Scattered severe thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Scattered severe thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 11:45 AM CST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Have seen an increase in 0-3 KM shear across northeastern ND and have a cluster of cells moving SE through Grand Forks county that could see 50 kt winds accordingly, and with increasing instability quarter size hail also a possibility. This cluster will weaken as it moves out of the better LL shear, and eventually into areas of MN that have been shielded from cloud cover due to early convection along the border. Would thing the central/southern valley and southeastern ND would be most likely area for any remaining severe threat today, before the next ridge rider brings another opportunity this evening. UPDATE Issued at 952 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Storms continue to sink slowly south into northwestern MN as well as one cell around Turtle Mountains that should move into Towner county over the next hour. The main impact other than potential sub-severe hail this morning may be afternoon highs, as the Day Cloud Phase Distinction GOES 16 curve clearly shows widespread IFR/low MVFR north of the border. Have begun adjusting temps in the stormy areas down a good 5 deg. This will also impact the potential 1500 to 2000 J/KG MLCAPE expected as Td rises to near 60 along the front. Potential for strong to severe storms will be dependent on how far south the storm blowoff sinks and what areas are allowed to heat out this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Cluster of storms within Manitoba has congealed into a mesoscale convective complex, and is moving southeast towards the international border. This activity is expected to move into northwest Minnesota and the northern Red River Valley this morning. It remains unclear how long convection will last this morning, but this could make it as far south as Bemidji by late morning. At this time convection is sub-severe. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Focus within the short term will be on the chance for widely scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, including the chance for a few severe storms capable of producing gusty winds and large hail. At 3 AM this morning, a west-east oriented cold front was seen on satellite imagery and observations moving through far southern MB just north of the international border. This cold front will continue to trekking southward into the CWA before stalling somewhere within the CWA tonight. Post frontal, elevated convection has blossomed early this morning near the Manitoba Escarpment and Dauphin Lake. This activity should trend east-southeast, perhaps into far northwest MN around mid morning should it continue. However general consensus is for this activity to eventually diminish this morning after sunrise. Otherwise widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near or behind the front this afternoon into early evening. Moisture pooling near the front (already evident this morning) beneath steep mid level lapse rates should sustain moderate instability (2-3 kJ/kg MLCAPE) near the front. Forecast hodographs within CAMS reveal there may be just enough shear to organize convection, with northwesterly flow aloft creating a unidirectional presentation. This presents the potential for splitting supercell dynamics to evolve; although with shear on the weak side, mesocyclones may be transient. With flow and storm motion generally perpendicular to the front, semi-discrete and clusters are favored for initial storm modes. With supercell dynamics possible, large hail up to 2 inches and gusty winds to 60 mph will be main hazards for strongest storms exhibiting well defined mesocyclones. Some CAMs like the HRRR suggest capping coupled with a lack of more robust forcing for ascent prevents any convection from developing at all. This however is an outlier within the CAM suite. Another uncertain facet to this afternoon's development is the location of favored initiation. Most individual CAMs have differing depictions of the front's placement within the CWA, thus depicting different locations for potential storms. With forcing for storms being weak, coverage in storms will likely be on the hit and miss spectrum. By this evening, additional convection may develop behind the now stalled front ahead of a wave to approach the Northern Plains Tuesday. With similar instability and kinematics still lingering near the region, a few storms may continue to be strong. Tuesday may feature continued shower and storms chances ahead of the next wave and stalled front across the area. Otherwise the forecast will feature continued warm conditions with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with perhaps of a bit more humidity. Behind the front, smoke will likely be near the surface, perhaps dense at times. It remains uncertain how dense, but locations north of US Hwy 2 have the chance for noticeable smoke at ground level, especially near the international border. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 The continued heat and precipitation chances are the main challenges throughout the long term portion of the forecast. High temperatures during the entire period look to range in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with lows generally in the 60s. These are roughly about 5 to 15 degrees above the normal highs and lows. What may impact these temperatures slightly would be the continued veil of high level smoke or any clouds/precipitation. The smoke seems to have been keeping highs lately in the upper 80s to low 90s, restricting the highs in the mid to upper 90s. And with no changes expected to this high level smoke, a continuation of the same seems likely. As far as those precipitation chances, they remain tough to nail down too far out. At this point, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and Friday into Friday night may bring the "best" chances. For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, surface