m. on this Friday afternoon-evening, a fairly quick-hitting system deposited anywhere from a dusting up to 4 inches of modestly-wind-blown snow across South Central Nebraska, slickening area roads for the evening commute and touching off a handful of accidents.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Mainly between 2-10 p.m. on this Friday afternoon-evening, a fairly quick-hitting system deposited anywhere from a dusting up to 4 inches of modestly-wind-blown snow across South Central Nebraska, slickening area roads for the evening commute and touching off a handful of accidents. The highest accumulations of 2-4 concentrated within the northwest half of the local area (mainly NW of a line from Beaver City-Grand Island-Genoa), highlighted by CoCoRaHS/NWS cooperative observer totals including: 4.0 east of Scotia and southeast of Ord, 3.3 west of Genoa, 3.1 west of Arcadia and 3.0 in Holdrege, Loup City and also near Sumner. In the Nebraska Tri Cities, Kearney officially led the way with 2.8. Meanwhile, within the southeast half of the local domain most places received less than 1, including only around one-half inch in the Hastings area. Although not overly-strong, north-northwest winds through most of the event averaged 15-25 MPH with gusts up to around 35 MPH, promoting at least modest blowing/drifting although temperatures averaging in the upper 20s to around 30 F mitigated this somewhat by keeping snow a little on the wetter side. Fortunately, there were no known reports of serious injury accidents, but Interstate 80 was shut down for around three hours during the late evening near Elm Creek as a series of crashes culminated in a close call for a Nebraska State Patrol trooper. The trooper, who was responding to a prior accident, parked their cruiser in the median only to have it totaled a short time later by a jack-knifed semi truck. Thankfully, the trooper was outside their car at the time and not injured.
This was a progressive system, with the heaviest snow falling for no more than 3-4 hours at any given location and the primary, southwest-northeast oriented band lifting across the northwest half of South Central NE mainly between 2:30-6:30 p.m. Meanwhile, more transient, weaker snow bands traversed the southeast half of the area mainly 5-9 p.m., with most all of the 24-county area snow-free by 10 p.m. In the mid-upper levels, the main player was a broad trough steadily progressing eastward across the Central Plains during the afternoon-evening, with the enhanced snowfall in northern/western local counties augmented by a closed circulation/frontogenetic band most evident at 700 millibars. At the surface, the gusty north-northwest winds were driven by a decent pressure gradient on the backside of a 994 millibar low that marched northeastward from central KS to northern IL during the afternoon-evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 10, 12:34 PM CST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
...Short Term and Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
Regarding Wintry Weather over the next 12 hours:
- More to come in the main afternoon discussion, but most
importantly: opted to issue a formal Winter Weather Advisory for
the majority of our Nebraska coverage area (CWA) valid 3PM-
Midnight (including for Tri Cities).
- Although snow amounts across most of the Advisory area are only
expected to top out 1-2 inches (any 3" amounts mainly far
north), the combo of gusty north-northwest and also the timing
of the main snow band centered a few hours either side of the
evening commute served as "nudgers" toward Advisory issuance.
Many counties south of the Advisory will likely see at least a
light dusting and perhaps a brief period of travel issues as
well, but could not justify an official Advisory for these
southern areas (including KS) where less than 1" of
accumulation is expected to prevail.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 428 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
The main point of this forecast is the snow today, then we also have
the warming temps and the strong wind potential on Wednesday.
Pre-dawn temperatures look to be on track overnight for lows (albeit
on the warm side for what is to come later). Satellite shows solid
high cloud cover across the region with radar showing a moderate band of
snow stretching across southern SD. A trof pushing in from the west which has spun up a sfc lee side low that will
push off the Rockies and track across central KS. As this low tracks
eastward, we can expect some wintry precip, mostly snow, to fall
across mainly the northern half of the area this afternoon. This
system has slowed down somewhat compared to previous forecasts and
the onset of precip for the northern most portions of the CWA looks
to be closer to 16Z. Soundings suggest that precip should be all
snow at the onset for northern areas, where as the southern fringes
(around the Tri-Cities) could see a brief, non accumulating mix
before changing over to snow. As we approach this afternoon, 850 mb
temps look to take a dive with Grand Island at -4 degrees at 850 at
Noon and falling...thus indicative of strong cold air advection.
Overall snow amounts are in the 1-2 inch range favoring the
northeast third of the CWA. Models have also consistently shown a
QPF appendage that dips down over the eastern quarter of the CWA
that is tied to the presence of two jet streaks aloft. This snow
band develops in the right entrance region of the northern jet
streak and is also in the left exit region of the southern jet
streak, thus enhancing lift and resulting in a little extra
snowfall. This is reflected in the approx. 1 in totals in the Grand
Island and York areas, though this could possibly be slightly higher
if a good band ends up forming there.
The majority of snowfall is expected during the 18Z to 03Z time
frame. Even though snow totals are not exceptionally high, this
could still be an impactful event due to higher winds (gusts around
30-35 mph) as well as the timing being around evening commute on a
Friday. While we are in good collaboration with our neighbors at
this time and do not have an advisory out, it is possible that
could change later today and one may be necessary.
This quick taste of winter will be rather short lived though as
temperatures warm by the middle of next week. Tomorrow starts a warm
up trend with temperatures coming back up into the 40s (near to
slightly above normal) and a transition to northwest flow aloft.
Near critical fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow
afternoon for the southwestern third of the CWA, due to modest winds
and low RH values.
