Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 22 to 23, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Tonight...

We still anticipate the chance for one or two strong storms this
afternoon/evening across portions of northeast Nebraska capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind.

The region remains under fast northwesterly flow both in the mid and
upper levels with the nose of a 300mb jet streak approaching
northeastern Nebraska this afternoon. In the mid-levels, CAMs
continue to indicate some moist advection spreading eastward this
afternoon. At the surface, a weak low continues to try to develop
across north-central Nebraska with a very subtle surface boundary
extending eastward across northeast Nebraska where we would
expect surface dewpoints to pool somewhat. We are really lacking
the moisture with current surface dewpoints only in the upper 50s
to low 60s in that region. We are also missing a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates but with enough heating this afternoon, we
should be able to spawn a few strong storms before dark which
should drive southeastward before fizzling out once we lose the
daytime heating. These few storms could be capable of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Upper level heights will build overhead during the day with
temperatures on the rise across the region. High temperatures across
our far northern counties along the SD border may reach 100 with
highs in the 90s across much of the area. Convection is forecast to
develop over the High Plains Wednesday evening and spread
eastward into eastern Nebraska aided by a strengthening low-level
jet.

Thursday and Thursday night...

MCS activity aided by the nose of a veered nocturnal low-level jet
may still be rolling through the southeastern CWA by daybreak. This
could leave a few remnant boundaries across the area through the
day. The location of these will be key to potential for severe
storms Thursday afternoon as a series of mid-level shortwaves drift
east across the Missouri River Valley. A surface low over western
Kansas by afternoon is forecast to lift northeast into the
forecast area through the evening hours where storms should be
able to focus and quickly become severe. These would likely
continue into the evening hours as a veered 50+ kt low-level jet
kicks in.

Weekend into early next week...

A mid/upper-level trough axis is forecast over the region during
this time-period with amplified ridging over the northern Rockies.
This should favor a relatively cool/wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through much of the
time period with the exception being in and around thunderstorms
mainly forecast for KOFK between 21z-23z. There is some chance
that thunderstorms could move southeast into KOMA between 23z-02z
but that will be addressed in later or amended TAF issuances due
to high forecaster uncertainty. Low-level wind shear is also
expected overnight at KLNK and KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Kern

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-231045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

A few isolated strong thunderstorms, some of which may be severe,
are possible through 10 PM. This will be mainly north of a David
City to Bellevue to Red Oak line. The most intense storms will be
capable of hail up to golfball size and locally damaging wind
gusts across northeast Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Tuesday

On Wednesday night, a complex of thunderstorms may move into the
area from the west with a risk for strong wind gusts. Additional
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may occur on Thursday
into Thursday night.

Other non-severe storms are possible from Friday into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of any hail or wind damage are appreciated.