low pressure remains over the western high plains, with all the components for elevated convection kicking in to the east. Where exactly those components focus is slightly different between the various models, and means the difference between rainfall potential and nothing at all. At this point, there seems to be better consensus in development over southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba, with the activity possibly dropping southeast into the northern FA toward Wednesday morning. The next best chance for precipitation would be Friday into Friday night, as a decent 500mb short wave briefly flattens the ridging as it moves through. Again there are timing and placement differences between the various models, but a weak surface low and boundary could push through, providing a little better focus. This is a long ways out, so it will bear watching with later model runs. Hence at this point, precipitation chances are fairly low. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 A line of cells along Hwy 2 is moving SE and cleared both BJI/TVF...with GFK just starting to rain and thunder. Will likely need a tempo group for FAR in about an hour. The west end of the line of cells is just east of DVL, and should remain off-station, but close. Latest guidance is starting to erode IFR/MVFR across southern Canada however HCO did go to IFR cigs on the last ob. Will need to watch how far south it gets, but leaving out mention in GFK/TVF for now. The next upper wave could bring more TSRA along boundary later this evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. UPDATE...Speicher SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...Godon AVIATION...Speicher
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 835 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-201345- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- 835 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today into tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe bringing gusty winds up to 60 mph and large hail up to one inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated thunderstorms are possible about every day, mainly during the evening and overnight periods. These storms could bring needed rainfall to small areas, or due to their slow movement, could also bring heavy amounts of rain to small areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. PJS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
102 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021
MNZ001-002-015-NDZ026>030-039-191900-
West Polk MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-Griggs ND-Nelson ND-Steele ND-
Traill ND-Cass ND-Grand Forks ND-
102 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NORMAN...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHERN GRAND FORKS...SOUTHEASTERN NELSON...
NORTHWESTERN CASS...TRAILL...NORTHEASTERN GRIGGS AND STEELE COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...
At 101 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mallory to Arvilla to near Sharon.
Movement was southeast at 45 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Mallory, Davidson and East Grand Forks around 105 PM CDT.
Bygland and Golden Lake around 110 PM CDT.
Fisher and Sherbrooke around 115 PM CDT.
Holmes, Eldred and Climax around 125 PM CDT.
Clifford and Greenview around 135 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Grand Forks Airport
and American Crystal Sugar.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.
&&
LAT...LON 4729 9682 4703 9753 4769 9813 4795 9754
4803 9703 4751 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 323DEG 37KT 4787 9696 4792 9751 4761 9780
JRPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
122 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1255 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E LOGAN CENTER 47.80N 97.78W
07/19/2021 M55.00 MPH Grand Forks ND MESONET
MEASURED 55 MPH GUST...10 METER SENSOR...AT NDAWN STATION
LOGAN CENTER 2 E.
0110 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SE KEMPTON 47.76N 97.52W
07/19/2021 M57.00 MPH Grand Forks ND MESONET
MEASURED 57 MPH GUST AT NDAWN STATION KEMPTON 6 SE.
&&
ALEEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
130 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0118 PM TSTM WND GST HATTON 47.64N 97.46W
07/19/2021 E65 MPH TRAILL ND PUBLIC
ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH IN HATTON.
&&
ALEEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
151 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S HILLSBORO 47.37N 97.06W
07/19/2021 E55.00 MPH Traill ND NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE ESTIMATE OF 50 TO 60 MPH JUST SOUTH OF
HILLSBORO AHEAD OF MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
&&
ALEEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
226 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0214 PM TSTM WND GST CASSELTON 46.90N 97.21W
07/19/2021 M55.00 MPH CASS ND PUBLIC
55 MPH GUST MEASURED WITH PERSONAL WEATHER STATION IN
NORTHERN CASSELTON.
0217 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NW PROSPER 47.01N 97.09W
07/19/2021 M56.00 MPH Cass ND MESONET
MEASURED 56 MPH GUST...10 METER SENSOR...AT NDAWN STATION
PROSPER 5 NW.
&&
ALEEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
237 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND GST FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
07/19/2021 M61 MPH CASS ND ASOS
MEASURED AT HECTOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
&&
ALEEThe Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:49 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Received a public report of several large tree branches and limbs broken. A power pole was broken by the weight of limbs down on power lines. Very strong winds were reported over a several minute period.
A trained spotter reported a wind gust estimated at 60 mph.
Received a public report of up to golf ball sized hail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 975852, 975853, 975854.