Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, June 19 to 20, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021

Vigorous cumulus field ranging across most of the forecast area
likely in response to surface temperatures reaching convective
temperature. With a surface boundary in the area, there is some
slightly higher convergence, but according to SPC Mesoanalysis there
does not appear to be very much, which will limit the ability for
free convection. That being said with the uncapped atmosphere it'll
be possible for at least some isolated to scattered convection
within that enhanced cumulus field that resides generally along and
north of I-70. Pretty extreme instability is in place, with ML CAPE
around 3500-4000 J/kg resides along that boundary, along with some
minimally useful effective deep layer shear around 30 kts could
yield some strong updrafts. Should anything become well
established the parameters will be in place for some storm
organization. While any established storm could become a
supercell, the high T/TD spread in the 20-25 degree range will
keep storm bases rather high, and should enhance downdraft
potential above any tornado potential. Given the extreme CAPE and
good mid level lapse rates, large hail will also be possible with
any storm that can get going. Later tonight, a complex of storms
that is currently over the central/northern High Plains will race
eastward and push E/NE into far northern/northwestern Missouri
through the overnight hours. With the track of the mid level low
glancing the area, expect the highest impact from this complex
across areas south of I-80, perhaps into the far northern reaches
of Missouri.

With most of the forecast area remaining untouched from
Saturday/Saturday night convection expect most of the area to remain
warm and muggy and well primed for the cold frontal passage Sunday
evening through Sunday night. Expect the surface cold front to
impinge into the northwestern corner of Missouri late Sunday
afternoon, and continue to press E/SE through the evening. Hi-Res
models indicate scattered to widespread convection around sunset on
Sunday evening near the I-35 corridor. Areas east of the initiation
zone would likely see at least some rain, if not a chance for some
strong to severe storms, with gusty winds and hail being the primary
threat. Storms move out of the area Sunday night, making for a
mostly dry Monday, with some lingering showery activity. Expect a
wholesale change in conditions for Monday and Tuesday as a drier and
cooler air mass associated with an establishing surface ridge takes
over the area.

Warm and moist air makes its way back into the area by midweek,
marking a return of more traditional summer weather with muggy days
and passing chances of thunderstorms with some active mid level
flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021

Overall, VFR conditions are expected to continue, with mid-level
broken ceilings persisting through the evening. There remains an
outside chance of showers and thunderstorms impacting sites,
most likely north of the Missouri River around 08 to 09Z, but
confidence in coverage remains low, so left mention out the TAFs
at this time. Winds will generally remain out of the south and
southwest, increasing Sunday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-202045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
333 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Temperatures in the 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to
 near 100 can be expected this afternoon.

 Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
 forecast are this evening and into the overnight hours. Damaging
 winds and large hail will be the primary hazards.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Temperatures in the 90s will continue Sunday with heat indices in
 the upper 90s to lower 100s. Strong to severe storms will also be
 possible as a front moves through the area during the late
 afternoon and evening hours.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
755 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             2 NNE MOBERLY           39.45N 92.41W
06/19/2021  E0.50 INCH       RANDOLPH           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&