Rip Current in Florida, June 22, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
328 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

While the front remains back across central Georgia and Alabama, a
shortwave crossing the forecast area helped to trigger the
widespread showers and storms this morning. That feature is now
getting ready to exit the area to the east, with some subsidence in
its wake keeping redevelopment fairly limited. Expect to see
scattered showers and storms across the western zones this
afternoon, but overall coverage should be a bit lower than
previously forecast.

Large-scale forcing looks fairly limited overnight, so expect less
coverage than last night. By Wednesday morning, another weak
shortwave will move through the base of the trough, helping to kick
off additional showers and thunderstorms by late morning through the
afternoon.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

The cold front over Central Alabama and Georgia will limp south
through our Florida counties on Wed night, then dissipate over the
far northeast Gulf on Thursday morning. The proximity of this weak
focus along with moderate convective instability will support air
mass convection, mainly in the afternoon over land and nighttime
over the warm Gulf waters.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Rainfall chances and amounts are will be on a slow diminishing
trend over the course of Friday and Saturday. Deep-layer southeast
flow will return on Friday as high pressure near Bermuda expands
into the Southeast U.S.. 500 mb heights will fluctuate around 5900
meters, which is a proxy for warmer and drier mid-level
conditions. This will provide a modest cap for thermal lift.
Precipitable Water (PW) values, which have been sky high in recent
days, will also dry back closer to normal early summer values. All
in all, we should settle back into a familiar pattern of
seabreeze-driven afternoon thunderstorms, with nocturnal storms
over the warm Gulf waters during the late night and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Scattered to numerous small, short-duration showers will pass
through the vicinity of all terminals for the remainder of the
afternoon. For ECP and TLH, an isolated lightning strike is
possible. Otherwise, cigs will lower again late tonight.
Scattered TSRA will impact terminals again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front over Central Alabama and Central Georgia will reach
the far northeast Gulf on Thursday morning and then dissipate.
Southwest breezes will diminish as the weakening front draws near.
High pressure northeast of Bermuda will expand into the Southeast
State, bringing a return of moderate to occasionally fresh
southeast breezes. Otherwise, gusty thunderstorm outflows will be
a concern for mariners through this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A widespread wetting rain has been observed across all districts
since last night. Showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and
Thursday will be limited to the more common afternoon variety
that fires up along the seabreeze front. Dispersion index values
will remain low across some districts each of the next two
afternoons, due mainly to light transport winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Have recently cancelled the Flash Flood Watch. The heaviest
rainfall has exited the forecast area, and the widespread flash
flooding threat has ended.

Rain chances will remain fairly high through at least Friday. Of
course, summer thunderstorms can always cause localized drainage
issues and short-duration flooding due to intense instantaneous
rainfall rates. However, synoptic forcing will be lacking, so
heavy rainfall should not be widespread or long-lasting enough to
cause larger-scale issues.

In light of recent rain, most area rivers are rising. One to
watch more closely is the Sopchoppy. That basin has picked up
about 6 inches of rain in the last 72 hours. Low river levels at
the start of this rainfall event may have spared the river from
flooding, but it will bear watching.

Elsewhere, no rivers are forecast to exceed flood stage. Ensemble
river forecasts show little, if any, chance of flooding in the
next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  87  71  87  70 /  20  60  40  60  30
Panama City   74  85  74  86  72 /  30  60  30  50  30
Dothan        70  85  70  85  70 /  10  60  30  50  20
Albany        70  88  71  86  71 /  20  50  40  50  20
Valdosta      70  88  70  85  68 /  20  70  40  60  30
Cross City    72  88  72  87  69 /  40  60  40  70  40
Apalachicola  74  85  74  85  74 /  40  60  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner