Drought in Minnesota, August 1 to 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

The forecast is in fine shape this evening. The only changes made
were minor adjustments to smoke coverage/timing in the weather
grids for tonight, based off the most recent satellite/surface obs
and smoke dispersion model output.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Have seen some relief from the smoke across the area this afternoon,
as the cold front that pushed through this morning has allowed
cleaner air into the area and increased visibilities over 6 miles.
As expected, the SD air quality stations have also shown improving
air quality from north to south. That said, we're not in the clear
from the smoke over the next couple of days (see below). Otherwise,
seeing gusty northerly winds (gusts to 17-23kts) across the area
this afternoon behind the front and ahead of the surface high on the
Manitoba/Saskatchewan border. Temps have warmed up well this
afternoon with the less filtered sunshine and are in the 80s as of
2pm.

Aloft, upper trough axis is quickly dropping southeast across ND
this afternoon (main energy approaching the MN arrowhead) and will
sweep through the area this evening. This will put the area under
northwesterly winds aloft, as we're between the upper ridge over the
western Rockies and the upper trough that moves through the Great
Lakes and then northeast U.S. Overall, there's not much change to
that pattern during the short term, which will lead to dry/quiet
conditions across the area. This is tied to the previously mentioned
Canadian surface high, which will slowly move to the southeast and
reach the eastern Iowa area by 12Z Monday. Thus, after today's gusty
winds, we should see much lighter winds tomorrow, but still out of
the northerly direction. That does bring up one concern for the
forecast, the smoke potential. Do see a couple thicker areas of
smoke to the north and northeast of the area, which may bring the
potential for another period of reduced visibilities near the
surface and filtered sunshine. Based on the latest trends and
forecasted low level flow, thinking west-central MN and eastern SD
would have the best opportunity to get the thicker smoke that's
currently reducing visibilities in northeast ND and northern MN.
Will highlight that area with areas of smoke for tonight into the
tomorrow period and continue to show slightly higher sky cover for
smoke aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Thinking remains in-line with previous discussions regarding the
long term forecast. An upper-level ridge will be in place across the
Rockies through Tuesday, and this feature will keep the CWA quiet in
terms of precipitation, seasonable in terms of temperatures, and
relatively low humidity-wise. However, a series of incoming
shortwaves look to break down the ridge by mid-week. The
implications of this include increased humidity, gradually warming
temperatures, and a few thunderstorm opportunities through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Smoke remains the primary concern for the TAF forecast. It is the
only thing preventing VFR conditions from prevailing throughout the
entire TAF valid period at all four terminals. Pockets of near
surface smoke continue to stream southward through the region within
the northerly component boundary layer winds. Throughout the TAF
valid period, especially east in the region, these northerly winds
will continue, which means there remains potential for seeing
periods of reduced visibility due to (wildfire) smoke.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-011200-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-
Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 /152 PM MDT Sat Jul 31 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Areas of wildfire smoke is possible at times through tonight,
especially over eastern portions of South Dakota. This may to locally
reduced visibilities at time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

More wildfire smoke will be possible on Sunday which could lead to
additional periods of reduced visibility. The smoke is expected to
continue to affect the area into the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-011200-
Traverse-Big Stone-
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

An Air Quality Alert remains in effect. Air quality will remain in
the unhealthy category due to wildfire smoke. Visibility will also
be reduced at times through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An Air Quality Alert remains in effect until 3 PM CDT Tuesday. Air
quality will remain in the unhealthy category due to wildfire smoke.
Visibility will also remain low at times through the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SRF