Drought in Nebraska, July 27 to 31, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...Short Term and Aviation Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Comment about early morning fog potential:
Although not expecting NEARLY the amount of truly dense fog (1/4
mile or less visibility) as we dealt with yesterday morning in
much of the CWA, this forecaster is also not necessarily buying
the "no fog" scenario offered by latest HRRR/RAP visibility progs.
It's also worth noting that the 21Z SREF at least offers low
probability for light fog toward sunrise (especially southern
zones). As a result, decided it wouldn't hurt to simply throw a
generic "patchy fog" into this morning's forecast CWA-wide. Again
though, a lot would have to go haywire for fog to become nearly as
much of an issue as Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

The initial forecast concern is the heat related headlines
before some cooler/thunderstorm chances come back to the forecast.

Weak surface high pressure over Iowa as of 2PM today with a
routine south/southeast flow from Kansas into central Nebraska.
This moisture axis is being tapped by some weak upper forcing in
southern Kansas along with a bit of low-level convergence into
central Kansas. Agitated cumulus field on radar has resulted in
isolated showers and even a thunderstorm along the I-70 and
Highway 24 corridor. Previous forecast had this well in hand and
will continue with the isolated, low end chance of precipitation
this afternoon for areas south of Highway 36 in north central
Kansas.

Previous forecast also had the upcoming heat covered with a heat
advisory posted Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday mid-evening.
There were no changes to this scenario. The upper level high
pressure settles right over southern Nebraska at 36-42 hours
and skies should be clear. Do expect temperatures take it up
a notch the next two days in this situation, but we have had
trouble maxing out our high temperature potential in recent
days/weeks, maybe influenced by smokey haze aloft. However, its
really about the heat AND humidity combined. While there is some
breeze both days, it doesn't look as "strong" as today so natural
cooling will not be plentiful.

Thursday is somewhat of an interesting day as we see the sagging
down of a cold front in the afternoon/early evening, right into
the ridge. Timing is a bit uncertain, but its seems like north
central Kansas and far southern Nebraska may be in line for
another heat advisory type of day ahead of the front. Moisture
pooling along the front and light winds ahead/near the front could
make it pretty lousy. Once we get by the heat, the front could
also be a spark for late night thunderstorms along/behind it. To
be honest, after the last 2 days during which a front dropped
anywhere from no rain to 8 inches of rain over a 10 county area,
confidence is not real high on exactly what might happen Thursday
night and beyond, at least regarding rainfall. So...the tail end
of the forecast into the weekend reflects cooler trend (80s)
behind the front and intermittent thunderstorm chances as the
upper ridge moves back southwest and the flow aloft is more
northwest again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
First off, confidence is very high in rain/storm-free conditions,
as the only sky cover to speak of should consist of a combo of
smoky haze aloft, perhaps some thin cirrus, and maybe a few
shallow VFR cumulus during the day. That leaves "sneaky fog"
potential as the only caveat to an outright VFR declaration.
Unlike Monday morning, do not expect nearly the dense fog issue to
repeat itself, but could easily see some light/patchy fog (mainly
no worse than MVFR visibility) forming especially 09-12Z. For now
have only "hinted" at this potential with a low-end VFR "6SM BR"
inclusion, but will monitor trends closely just in case.

Winds:
Winds remain a very minimal concern, as speeds look to be even a
touch lighter than they were Monday. Although there will surely be
the occasional gust to around 15KT during the afternoon, sustained
speeds the vast majority of the period should average at-or-below
10KT. Direction in general will prevail southerly, with only minor
fluctuations between south-southeasterly and south-southwesterly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
702 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
280015-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
702 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A heat advisory is in effect for all of south central Nebraska
and north central Kansas from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening. Afternoon and early evening heat index values will range
from 100 to 108 degrees both days.

Though a weak cold front will drop into the area late Thursday,
heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees may materialize over
parts of the area by afternoon, especially south of Interstate 80.
The need for additional heat related headlines will be
reevaluated in the coming days.

Intermittent chances for thunderstorms return to various portions
of the outlook area between Thursday night and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi