Wildfire in Montana, December 1 to 4, 2021

Name: Wildfire in Montana, December 1 to 4, 2021
Start: 2021-12-01T00:00
End: 2021-12-04T12:00
Location: Montana

December 1 to 4, 2021 · NWS TFX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

Strong winds continued to howl across the plains as December began, bringing widespread impacts to the region. These winds combined with an ongoing drought and resulting very dry fine fuels to create conditions ripe for the rapid spread and growth of fires that started. By 6am, crews were working at least three fires across North-Central Montana, one just south of Great Falls, one near Denton, and one near Browning. See episode titled High Winds to Start December for more information on the winds.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 10:15 PM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 10:15 PM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1015 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021

...Aviation Section Update...

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong winds are expected through tonight along the Rocky
Mountain Front, with winds expanding further east over portions of
the plains through the day on Wednesday. Record high temperatures
are likely on Wednesday, with most locations rising into the 60s
to potentially low 70s.

&&

.UPDATE...

Strong and gusty winds are currently spreading out across the plains
of central and north central Montana this evening. So far, Great
Falls Airport has hit high wind criteria during the last half hour
and Cut Bank has remained above criteria for much of the evening.
Main update for this evening was to lower overnight minimum
temperatures several degrees since several locations have already
dropped below the afternoon forecast values. However, as the winds
continue to increase overnight, am expecting that temperatures
will reverse their current trend and begin to increase. I have
also made some minor tweaks to nudge forecast winds and wind gusts
a bit higher for tonight through Thursday. I am somewhat concerned
that this high wind event (at least along the Rocky Mountain
Front) could continue beyond the current ending time for the High
Wind Warning. I have not made any changes to the current
highlights but will pass my concerns along to the overnight
forecast shift so they can examine this possibility in more
detail as forecast models update. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
1015 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021 (01/06Z TAF period)

Strong west to southwest winds continue to prevail across the region
and will gradually increase throughout tonight into the morning.
Surface winds at KCTB may exceed operational limits, where gusts in
excess of 75kts can be expected. Many terminals, including KGTF,
KCTB, KHVR, and KLWT may experience blowing dust as a result of
these winds. Additionally, widespread low-level wind shear is
possible, primarily near KBZN and KLWT. Strong to severe mountain
wave turbulence should be expected through this TAF period.
Precipitation will be limited to areas of higher elevation, combined
with low- to mid-level cloudiness along the Rocky Mountain Front
will likely cause mountain obscuration. - Pierce

KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume next
spring.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will exist through Wednesday
night due to strong southwest to west downsloping winds, which
will lead to low afternoon relative humidity values in the 25-35%
range and poor moisture recovery during the overnight hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures are expected on Wednesday across much of
the region. Some record high temperatures could break the previous
record high temperatures by nearly 10 degrees. Additionally, some
locations could even approach the all time record high temperatures
for December. For instance, Great Falls all time record high for
December is 69 degrees, set on December 5, 1939. The all time high
for Helena for December is 64 degrees, set on December 4, 1918 and
December 27, 1980. Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 425 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021/

Rest of today through Thursday...main change with the afternoon
forecast package has been to upgrade the High Wind Watch for Toole
and Fergus Counties, along with adjusting the start time up for
these two areas to 07z Wednesday to account for an earlier onset of
the high winds. For Chouteau, Liberty, Hill, and Blaine Counties the
High Wind Watch has been left as is for now as forecast confidence
remains below what is need to upgrade the watch, but still high
enough to retain the watch as probabilistic guidance suggests a high
enough chance for high winds to materialize. Will give the evening
and midnight shifts a few more model runs to look at these areas
until confidence is high enough to either cancel or upgrade the
remaining High Wind Watch. Otherwise the overall forecast for the
region remains unchanged; with a high end wind event still expected
to impact the Rocky Mountain Front and Glacier County, and a more
typical (i.e. wind gusts of 60-70 mph) wind event for the remaining
High Wind warned areas. Probabilistic data suggest an 80%+ chance of
winds exceeding 64kts across most if not all of the Rocky Mountain
Front and Glacier County at times from now through Wednesday
evening, with deterministic model guidance suggesting peak surface
wind gusts potentially nearing 80-90kts. Of bigger concern for the
Rocky Mountain Front and Glacier County Areas will be how long the
strongest winds persist, with sustained speeds in excess of 34kts
being possible for up to 12-24hrs at some locations in addition to
the gusts. Another notable forecast story throughout the period will
be the potential for new record highs on Wednesday, with old records
potentially being blown away by up to 5-10 degrees. - Moldan

