A cold front and surface low pressure system were slowly progressing eastward across the central Commonwealth during the overnight/early morning hours of Wednesday, September 22nd. With deep southerly flow ahead of this system, a developing upper level low, and a strengthening surface low, this set the stage for creating a moist, warm environment with good lift.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cold front and surface low pressure system were slowly progressing eastward across the central Commonwealth during the overnight/early morning hours of Wednesday, September 22nd. With deep southerly flow ahead of this system, a developing upper level low, and a strengthening surface low, this set the stage for creating a moist, warm environment with good lift. Scattered showers were ongoing throughout the overnight, evolving into more widespread showers and thunderstorms heading into the daytime hours. Best instability was located over the far southeast portion of the state, which was not already worked over by the ongoing rains. As the front began to gain traction when moving into this region, the result was a linear formation within the cluster of showers, with higher rainfall rates and strong winds aloft able to mix down along the line. Because of this feature and the increased velocities, multiple severe thunderstorm warnings were issued, all mentioning the threat of at least 60 mph winds. Sure enough, multiple damage reports were received across the southeast portion of the state as it moved through.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 7:16 AM EST, 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 816 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 816 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2021 The cold front is making steady progress to the east. It is now aligned just east of a line from KSYM to KLOZ to KBYL. Winds have been gusting to 20 to 25 kts behind the boundary. Showers have filled in across the western half of the area, and these will continue to shift to the east through the rest of this morning. So far, most locations have received less than a half inch of rain; however, there have been some embedded pockets of heavier amounts of between a half inch and an inch. Have freshened up the PoPs through this morning to include the latest trends in radar as well as the higher resolution model guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 449 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2021 The latest upper level map features seasonably strong ridging in place across the western Atlantic as well as from the eastern Pacific through the Desert Southwest. A sharpening trough is planted in the middle of these features, aligned from Hudson Bay all the way through the lower Mississippi Valley. A well-defined short wave trough is moving through eastern Missouri. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the central/southern Plains, with ridging extending north northeast through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario. Further east, a cold front is aligned from eastern Quebec through the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and across the lower Mississippi Valley. Multiple areas of low pressure reside along the front, with a more notable one currently seen across northeastern Kentucky. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been ramping up across locations near and west of I-75 in the past few hours. To the east, clearing has allowed for some river valley fog, although thicker clouds are on the doorstep. Temperatures currently range from the mid 60s to around 70. The models are fairly well clustered regarding the evolution of an upper level low that will swing across the Ohio Valley through the short term portion of the forecast. At the surface, low pressure will deepen today as it pivots into Ohio. The cold front looks to clear eastern Kentucky by early this afternoon, with high pressure gradually working in from the west and southwest through Thursday. Widespread shower activity and isolated to scattered storms will gradually overspread the area from west to east this morning. Some locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat at locations that see multiple rounds of showers and storms, especially through early this morning along and west of I-75. To the east, a marginal threat of a stronger storm or two also remains in place, especially closer to the West Virginia border, where there is a better chance of seeing some instability recovery, although values continue to look modest. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s in the far east, to the mid and upper 60s west. Breezy west to west southwest winds will ensue through the day, especially as a dry slot works in this afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower activity will linger into tonight, as cyclonic flow abounds across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Temperatures will cool off to the 40s and 50s, with the cooler temperatures generally found to the south, where better clearing will take place. Thursday will feature breezy west southwest winds, with a mostly cloudy start to the day, before heights recover enough to allow for some mix out later in the day. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of the year, generally in the mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 432 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2021 A pleasant, fall-like feel will characterize the beginning of the extended. The front will be situated well to the east of out region as the upper level low continues to pivot north/northeast through the Great Lakes and into Canada. With the cooler airmass still solidly in place, temperatures will start off chilly in the low to mid 40s, with a few valley locations potentially getting close to that 40 degree mark. Rising heights aloft and high pressure passing at the surface will keep things uneventful through the day. Temperatures will warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s under plenty of sunshine. After another cool start in the mid to upper 40s Saturday morning, a trough swinging through the region will support a front crossing the area late in the day. However, this front will be much weaker than the one currently impacting the region, and is lacking in moisture available to it. Models aren't in complete agreement over the coverage of rain across the area, but in general, given the lack of moisture, rain should be fairly limited, with the better chances further north in the area, and any rain that does fall is expected to be light. The biggest impact felt by most will likely be some increased cloud cover. Highs Saturday are a bit warmer compared to Friday, but still pleasant in the low to mid 70s. After this frontal passage, heights rise and dry weather once again dominates under high pressure. Southwest flow around the high will help moderate temperatures each day through the early part of the week. Highs climb to the upper 70s to around 80 by Tuesday, while lows peak in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday morning. Late Tuesday through Wednesday is a bit more uncertain, as model solutions vary widely around another disturbance possibly impacting the area by supporting more rain chances. The NBM keeps things dry, but ensemble spread is high and models have been inconsistent, so some PoPs eventually getting introduced late Tuesday might not be out of the question depending on how things trend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2021 A potent cold front will continue to move through eastern Kentucky through the rest of this morning, generally clearing the area between 16 and 17z. Showers, as well as a few embedded thunderstorms, with MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities at times through early this afternoon. Some partial scattering of the lower cloud deck will be possible later today, before clouds thicken and lower once again as we head into this evening. Shower activity will also become more scattered in nature by this afternoon, before ending from southwest to northeast overnight tonight. South to southeast winds of 5 to 10 kts will veer to the northwest at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts. Winds will then gradually diminish after dusk. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 458 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-231200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 458 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible through this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will occur at any locations that see multiple rounds of storms. Additionally, some storms may contain strong wind gusts, especially over far eastern Kentucky. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GEOGERIAN/HAS
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 87 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:38 UTC.
8 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Knox County Dispatch reported a tree was down across KY-3441 near the GR Hampton Elementary School in southern Barbourville.
Breathitt County Dispatch reported a tree down across KY-1098 near mile marker 12 as strong storms moved through.
Leslie County Dispatch reported telephone lines were down and blocking both lanes of KY-80 near the intersection with Wooton Road in the community of Wooton, just southwest of Hazard.
Kentucky State Police reported a tree down and partially blocking US-421 near the community of Cawood.
Kentucky State Police reported a tree down across KY-1088 (Lotts Creek Road/Yellow Creek Road), at about the halfway point, east of Hazard.
A tree was reported down along KY-404 in the vicinity of the David community.
The public reported several trees down near the community of Polly due to strong thunderstorm wind gusts that moved through.
The Highway Department reported a tree down along KY-1428 in the vicinity of the communities of Emma and Alvin.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987356, 987357, 987355, 987359, 987358, 987362, 987360, 987361.