Showers and thunderstorms developed in a moist airmass ahead of a cold front. Some flooding occurred as a result.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed in a moist airmass ahead of a cold front. Some flooding occurred as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 3, 6:11 PM CST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 711 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Looks like we'll see another round of LIFR/IFR category ceilings develop later tonight through the early morning in the warm humid airmass, and the presence of a weak frontal boundary working its way into the forecast could enhance the potential for fog. The stratus/fog conditions will be slow to improve later Monday morning in what should be a weakly mixed airmass...so may not see VFR conditions return until the afternoon. Diurnally driven scattered SHRA should develop in the afternoon, particularly over central/eastern portions of the forecast area. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and tomorrow... A weak cold front remains just to the northwest this afternoon and GLH wind came around to more northwesterly on the last ob. Numerous showers have developed out ahead of the boundary with the best coverage east of I-55 this afternoon. Lapse rates are struggling and even with some diurnal heating...so far the lightning has been confined to a couple of cells. Have to keep a close eye on the storms in the southeast as the coverage is more dense with the showers...potentially dropping a lot of water if storms tend to develop in one area. For the most part, expect some of the activity to lessen in coverage after the sun sets...though scattered showers will linger through the overnight. As the front moves into the region, it also slows overnight. In the trough associated with the front...the pressure gradient is rather loose...and opens up even further into a col overnight. The winds become light and variable and with moisture from today pooling at the sfc along and ahead of the front...setting up for a fog and low ceiling event. Have put patchy fog in across the entire area. Tomorrow...similar in temperatures, slightly drier behind the weakening boundary. However, southerly flow into the region will keep the pops in the east/southeast and increase in coverage again through the afternoon hours as some wobbling of the boundary is expected with southerly flow off the Gulf. Monday night through Saturday... A frontal system will linger across eastern portions of the area Monday night and Tuesday with showers and storms continuing, with better coverage in the east. The front will move on off to our east Wednesday, but wrap around moisture from the associated low will allow for continued chances for showers and isolated storms for mainly central and eastern portions of the area. Once again, the better chances will be in the east. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly cooler, mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. High pressure will be building in Thursday and settling in for the remainder of the week into the weekend, thus dry weather can be expected. We will see a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week into the weekend, with highs back in the lower to middle 80s by Thursday into Saturday. /27/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 66 83 64 80 / 23 30 23 60 Meridian 66 81 64 77 / 45 51 48 74 Vicksburg 66 84 64 82 / 13 16 11 38 Hattiesburg 68 82 66 80 / 34 67 47 60 Natchez 67 83 63 80 / 17 20 11 27 Greenville 64 83 63 81 / 5 11 8 49 Greenwood 65 82 62 81 / 11 11 14 63 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 328 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 042030- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 328 PM CDT Sun Oct 3 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Saturday. 21 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... No short term hazards expected. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:13 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
County roads 341 and 129 were impassable due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987472.