe activity. /CME/ Late weekend-next week (Sun-next Fri)... Sunday: Upper jet energy will dive SE out of the Rockies & amplify a trough over the Great Lakes/Ozarks & into the S Plains. Surface low will develop across the mid-MS Valley dragging a cold front down through the Ozarks/ArkLaTex. With increasing low-level flow (i.e. 30kts W-SW bulk shear), organized cold pool/multicell remains possible. Some ongoing convective cluster looks to be weakening in the morning hours but this outflow could serve some impetus for later convective development. Gusty winds will be the main threat. With high moisture & increasing low-level Theta E convergence, quick heavy downpours along the W-SW sagging boundary will bring heavy rain & isolated flash flooding potential. Global consensus continue to indicate some localized +3-4 inch totals for areas along & NW of the Natchez Trace. Maintained the "Limited" for flash flooding potential but expanded this further E-SE & "Marginal" for isolated severe storms for Sun afternoon through early evening, mainly between 1-9PM. Main adjustments to the "Marginal" were to include Interstate 20 corridor from the Jackson metro to the E into Meridian area. 00Z HRRR & other CAMs indicate gusty wind potential. In addition, some gradient winds of 15-20mph, with brief gusts up to 25mph are possible ahead of the SE propagating convective complex/cold pool. No need for mention in the HWO just yet but something to keep an eye on. Highs were lowered a couple of degrees towards cooler consensus raw guidance based on some guidance being on the warm side of the MOS envelope & rain/storms around. Next week (Monday): As the closed low rotates over the Ozarks, the synoptic pattern will be caught in between two deep ridges, one over the Desert SW & another the subtropical Atlantic. This will keep the pattern slow to pivot NE, until the heights fall, closed low becomes less closed off & better PVA ejects the trough energy NE. Lingering high moisture, lapse rates & some cooler thermo temps aloft will bring increased low-level moisture convergence & scattered-numerous convective coverage Monday. Another shortwave perturbation will help increased ascent/lingering 20kt low-level flow. This pattern will continue to favor organized convective potential for isolated strong-severe gusty multicell storms. A "Marginal" for gusty isolated strong-severe storms could be possible in future forecasts. Due to lingering high moisture & NE backbuilding vectors, heavy downpours & isolated flash flooding remains possible. However, with less moisture convergence, not confident to continue mention in HWO into Mon afternoon. Tuesday-Friday: Expect the trough & front to lift NE & W Atlantic subtropical ridge to build SW underneath the trough. This will help drive out the strongest low-level moisture convergence/soupy deep moisture & leading to less focused coverage & more diurnal, scattered potential into Tues & especially mid-late week (i.e. Wed- Fri). Near normal heat & humidity will build in by mid-late week. Lapse rates will remain subtle, with isolated strong storm & quick heavy downpour/isolated flash flooding potential through the work week. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 74 89 73 / 58 9 80 69 Meridian 90 72 89 72 / 53 16 67 55 Vicksburg 90 76 89 73 / 43 9 82 77 Hattiesburg 89 73 89 74 / 64 13 68 32 Natchez 89 74 88 72 / 51 8 78 58 Greenville 92 71 87 71 / 37 27 92 79 Greenwood 91 71 87 70 / 38 24 92 85 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && CME/DC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 432 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ019-025>066-072>074- 110945- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Sunflower- Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw- Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee- Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren- Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson- Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence- Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 432 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible Sunday afternoon through early evening in southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana & central to north- central Mississippi. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low-lying and urban areas, Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana & central to north-central Mississippi. Rainfall totals between two to three inches, with locally higher amounts possible, could fall within a short period of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday through Sunday night. MSZ018-110945- Bolivar- 432 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Tonight Tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible Sunday afternoon through early evening in southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana & central to north- central Mississippi. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low-lying and urban areas, Sunday afternoon through Sunday night in southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana & central to north-central Mississippi. Rainfall totals between two to three inches, with locally higher amounts possible, could fall within a short period of time. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through Sunday night. 23 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding stranded a vehicle and neared a mobile home along Tower Road.
An outbuilding was destroyed, some tree limbs were snapped, a tree was uprooted and the roof of another outbuilding was damaged.
Several homes were damaged in the Yokena area. One home received roof damage and another was destroyed by falling trees. Several trees were also blown down, one of which fell onto a power line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 959443, 959356, 959444.