Ample rainfall occurred during May across southwestern Nebraska. This led to the elimination of drought conditions over this portion of Nebraska during the first week of May.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LBF wrote it up.
Ample rainfall occurred during May across southwestern Nebraska. This led to the elimination of drought conditions over this portion of Nebraska during the first week of May.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:07 PM CST, 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1207 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Split flow pattern aloft with a cutoff low located over northern Mexico and ridging extending from SoCal northeastward into the northern Rockies. A long wave trough was located across the northeast U.S. and mid Atlantic states. This puts western and north central Nebraska in difluent northwesterly flow aloft. The ridging further west is in the process of being broken down as height falls encroach from the PacNW into the northern Rockies. This increasingly zonal flow is allowing lee trough development at the surface over the northern High Plains as evidenced by surface pressure falls over eastern MT and western ND. Strong insolation this morning allowing temps to rise quickly into the upper 60s to mid 70s prior to Noon LT. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 Biggest short term issues revolve around anomalously high temperatures for Saturday and the resultant fire weather concerns across the area. As upper height falls continue to overspread Nebraska tonight into Sunday, surface low pressure will translate across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. The attendant cold front will drop south across the Dakotas. Meanwhile the more significant height falls aloft will precede the next PV anomaly dropping into the southwestern U.S. This will allow a shift of low level winds to southwesterly and serve to build a low level thermal ridge into the western Sandhills and southwest NE Saturday. This downslope flow will set the stage for deep mixing leading to low RH across the area. See the fire weather subsection below for further details. This thermal trough will be in place ahead of the southward moving cold front mentioned previously. This front will lose its upper support as the associated upper short wave weakens. This will allow the front to stall across the northern portion of the state Saturday night due also to an increasing LLJ Saturday night. Just ahead of the front in the Panhandle and eastern WY, weak instability will be in place to promote terrain-based development of showers and storms which are progged to move east into the Panhandle by most deterministic and CAM solutions. Any storms that form will be high- based as the deep mixing mentioned earlier will force high LCLs in the dry low levels. Result will likely be limited precip making it to the ground but the potential for gusty winds associated with evaporating precip. Further north by evening, despite the weakening of the frontal gradient, the LLJ will increase during the evening helping to develop and/or sustain convection along and north of the front in north central NE into the overnight. The resultant convection may help to push the front a little further south overnight. As for the anomalous temperatures, ensembles show very little variance from the 25th through even the 90th percentile suggesting high confidence in temps reaching 90 or above in some locations which translates to around 20-25 degrees above average for this time of year. 850mb temp are progged to be well above the 90 percent moving ave for this time of year and within a degree or two Celsius of max values in the last 30 yrs. However, most record high values are in the mid to upper 90s for Saturday. The exception is BBW where the record is 93 and NBM probabilistic guidance suggest a 56 percent chance of exceeding this. The forecast will be just a tad short of this as confidence is not that high, but having the record broke at BBW is certainly possible. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 The previously referenced PV anomaly dropping into the southwestern U.S. will continue southeast and carve out a trough over the intermountain west and into the Plains through mid week, while also finally kicking out the closed low over northern Mexico. Weaker short waves progressing through the emerging southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push the original front southward Sunday. Deterministic solutions are not in agreement on where the surface boundary will stall Sunday evening but as instability pools ahead of the front and convergence increases along it, more widespread thunderstorms will develop along it, most of which will be southeast of the forecast area. A secondary cold front associated with northern stream energy will then move through the area Monday and while showers will be possible along and behind this front, the greater focus will be in upslope favored areas of the High Plains and further west into the front range. Yet another PV anomaly originating in the faster northern stream will drop into the Plains by Wednesday continuing the chances for rain into mid week. As is usually the case in very progressive upper patterns, timing is the key and ensemble clustering is somewhat nebulous on resolving these details. However there is good confidence in a cooler and slightly more active pattern through mid week. Beyond this a return to ridging aloft and drying conditions is looking likely by week's end. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat May 1 2021 Currently no VIS or CIG concerns are expected for the TAF period. Until about 14Z for both KVTN and 12Z for KLBF, some LLWS is expected up to 45kts from the southwest. Once sunrise hits, this is expected to dissipate. Other than that, winds will remain around 10- 12 kts, or less, throughout the 24 hr period. No amendment is scheduled for the KVTN terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 The previously mentioned fire weather concerns for Saturday are highlighted by the notorious upper pattern of a breakdown of the upper ridge which promotes a thermal ridge building into the Sandhills. This is a classic setup for anomalously warm temperatures and low RH values. Since this also focuses a surface trough associated with light winds as well, the juxtaposition of low RH values with high wind speeds becomes a little more challenging. Current confidence level of this happening is highest in fire zones 219 and 209. NBM probabilistic guidance of an ensemble of several tens of models suggest less than a 40% chance of wind speeds exceeding 25 mph so current thinking is we will not issue a Fire Weather watch or Red Flag warning at this time. However this will certainly be watched closely as one additional big concern is a weak recovery overnight tonight, with Max RH values only reaching 55-65%. Calls to area fire partners suggest green up is proceeding but some burn potential still remains especially in some of the higher Sandhills and low RH favored aspects. Again, as this is border line we will monitor this potential going forward. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte LONG TERM...Stoppkotte AVIATION...NMJ/Sinclair FIRE WEATHER...Stoppkotte
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service North Platte NE 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-012000- Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden- Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson- Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier- Western Cherry- 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 30 2021 /155 PM MDT Fri Apr 30 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central Nebraska. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into this evening as humidity values remain low across the area and winds gust to around 20 miles per hour. Overnight humidity recovery will be limited to 50 to 65 percent. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow with daytime humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s and wind gusts approaching 20 mph. Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening for much of western and north central Nebraska. At this time, the threat for severe weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at http://www.weather.gov/northplatte
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
During the month of May, severe (D2) drought conditions improved across all of Hayes County. The cooperative station at Hayes Center reported 4.87 inches of precipitation for May. This was 1.31 inches above the normal of 3.56 inches.
Severe (D2) drought conditions improved during the month of May in Frontier county. The cooperative station at Curtis reported 6.31 inches of precipitation for the month. This was 2.62 inches above the normal of 3.69 inches. The cooperative station at Eustis 2NW reported 6.58 inches of precipitation in May. This was 3.00 inches above the normal of 3.58 inches.
During the month of May, severe (D2) drought conditions improved across the southern quarter of the county. The cooperative station at Wallace 2W reported 3.03 inches of precipitation for May. This was 0.44 inches below the normal of 3.47 inches. The cooperative station at Hershey 5SSE reported 4.04 inches of precipitation in May. This was 0.71 inches above the normal of 3.33 inches. At the North Platte Airport, 4.83 inches of precipitation fell which was 1.48 inches above the normal of 3.35 inches. At the cooperative station in Brady, 5.17 inches of precipitation fell during the month.
During the month of May, severe (D2) drought conditions ended across Perkins county.
During the month of May, severe (D2) drought conditions improved across all of Chase county. The cooperative station at Imperial reported 5.83 inches of precipitation for the month. This was 2.66 inches above the normal of 3.17 inches. At the Imperial airport, 4.75 inches of precipitation was reported. This was 1.83 inches above the normal of 2.92 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 957146, 957148, 957150, 957144, 957145.