Thunderstorms occurred ahead of a cold front that extended south-southwest across western Missouri from a low pressure center over Wisconsin. Minor flooding was reported from these storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Thunderstorms occurred ahead of a cold front that extended south-southwest across western Missouri from a low pressure center over Wisconsin. Minor flooding was reported from these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 5:33 AM CST, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 633 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2021 Updated aviation section for 12z TAFs && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH Sunday Night) ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2021 Complex weather change has begun Upper level low is lifting out of the 4 corners area and is now over southeast Colorado according to satellite. Abundant moisture continues to stream northward ahead of the main system. Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. As the upper low lifts out is it still expected to open up as it moves toward us. At the surface, a low center should start developing over the MN area over the next few hours with a cold front stretching southwest into Oklahoma. As the surface low moves into Michigan late Sunday, the cold front should push through our area. Two main concerns. The first is heavy rainfall potential today and tonight. WPC has put most of the western half of the area in a slight risk. Crest soil moistures are at 60% saturation over parts of southeast Missouri already as some locations have had over 3 inches according to radar. Convection moving through the area this morning will aid in priming the soils for the potential for some isolated flooding. PWs are forecast to be around 2 inches today which is well above the 99th percentile for this time of year. Freezing level is high, so warm rain processes dominate. CAPE values are not too high so the concern is more training of storms rather than rainfall rates themselves. Current QPF suggests over 2 inches possible from Stoddard/Mississippi counties in southeast Missouri to near Marion Illinois. As for the timing of showers and thunderstorms today/tonight, used a combination of the HRRR, which looks best at the moment, and HREF/NAM Nest. The current round spreads northeast and takes til mid afternoon to weaken with still a few showers/storms around. The next round begins this evening and moves east northeast across the CWA overnight. The next concern is a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow over a few counties in west Kentucky. The front itself will be slow to move across the CWA as the upper levels transition from an open wave into the start of an upper level low. If the instability can develop over that area during the afternoon, shear values are forecast to be strong enough for an isolated severe storm or two with damaging winds the main threat. .LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Friday) ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2021 The upcoming workweek will be dominated by a nearly stationary closed low over the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. This system will bring scattered showers each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. The system should finally lift northeast by the end of the week, bringing drier and somewhat warmer weather for Friday. Looking at the finer details, a 500 mb shortwave will pivot southeast from the northern Plains, reinforcing the large-scale trough over the Mississippi Valley. From Monday evening through at least Wednesday night, the ensemble means of the gfs and ecmwf depict a cutoff 500 mb low centered over the west Tennessee/Missouri bootheel area. Underneath this cutoff 500 mb low, expect scattered showers each day. The activity will likely be diurnally enhanced. Ensemble mean capes during the afternoon hours reach around 500 j/kg, suggesting some thunder is possible. A weak surface low or inverted trough over the Tennessee Valley may focus coverage more over western Kentucky, but overall coverage should still be scattered versus widespread. A kicker shortwave will come onshore from the Pacific by Friday. Ensemble means vary somewhat regarding the progression of things, but there is reasonable agreement that Friday will be mainly dry as the 500 mb low opens into a trough and lifts northeast of our region. Daily temps will be rather pleasant through the week, with daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING) ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 2 2021 Scattered convection along the Ohio River with a few lightning flashes. Showers trail back to south of Memphis with scattered showers and a few storms over MO/AR. Expect showers/isolated storms to increase over AR and move into our area on and off through the period. Expect VFR cigs to gradually come down to MVFR with some IFR tonight at some locations. Visibilities down to 2 miles in the heavier showers otherwise generally 5-6 miles in the light rain. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...PS SHORT TERM...PS LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...PS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-031000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 2 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall, which may result in some isolated flooding, and lightning will be the main hazards. An isolated strong storm is possible too .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday There is a marginal risk of severe storms Sunday in west Kentucky during the afternoon, southeast of a line from Murray to Madisonville. Isolated damaging winds and lightning will be the main hazards. Non severe thunderstorms are possible across the rest of the area as well on Sunday with locally heavy rain and lighting as the main hazards. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms each day from Monday through Thursday, mainly during the afternoon hours. The primary hazards will be dangerous lightning and brief heavy downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed over west Kentucky tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, any reports of heavy rainfall or localized flooding would be appreciated. PS/MY
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor street flooding was reported on the north side of Poplar Bluff.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 984688.