Flow aloft turns zonal by Sunday with even warmer temperatures
climbing into the 50s with south and southwesterly winds at the sfc,
taking care of any lingering snow. Flow aloft then turns
southwesterly Monday along with brief shortwave ridging
through Tuesday. Monday's highs will be similar to Sunday's, again
in the 50s but slightly warmer in the southeast. The next trof aloft
comes on shore over CA on Tuesday afternoon and is crossing the
Rockies by Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week and complete turn around from today, with highs in the 60s and
low 70s, which will be approaching record territory. Should we see
enough sunshine on Wednesday, we could almost certainly break the
record high temperatures.
Along with the warmth, models are consistently pointing toward a
high wind impact day as the trof deepens. After collaboration with
neighbors, have decided to increase winds next Wednesday to reflect
this wind potential. With this next system, the EC keeps things dry
with the accompanying cold front that moves through, but the GFS is
generating QPF along and behind the cold front. There are other
important model differences as well such as the EC shows an open
wave the the GFS has a closed low aloft. The GFS is also a little
farther south in placement of the lows and is about 12 hours slower
in progression. All this to say that there is still much to be seen
and worked out between now and then. Then with the passage of the
cold front temperatures come back down into the 40s for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
General overview:
Truly a tale of two periods, with high confidence in prevailing
MVFR/IFR (perhaps brief LIFR) during much of the first half
(including a round of accumulating snow) and equally-high
confidence in a return to VFR and mostly clear skies during the
latter half of the period. Winds will also be modestly-strong
through especially the first half, but will ease up during the
latter half. Total snow accumulation at both KGRI/KEAR is
currently expected to average 1-2".
Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
High-end MVFR ceilings are already in place, and these should
lower to low-end MVFR later this afternoon-evening. Although brief
IFR cannot be ruled out, have not gone this low in TAFs. By far
the main issue is a band of at least light snow expected to sweep
through KGRI/KEAR from west-to-east during the 21-04Z time frame,
with the overall-best chance for moderate snow likely focusing
22-02Z (covered with a TEMPO group for IFR visibility). Brief LIFR
visibility certainly possible, but have not gone this low in TAFs
at this time. Once snow ends, MVFR ceiling could stick around a
few more hours, but will aim for a 04-05Z return to VFR, with even
higher confidence in VFR a few hours beyond that. Little if any
cloud cover expected late tonight into Saturday morning behind the
departing system.
Wind details:
The overall-strongest winds will occur during these first 12-15
hours, with sustained speeds commonly 15-20KT/gusts 20-30KT as
direction gradually transitions from north-northeasterly to
northwesterly. During the latter half of the period, speeds will
ease up as direction transitions to more true-westerly, but
sustained speeds of 10+KT/gusts of 15+KT will remain common.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-073>077.
KS...NONE.
&&
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...PfannkuchHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Hastings NE 1212 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 111200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 1212 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. An area of wind-blown snow will gradually overspread most of the outlook area from west-to-east this afternoon and evening, with any accumulating snow exiting eastern local counties by around midnight. Snow accumulations should range from 1 to 3 inches near and north of Highway 6 in Nebraska, to only a light dusting of one-half inch or less near and south of the Nebraska-Kansas border. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 3 PM to Midnight for most Nebraska counties along and north of Highway 6. Please refer to the Advisory statement for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. On Saturday afternoon, near-critical fire weather conditions are likely for mainly the southwestern one-third of the outlook area, due to the combination of relative humidity values falling to between 15 and 25 percent, and westerly winds gusting at least 20 MPH. On Wednesday, there is a chance of very strong winds area-wide, with gusts up to at least 45 MPH possible. The combination of these strong winds and unseasonably-warm temperatures could also promote at least near-critical fire weather conditions. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Any reports of measured snowfall would be greatly appreciated this afternoon into tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Pfannkuch
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
12 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm totals ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county. Amounts included 4.0 inches from seven miles east-southeast of Ord and 3.1 inches from two miles west of Arcadia.
Storm totals ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county. A total of 3.0 inches was reported in Loup City.
Storm totals averaged around 2 inches across most of the county, including 2.0 eight miles south of Elwood.
Storm totals ranged from 1 to 4 inches across the county. A total of 3.0 was reported three miles southeast of Ravenna along with 2.8 at Kearney Regional Airport. Although most snow had stopped falling by 9 p.m., a Nebraska State Patrol car was totaled along Interstate 80 near Elm Creek around that time when a trooper responding to a crash had their vehicle smashed into by a semi truck that jack-knifed while approaching the scene. Thankfully, the trooper was outside the vehicle and was not injured. The entire crash scene shut down I-80 for approximately three hours.
Storm totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches across the county, with the NWS coop observer in Holdrege reporting 3.0.
Storm totals averaged around 1-3 inches across most of the county, including 3.0 reported in the Sumner area.
Storm totals averaged up to 2 inches across parts of the county, including 2.2 six miles north-northwest of Oxford and 2.0 in Edison and Wilsonville.
Storm totals ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county. Amounts included 4.0 inches from four miles east of Scotia and 3.5 inches from eight miles north-northeast of Scotia.
Storm totals ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county. A total of 3.3 inches was reported three miles west-southwest of Genoa.
Storm totals ranged from 2 to 4 inches across the county, with the NWS coop observer in St. Paul reporting 2.5.
Storm totals were estimated to have ranged from 2 to 4 inches across mainly northwestern portions of the county, based on surrounding observations.
Storm totals ranged as high as 2 to 3 inches within mainly the northwest half of the county, including 2.2 at Central Nebraska Regional Airport (GRI).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 994898, 994905, 994917, 994918, 994919, 999235, 999236, 994899, 994902, 994906, 994907, 994909.