Friday through next Tuesday...In the wake of the weak high pressure,
predominately zonal flow expected beginning Friday, in accordance to
model ensembles. Winds are expected to drastically decline from the
previous days, resulting in a decrease of daily high temperatures,
which are likely to be closer to seasonal averages. There is higher
confidence that the snow probability for this weekend to be
diminished as latest models have come in warmer and drier than
previous runs. However, model guidance shows a shortwave passing
through the region early next week, which betters the chance of
precipitation. With temperatures still relatively warm, the
aforementioned precipitation will likely restrict snow to higher
elevations, whereas the plains would see light rain. Due to the
nature this event is several days out, confidence continues to be
low. - Pierce

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  66  50  59 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  44  62  43  52 /   0  10   0  10
HLN  43  67  47  60 /  20  10   0   0
BZN  39  64  40  58 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  23  41  27  43 /  20  20  10   0
DLN  36  58  36  55 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  40  67  40  56 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  40  66  46  59 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MST Thursday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday Cascade...Judith
Basin.

High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST Wednesday through Wednesday
evening Blaine...Chouteau...Hill...Liberty.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 9 PM MST Wednesday
Fergus...Toole.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 30, 10:59 PM MST, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1059 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NE CRAIG              47.14N 111.86W
11/30/2021  M59 MPH          CASCADE            MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            59 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEARBORN MDT SENSOR.

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Nov 30, 11:03 PM MST, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1103 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ESE FORT BENTON       47.79N 110.48W
11/30/2021  M55 MPH          CHOUTEAU           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTM02 10.2 S LOMA (MT-MESO).

1023 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE GEYSER            47.25N 110.48W
11/30/2021  M61 MPH          JUDITH BASIN       MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTGYS GEYSER (MT DOT).

1030 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM              47.98N 112.61W
11/30/2021  M75 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DELMT DELLWO (MCSCN).

1038 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/30/2021  M68 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBRN TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE
            (MT DOT).

1040 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA                47.95N 110.50W
11/30/2021  M55 MPH          CHOUTEAU           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTLOM LOMA (MT DOT).

&&

Local storm report, Nov 30, 11:29 PM MST, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1129 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA                47.95N 110.50W
11/30/2021  M58 MPH          CHOUTEAU           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTLOM LOMA (MT DOT).

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Nov 30, 11:30 PM MST, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA                47.95N 110.50W
11/30/2021  M59 MPH          CHOUTEAU           MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTLOM LOMA (MT DOT).

&&

BRUSDA

Local storm report, Nov 30, 11:33 PM MST, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1133 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE AUGUSTA           47.56N 112.34W
11/30/2021  M55 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MCBMT MCBRATNY - MCSCN.

&&

Local storm report, Nov 30, 11:34 PM MST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1134 PM MST TUE NOV 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
11/30/2021  M80 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8 DEEP CREEK RAWS.

&&

BRUSDA

Event by event

3 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Fergus

When: December 1, 12:00 AM MST to December 4, 12:00 PM MST
Where: Fergus forecast zone
Reported by: Fire Department/Rescue

The West Wind Fire was first reported on Tuesday, November 30, 2021 as a start in Judith Basin County that quickly spread into Fergus County. High winds with gusts over 60 mph pushed the fire into the town of Denton, MT where multiple structures were threatened. 25 primary structures, 18 secondary structures and 6 commercial structures are destroyed, along with 100,000 bushels of recently harvested grain that burned in two grain elevators. The fire was caused by a powerline.

Wildfire, Cascade

When: December 1, 2:20 AM MST to December 2, 12:00 AM MST
Where: Cascade forecast zone
Reported by: Fire Department/Rescue

A wildfire began on the south side of Great Falls early in the morning of December 1st as the result of arson. This fire quickly grew with winds gusting to 50-60 mph, and spread into the Gibson Flats neighborhood, where it caused up to 65 people to be evacuated from their homes, and would ultimately burn 11 homes, 7 garages, and 11 outbuildings as the fire burned 112 acres before it was able to be contained. To date, this is Great Fall's most destructive wild fire.

Wildfire, North Rocky Mountain Front

When: December 1, 4:22 AM MST to 11:00 AM MST
Where: North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
Reported by: Fire Department/Rescue

A grass fire near Blackfoot, Montana was reported at 4:22 am on December 1st, fueled by dry grasses and wind gusts over 90 mph. Despite these strong winds and dry grasses, fire officials were able to control the fire by 11am, allowing residents to return to their homes. No homes were lost to the blaze, but a barn was damaged as the fire burned 780 acres.

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Montana in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, December 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988183, 988185, 988187.