A line of severe thunderstorms produced damaging winds across portions of the Missouri Ozarks.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A line of severe thunderstorms produced damaging winds across portions of the Missouri Ozarks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 20, 5:30 AM CST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Springfield MO 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Key Messages: 1. Very warm today. Highs around 90. 2. Showers and thunderstorms tonight. Some could be strong. 3. Much, much cooler Tuesday through Thursday! .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Low level stratus was moving through south central Missouri early this morning as upper level energy drifts just east of the area. A few showers were occuring in this area and will likely continue through sunrise. Another area of showers were occuring along the eastern edge of a capping inversion across central Kansas into Oklahoma. The last three hours of KSGF VAD wind profile data shows an increase in winds from the surface to about 1kft (10-30kts). This is allowing for temperatures to remain rather mild, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A large upper level trough across the northern rockies will continue moving east today. A 1000mb surface low across northern Kansas will allow for increasing southerly winds through the day. RAP and NAM soundings for southeast Kansas and western Missouri show possible momentum transfers of 20-30mph during the afternoon. 850mb temperatures will increase through the day, reaching 20-22C, especially from Springfield and to the west. This warm low level airmass, combined with abnormally dry soil and increasing south winds should allow for high temps to shoot up into the 90-93 deg range. This is very close to the 50th-75th percentile of the National Blend of Models. Record highs this time of year are much higher, therefore we are not expecting to break those today. Once we reach the early to mid evening (5pm-8pm) timeframe, a strong cold front will approach our far northwestern counties. Sufficient lift due to the incoming trough will allow for the development of showers and storms this evening as the front moves into the area. Forecast soundings around 6-7pm across southeast Kansas into western Missouri do show about 25kts of effective bulk shear and 1500-2000j/kg of ML CAPE. These soundings also show some dry air in the low levels along with steep low level lapse rates which would be favor a few damaging wind gusts. The hail potential remains low given weak shear and storm mode. An inspection of HREF data shows that the highest probability of strong updrafts (potential severe storms) would favor areas west of Highway 65. These probabilities are also quite low, especially compared to locations north of the area where better shear will occur. The NBM probabilities for thunder are also highest in west central Missouri, and dropping as you go east/southeast of there. Wind shear increases behind the front with this system, therefore storms may be disorganized at times with a few clusters and perhaps an eventual line of storms. In general, the cold front and storms will be along the Interstate 44 corridor in the 9pm-1am timeframe. The later into the night we will likely see a decrease in storm intensity as instability drops. By sunrise Tuesday, the front and storms will likely be near or just past the south central Missouri region. Temperatures will be dropping fast behind the front with upper 50s to lower 60s likely by sunrise Tuesday. North winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are also likely. HREF ensemble probability matched mean rainfall amounts with this system look to be in the quarter to half inch range, with locally higher amounts close to three quarters of an inch. Probabilities for one inch or more remain very low. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 While the cold front will be moving into Arkansas during the day Tuesday, the upper level trough will slowly begin to move overhead and provide lift for some rain showers, especially in the morning and mid day hours. Therefore with cloud cover, showers, and cold air advection, temperatures will struggle to climb through the 60s! Locations along the Ozark Plateau may only see highs in the upper 60s, which will likely be at least 20 degrees cooler than Monday. These temperatures are around the 25th percentile of guidance and look plausible given the setup. Any precip will have moved south of the region by Tuesday night. The airmass will really begin to dry out with dewpoints dropping into the 40s Tuesday night as the cold front makes it way to the Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure will move over the area Wednesday and confidence is very high that we will see low temperatures in the 40s both Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with Thursday morning being the coldest as the center of the high will be directly overhead. Can not rule out some lows at 40 degrees across valleys and sheltered locations Thursday morning. Looking at NBM probabilities, the chance of temperatures dropping into the 30s are currently less than 5 percent. Therefore we should be well out of range for any frost. Inspection of WPC cluster analysis and model ensembles show that the region will likely remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week and perhaps into the first part of the weekend. This will lead to dry conditions and and slowly moderating temperatures. The NBM high temperature spreads are not very high from the weekend into early next week with readings in the middle to upper 80s returning. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the day. Southerly winds will increase during the day with gusts over 20kts likely, especially at JLN. A cold front will approach late tonight which will switch winds to the northwest, bring a chance of showers and storms, and then eventually lower MVFR ceilings. For now have gone with prob30 for thunder potential. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210915- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk. Elevated lightning risk. Limited excessive heat risk. Limited non thunderstorm wind risk. DISCUSSION... Heat index values this afternoon may reach the middle to upper 90s across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Gusty south winds up to 30 mph are possible this afternoon across southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across southeast Kansas and western Missouri this evening, mainly after 6pm. These storms will then spread through the remainder of the area during the evening and overnight hours. A few storms may produce damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and hail up to the size of nickels. Widespread severe weather or flash flooding is not expected. Cloud to ground lightning will be possible however. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A few thunderstorms will be possible across south central Missouri Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Due to the low potential for severe storms, spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Burchfield
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 114 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:38 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree was blown over. Several large limbs fell onto a house.
A large tree and limbs were reported down at Eland Road and Dutch Elm Road.
A large tree was reported down on a home causing minor damage.
Several large tree limbs were reported down on Highway 86.
A large limb fell on a home causing minor roof damage.
Several large limbs were reported down on State Highway CC and Norway Road.
Multiple trees along a 40 acre field were blown down on a fence. and minor roof damage occurred to a home.
A large tree snapped due to severe winds near Sycamore Road and 9th Street.
Several trees and large limbs were reported down.
Nickle sized hail was reported.
A large limb fell on a vehicle causing minor damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 980697, 980698, 980699, 980700, 980701, 980702, 980704, 980706, 980707, 980696, 980708.