A small cluster of strong thunderstorms moved slowly southeast, dumping very heavy rain. The storms occurred ahead of a cold front that extended from central Missouri into southern Illinois.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A small cluster of strong thunderstorms moved slowly southeast, dumping very heavy rain. The storms occurred ahead of a cold front that extended from central Missouri into southern Illinois. A series of 500 mb shortwaves rotated through a broad trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 4:53 PM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 553 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Relatively quiet conditions are occurring this afternoon in the wake of a 500 mb trough that brought active convection this time yesterday. There is still a weak surface boundary draped across the lower Ohio Valley into se Missouri. Isolated showers have developed in the vicinity of the front this afternoon. Isolated thunder is still likely before nightfall, but shear and instability remain weak. As for tonight and Sunday, the models have trended a little wetter. There is a 500 mb trough oriented from west to east across the Midwest, which will drop south toward the lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. The surface boundary will drift south to the Tennessee/Kentucky border on Sunday. The dynamics associated with the upper trough may be enough for showers and isolated thunder during the late night and early morning hours, mainly west of the Mississippi River. This is indicated by the 12z href mean qpf. The chance of showers and storms will increase a little on Sunday with diurnal heating as the upper trough approaches. The chances still look mainly south of Interstate 64, closer to the surface boundary. Model forecast wind fields are very weak, and capes will generally be under 1500. While there may be higher precip coverage than today, not a great deal of organization is expected. Temp guidance has cooled a bit, probably due to higher cloud and precip coverage. Highs will be in the lower 80s in areas of persistent cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 The medium range modeling, as well as the blend, is finally coming together on a nice, drier forecast working in for early next week. While there is some deterministic and run to run model variance in lingering a nearby boundary to our south, amidst embedded perturbations aloft from upper level northwesterlies, by and large these pops are isolated and confined to our southern most tier counties. They perhaps linger only Sunday night into Monday, and then, the surface high that settles across the Middle to Upper Mississippi River Valley expands its grip more fully upon our airmass, effectively shutting off audible pops through the middle of the week. It should work to draw our dew points down with time, into a more comfortable mid 60s range for Tuesday-Wednesday. This will make for seasonally pleasant conditions with daytime highs (even with abundant sunshine) in the upper half of the 80s. We do not foresee a return to 90s until Days 6-7, when the blocking high pressure ridge becomes a more predominant influence for us. This is punctuated by the Cluster Analysis, with all 5 clusters largely holding off til then on their 90F introductions. As such, we'll continue previous shift trends/collaborative efforts to tweak temps down 1-2F from the NBM in the Mon-Wed time frame. Finally, along with the week ending return of heat will come some slightly higher dew point/humidities, which of course means at least a small diurnal pop reappears in the forecast as well. && .AVIATION... Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Best chance of storms through Sunday will be south of a KPCD-KOWB line. Some activity is possible tonight, with an increase in coverage anticipated tomorrow by midday into the afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions, through MVFR cigs could develop late tonight into tomorrow morning. Will monitor for fog. At this time, not including it just yet. Winds will be light. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-181930- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 220 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight south of a line from the Marion...Carbondale area to Owensboro. Brief heavy downpours and lightning are the primary hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday, again south of a line from the Marion and Carbondale area to Owensboro. Brief downpours and lightning will be the main hazards. A slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast with the return of heat and humidity Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. MY
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of streams and creeks occurred. A trained spotter measured 3.2 inches of rain in 90 minutes at the junction of U.S. Highway 61 and Y Highway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 968088.