An isolated instance of flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
An isolated instance of flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 8:08 PM EST, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will continue to slowly advance north across the region as waves of low pressure track along the front. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Tuesday. The remnants of Fred will then cross the area Wednesday into early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Latest analysis indicates the stalled boundary continuing to lift northward as a warm front as Bermuda high pressure off the Carolinas transports additional moisture northward. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fred continues to make landfall across the Florida Panhandle. WV imagery shows upper level ridging aloft, co-located with the aforementioned Bermuda high as shortwave advection traverses along the ridge axis, positioned over the Appalachians. As a result, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight into the overnight hours. Overall forecast has remained mostly on track through early this evening. Some heavier bouts of showers and thunderstorms have prompted isolated instances of Flood/Flash Flood Warnings. While central portions of our area appear to be winding down in terms of heavier bouts of rainfall, current radar shows a training line of thunderstorms down in the southern Central Shenandoah Valley and Central Foothills. Downstream, moisture continues to advect in from the south. Appears there is some orographic lift ensuing the convective line, giving rain rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Thus, will continue to monitor the situation over the next few hours, especially with an already ongoing Flood Warning across the southern half of the Blue Ridge. Additional, will have to continue to watch the potential for additional hydro warning across portions of the Potomac Highlands and Western MD as earlier guidance suggested heavier rainfall occurring in this area late tonight. While FFG remains quite high in this area, high PWATS and overall better forcing could quickly prompt instances of flooding through the overnight hours. Model guidance has been mediocre at best. However the overall trend has been for convection to gradually wane during the overnight hours as instability weakens. However there remains a non-zero chance for convection to continue through early tomorrow morning; some of which may produce heavy rainfall. Lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... The warm front should lift further north of the area on Tuesday, though some models indicate heavier rain lingering during the morning hours in northeast Maryland before it does so. Otherwise, the mid level ridge pushes westward and brings in a mid level dry slot. Overall, this should allow for lower rain chances, though a few showers and storms will remain possible about. Some filtered sun is possible, especially east of the Blue Ridge, which will help temperatures warm into the mid 80s and allow some slightly stronger instability to build. Therefore, if thunderstorms do develop, they would have a better chance of becoming strong with modest shear aloft, though poor lapse rates will likely be a limiting factor. Locally heavy rain and flooding potential will still be a possibility as well. Showers may be a bit more common closer to the Appalachians due to additional vorticity advection aloft, but there have been some decreases in rain potential there as well. Eye then turn to the remnants of Fred. Track and speed are somewhat divergent in model guidance still, though the general consensus is a path near or west of the Appalachians later Tuesday night and then advancing through Pennsylvania by Wednesday or Wednesday night. The speed of the system as well as how much rain falls over the next 24 hours will play a factor in the flood risk, though in general that threat increases with westward extent. A more eastward track could put the urban areas at risk too. There will also be a lot of wind shear associated with the system, so there could be a risk of severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes depending on how the systems evolves. Temperatures will likely be modulated by the amount of cloud cover, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will be positioned between an upper level low over the upper midwest and an upper high along the east coast on Thursday. The positioning of these two systems will funnel the remnants of tropical Storm Fred northeastward toward New York and New England. A weak westerly flow at both the surface and at 850 will usher in a brief lull in widespread precipitation on Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will be mild in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s and lower 70s. A shortwave is forecast to move through the flow bringing the return of precipitation to our region late Thursday night and into Friday. The upper level low off to the northwest is forecast to be absorbed into a trough building over the upper plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be a threat Friday through this weekend as the trough axis over the plains builds down over our region. The surface flow is expected to remain light and variable through this period which should prevent deep warm air advection and limit surface high temps to the mid to upper 80s. The main story through this weekend will be continued chances for showers along with an isolated threat for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front will continue moving north across the region into Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening resulting in brief CIG/VSBY reductions but will be difficult to time more than an hour in advance. Chances for thunderstorms diminish overnight however will remain non- zero. Clouds will likely lower again tonight, with fairly high probabilities of IFR affecting most terminals. Off and on showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain possible through the night. Conditions likely improve as the warm front pushes further north Tuesday into Wednesday, but