The severe weather episode began as a series of supercells and transitioned to a squall line. A supercell thunderstorm produced a strong long-track tornado across southeast Missouri that ended in southwest Perry County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The severe weather episode began as a series of supercells and transitioned to a squall line. A supercell thunderstorm produced a strong long-track tornado across southeast Missouri that ended in southwest Perry County. A short EF-1 tornado associated with a squall line struck southern Perry County shortly thereafter. A longer track EF-1 tornado also impacted eastern Wayne County into southern Bollinger County. The storms preceded a strong cold front that trailed south-southwest from a low pressure center over west central Illinois. Dew points ahead of the front were in the lower to mid 60's. Instability was strong enough to support severe storms, given that wind shear was quite strong. Mixed-layer capes were around 1000 j/kg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 24, 5:28 PM CST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 The main challenge for the short term is the timing of thunderstorms into the area and the severity of this activity and to what areal extent. A upper level shortwave trough over eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas will continue moving east and eventually a closed low will develop as the system moves into Illinois by later tonight. A surface low pressure system currently over northwestern Missouri will move eastward this evening into tonight. Despite decent cloud cover earlier today, we have managed to rise well into the 70s and even into the low 80s in some locations, with dew points into the mid to upper 60s in the warm sector, with the warm front to our north. Convection should develop to our west by late this afternoon and likely enter our CWA (parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois) by early this evening, around 00Z or shortly thereafter. Between 00Z and 06Z, the convection will be impacting southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois and possibly extreme western KY as the cold front moves east into these areas. This time frame and region poses the highest threat for any severe weather, including damaging winds and tornadoes. See SPC Day 1 outlook for more detailed information. By 06Z, the convection will likely be entering the rest of west Kentucky and into southwest Indiana, spreading eastward during the 06Z to 09Z time frame, while rapid clearing of the storms is expected in our western sections. While severe weather probabilities are not zero further east across the area, pertinent parameters certainly decrease with time, especially across eastern sections of our CWA. Any lingering showers or storms across the eastern parts of the region by around sunrise, should rapidly press east. Clouds will likely remain in place across the northeastern half of the area on Monday in conjunction with the passing of the upper level low to our north. These clouds will hang tough for most of the day but tend to move out late in the afternoon or early in the evening. Could even see a little bit of drizzle under the stratus deck up in the I-64 corridor in IL/IN. Strong west northwest winds will commence behind the front on Monday. Cold air advection will cause 850mb temperatures to drop into the single digits. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 The start of the long term forecast period will be dry, with the storm system having moved towards New England. Northerly flow behind the system will bring much cooler temperatures, with lows in the mid- 40s Monday night. By Tuesday, the synoptic pattern will have an upper-level trough on the east coast, a ridge in the Plains that will build into the Mississippi Valley through Tuesday night, and a deep trough in the mountain west. Models agree a bit more on developing an upper-level low near Oklahoma on Wednesday though still differ in strength and timing. Ahead of this system, as the ridge moves over the Quad State, a more southeasterly wind direction will lead to a warming trend through Wednesday. The GFS continues to be the faster progressing ensemble, while the Canadian remains the slowest of the three. Cluster analysis favors a deeper low pressure system, tracking near the Quad State with a relatively slow progression eastward. The alternative option is weaker, even slower, and further south, with this option showing up a bit more often in the Canadian ensemble. Siding with the more likely track, the heavier rain is likely to be between Wednesday evening and Thursday, with the earlier timing aligned with the GFS and the latter for the ECMWF. Convective potential remains weak so thunder is limited to Wednesday night ahead of the low. Storm total rainfall of around an inch is anticipated, with flooding potential very low. Afterwards, wrap-around showers will be present Friday for the entire Quad State and possibly Saturday for eastern portions. Once the system moves far enough eastward to end the wrap-around showers, dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer through Wednesday ahead of the next system, with highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 60s. When winds shift to northwesterly with wrap-around moisture, highs late in the week will be down to the upper 50s to near 60. Lows in the lower half of the 40s Monday night will trend warmer to the lower 50s Wednesday night, then drop back to the 40s for late week and the weekend. && .AVIATION... Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Initial convective activity between KCGI and KPAH should dissipate within the 1-2 hour time frame after the beginning of the 00z Monday time frame. The main adjustment in the TAF forecast is the addition of GR (hail) for the KCGI TAF, as well as a mention of Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) ahead of the convective line for the WFO PAH TAF's ahead of the line. At this point in time, kept the background/mean winds in place for the forecast, but may need to update within a TEMPO group for winds in excess of 45 to 55 knots. Will adjust on a case by case bases. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && AVIATION...Smith
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 440 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-251000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 440 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are expected tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Strong to severe storms are possible across the entire region this evening and overnight, with the best potential for severe storms in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far west Kentucky. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and large hail are all possible. Localized heavy rainfall could cause flooding of flood prone areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this evening and overnight across the entire area. RST
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:06 UTC.
4 tornado, 3 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter just south of St. Mary reported a lot of tree damage on the road.
This long-track tornado crossed into southwest Perry County from Madison County. Along the Madison/Perry county line, the width was about half of a mile wide, with numerous trees snapped and uprooted. The tornado then moved nearly parallel to County Road 738. Here several houses and a hunting lodge sustained minor damage, mainly to roofs and posts of a porch. One barn and a small shed were destroyed, along with numerous uprooted and snapped trees. The tornado continued on to produce tree damage on Highway 730, where it was only a few hundred yards wide and dissipated shortly thereafter. Peak winds in the Perry County portion of the path were near 112 mph, putting it barely into the EF-2 category. However, the tornado peaked at EF-3 intensity earlier in its life cycle.
This short-lived tornado occurred in sparsely populated country near the tiny community of Yount. The tornado crossed Highway J three times, snapping and uprooting trees along its path.
A trained spotter reported 50 to 60 mph winds.
This tornado touched down in the heavily forested county of Wayne, just a few miles north of the community of Shook. Numerous trees were uprooted and snapped. The tornado passed mainly through wooded country during the Wayne County portion of its path. The tornado then crossed into Bollinger County.
The tornado crossed into Bollinger County from Wayne County. The tornado directly affected the community of Zalma, where the school gymnasium roof was damaged. Air conditioning units were blown off the school roof. The top half of a two-story barn was destroyed. There was roof damage to a chicken house. Otherwise, the majority of the path was through densely wooded farm country, where numerous trees were uprooted or snapped. Peak winds were estimated near 105 mph.
There was water and debris over Highway B and County Road 324. Hog Creek was out of its banks along Highway B.
The roof of an old, vacant, dilapidated apartment building was damaged. Part of the roof was ripped off the one-story building, landing on the wall of a neighboring residence. Some branches were down elsewhere in the city.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Missouri, 2021Warnings in Missouri, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 984601, 984610, 984609, 984597, 984598, 984604, 984605, 984685, 984599.