A weak disturbance ahead of the main trough brought light snow to northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel during the early morning hours of Wednesday, February 17th. Meanwhile, another potent mid-level trough approached the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A weak disturbance ahead of the main trough brought light snow to northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel during the early morning hours of Wednesday, February 17th. Meanwhile, another potent mid-level trough approached the Lower Mississippi Valley. Precipitation blossomed across the ARKLATEX during the morning hours as the system intensified. This shield of precipitation spread into the Mid-South. From the late afternoon into the early evening hours very heavy snow bands set up across the Memphis metro and northwest Mississippi. Snowfall rates reached at least 1.5 inches an hour across some areas. The heaviest precipitation lifted east-northeast into Middle Tennessee later that evening. Some snow lingered into Thursday though additional impacts were limited. New snowfall amounts ranged from 4 to 6 inches across east-central Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and southwest Tennessee including the Memphis metro with lesser amounts to the north. One to three inches of snow and sleet fell across northeast Mississippi.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 11:51 PM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1151 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021
.UPDATE...
See the 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 957 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/
UPDATE...
A vigorous shortwave trough is digging across Southern Plains
this evening. Strong southwest flow downstream of this wave is
providing a nice fetch of mid/high clouds across the region and
this should help temperatures remain steady or even slightly warm
overnight as winds become more easterly. Strong vertical motion
can be inferred ahead of this trough which will overspread the
Mid-South tonight into Wednesday, assisting in large scale ascent.
QG forcing fields are quite impressive with this system tonight
through Thursday. Finally, the right entrance region to an
intensifying upper-level jet will provide additional large scale
ascent.
On the mesoscale, we do see an area of frontogentic forcing
developing on Wednesday, intensifying through the evening hours.
This is in response to warm advection above the stubborn arctic
dome. This frontogenesis is located within an area of negative
equivalent potential vorticity, which implies the presence of
convective symmetric instability. This suggests the potential for
the development of mesoscale snow bands leading to one or more
axes of heavier snow. Exactly where these bands set up is still
uncertain.
Recent guidance is also trending toward less sleet/freezing rain
potential in Memphis and more in the way of snow. That said, only
a degree or two warmer in the layer around 850 mb could yield
more sleet and really eat into snow totals like the previous
event. Farther north and west, snow looks to be the best bet with
accumulations exceeding near or above 6 inches. The southeast
corner of the CWA is where the most uncertainty exists given the
stronger warm nose and marginally freezing surface temperatures.
My gut says temps will struggle to climb above freezing even in
Monroe County, but that depends on the onset and intensity of the
precipitation. At this time, no big changes were made to the snow
or ice accumulation forecast but it's possible ice totals may need
to be increased in northeast MS.
Regardless, impacts are expected to be significant, especially
given the base of sleet and snow that already exists on the ground
across nearly all of the Mid-South. Travel will be extremely
difficult and power outages are likely.
MJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/
DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies are prevalent across the Mid-
South late this afternoon while the next significant winter
weather system to affect the Mid-South over New Mexico and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. As of 4 PM CST, temperatures across the
Mid-South are in the teens at many locations. This next winter
storm remains the primary focus in this afternoon's forecast
issuance.
Short term models continue to indicate a mid-level trough moving
from the New Mexico/Texas Panhandle tonight and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Latest short term model trends
including the Convective Allowing Model Solutions (CAMs) indicate
precipitation will begin later tonight across portions of
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel then spreading into
East Arkansas, Southwest Tennessee, and Northwest Mississippi
around daybreak, then spread across the remainder of West
Tennessee and Northeast Mississippi throughout the day. The
precipitation overnight into Wednesday morning will begin as snow
but will begin to mix with sleet and freezing rain as the
atmosphere begins to warm Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Areas to the north of I-40 are expected to see mainly snow, while
over North Mississippi, mostly sleet and freezing rain are
expected. Across areas along the I-40 corridor mostly snow and
sleet will occur with the potential for some light freezing rain
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Snow/Sleet accumulations will be
between 4-7 inches along and north of I-40 with lesser
accumulations to the south over North Mississippi with the
sleet/freezing rain being the predominant precipitation type.
These accumulations combined with the winter precipitation on
many roads will exacerbate driving conditions especially Wednesday
into Thursday. The remaining Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning across remainder of the area except for
Monroe County Mississippi where any sleet/ice accumulations are
anticipated to remain below warning criteria. This will continue
to be monitored into the event.
A period of precipitation free weather will return Thursday night
into the first half of the weekend. Temperatures may potentially
moderate into the 40s and 50s this weekend to help melt some of
the wintry precipitation. Long term models indicate another upper
level trough will move through the region Sunday afternoon into
Monday. There may be a potential for some freezing rain on the
back edge of the trough as it departs the Lower Mississippi Valley
next Monday and confidence isn't particularly high but will be
monitored in subsequent forecasts.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/
VFR conds to persist through much of the overnight period. A
brief MVFR deck will continue over TUP for the next hour or so
before it clears out. An area of snow will approach JBR and MEM
near sunrise, with prevailing snow by the morning hours. SN will
move into MKL around 17Z with TUP a couple of hours later.
Expect MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs to persist with -SN through the
end of the period at all sites. P-types at TUP still have the
highest amount of uncertainty with -FZRA, PL, and -SN all possible.
Winds will remain northeast through the period 5-8 kts.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
Poinsett-St. Francis.
MO...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for Dunklin-
Pemiscot.
MS...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for Alcorn-Benton
MS-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tunica-Yalobusha.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
for Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lee MS-Pontotoc-Prentiss-
Tishomingo-Union.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday
for Monroe.
TN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for Benton TN-
Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 343 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-172345- Alcorn-Benton-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-Coahoma- Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-Dunklin-Dyer- Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry- Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee-Madison-Marshall-McNairy- Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett- Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate- Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha- 343 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A winter storm will begin to affect Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel later tonight. Snow is expected to develop. This will exacerbate hazardous travel conditions. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for most of the Mid-South and a Winter Weather Advisory for Monroe County, Mississippi. The next round of significant winter will spread across the Mid-South Wednesday and Thursday. Additional significant accumulations of snow, sleet, and freezing rain are likely. Hazardous travel conditions will continue. Wind chill readings will fall into the single digits Wednesday morning across northern sections of the Mid-South on Friday and Saturday mornings. Below zero wind chills are possible across northern areas Friday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay any reports of winter precipitation to the National Weather Service in Memphis.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Around three inches of snow fell. Area transportation was greatly impacted.
Around three inches of snow fell. Area transportation was greatly impacted.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 944136, 944137.