reduced conditions again likely Wednesday into Wednesday night as Fred's remnants pass the area with potentially heavy rain. Winds should become light and variable behind the exiting Tropical Storm Fred. Showers from a nearby upper trough axis will be possible Thursday through this weekend bringing continued chances for subVFR conditions. && .MARINE... As a warm front lifts north tonight, southeast to southerly winds may come close to Small Craft Advisory criteria around southern Maryland, but should remain below criteria. The warm front will lift north Tuesday, leading to lighter winds, although there could be a gusty thunderstorm during the afternoon or evening. Tuesday night, southerly channeling looks likely to increase as the front clears the area, potentially resulting in SCA conditions for portions of the waters. Elevated winds may continue Wednesday and Wednesday night as the remnants of Fred pass near the area. Strong thunderstorms could also occur depending on the track. Winds are expected to become light and variable by the end of this week with subSCA conditions expected Thursday and Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Developing southeasterly easterly flow as a warm front pushes north across the region will result in increasing water levels. Sensitive locations like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront may be very close to minor flood stage tonight, but confidence is low. Southerly flow associated with the remnants of Fred will further exacerbate water level rises. This may result in additional minor flooding at sensitive sites Wednesday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ADS/SOUZA NEAR TERM...SOUZA SHORT TERM...ADS/SOUZA LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...ADS/SOUZA/JMG MARINE...ADS/SOUZA/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 807 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ052>057-171000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 807 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated instances of flooding are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Additional periods of heavy rain and flooding are possible from tropical moisture Tuesday through Thursday due in part to the remnants of Fred. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Fred. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary over the next several days. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- WVZ050>053-055-171000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 807 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated instances of flooding are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Additional periods of heavy rain and flooding are possible from tropical moisture Tuesday through Thursday due in part to the remnants of Fred. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Fred. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary over the next several days. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-171000- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 807 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Isolated instances of flooding are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Additional periods of heavy rain and flooding are possible from tropical moisture Tuesday through Thursday due in part to the remnants of Fred. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with Fred. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary over the next several days.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0928 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E WOLFE MILL 39.66N 78.66W
08/16/2021 ALLEGANY MD 911 CALL CENTER
POWERLINES DOWN NEAR HINKLE RD NE AND NATURES WAY NE
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2105526
KLWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0947 PM FLOOD 3 NE SHADY GROVE 39.66N 78.12W
08/16/2021 MORGAN WV 911 CALL CENTER
POTOMAC RD CLOSED BETWEEN JIM WEST RD AND RIVER RD DUE
TO DOWN TREES AND ROAD UNDER WATER.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2105527
KLWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1016 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 PM FLOOD 2 NNE HARRISONBURG 38.46N 78.87W
08/16/2021 CITY OF HARRISONBU VA 911 CALL CENTER
REPORTS OF HIGH WATER AROUND THE 900 BLOCK OF N LIBERTY
ST.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2105528
MSSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1226 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1217 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 W RIVERCREST 38.92N 77.14W
08/17/2021 FAIRFAX VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
VA-689 CHESTERBROOK ROAD WAS CLOSED AT LITTLE PIMMIT
RUN.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2105529
BJLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1227 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1135 PM FLOOD TAYLORSTOWN 39.25N 77.57W
08/16/2021 LOUDOUN VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING AROUND CATOCTIN
CREEK. TAYLORSTOWN ROAD IS CLOSED BOTH WAYS BETWEEN
LOYALTY ROAD & DOWNEY MILL ROAD.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2105530
BROPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1235 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1221 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N NATIONAL ZOO 38.94N 77.05W
08/17/2021 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
BROAD BRANCH ROAD NW CLOSED BOTH WAYS BETWEEN
BRANDYWINE STREET NW & BEACH DRIVE NW DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX2105531
BROThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 42 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:40 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A rapid rise along the northern branch of the Anacostia River caused the water to rise above flood stage, cresting at 9.31 feet at 1:00 AM EST. Backyards of homes on Kemps Mill Road just south of Randolph Road were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maryland in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Maryland, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 980406.