Dense Fog in Kentucky, May 27, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1017 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

With clearing skies, very low dew point depressions, and light to
calm winds, confidence was high enough to issue a Dense Fog
Advisory for southwest Indiana and most of west Kentucky. In
collaboration with surrounding offices, the Advisory will run
from 06-14z Thursday. Rest of the forecast for tonight is in good
shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

A few isolated showers/storms may linger into early this evening,
then the rest of the evening and overnight will be dry.

For Thursday into Thursday night, models show a low pressure
system moving from Iowa into central Illinois. This will slowly
drag a cold front toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys. The cold front will move across the PAH forecast area
late Thursday night into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop well out ahead of the front. Latest model runs
continue to slow the onset of precipitation in our region. At this
point, included some slight chances for our western half of
counties by late Thursday morning, but decent chances should hold
off until at least Thursday afternoon, and went with good chances
west to slight chance east by late afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will become numerous and widespread during the
evening and overnight hours, and continue into Friday. Chances
will gradually taper off from west to east Friday, with a return
of dry conditions Friday night.

Portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois are in the
SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk, with the rest of our region in Slight to
Marginal. The limiting factor is the timing of the frontal
passage, thus just a small portion of the PAH fa is in the
Enhanced. Despite the lack of surface heating, we will have plenty
of instability and moisture in place across our region, with the
prime time for severe during the very late afternoon through the
evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

High pressure will build over the eastern U.S. for the weekend.
North winds will continue to bring in much cooler air, with highs on
Saturday only in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, and lows
Saturday night in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.  With even
more sunshine Sunday and winds becoming easterly, temperatures will
begin to moderate with highs in the middle 70s, and lows Sunday
night in the middle 50s.

Winds will become southeast on Monday, and this will bring even
warmer conditions and gradually increasing moisture.  Dew points in
the 40s over the weekend will increase to the middle 50s by Monday
afternoon, with high temperatures back to around 80 degrees.

Models continue to show a surface low developing over the Central
Plains Monday into Tuesday. Timing of the eastward movement in
general has slowed, and we now have Monday into most of Monday
night dry. We have continued slight to low chances pops for
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with better chances by Wednesday, but
overall confidence for the time period is fairly low.
Temperatures should be near seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm will diminish by early evening.
Cigs will improve, reaching VFR levels by this evening. Some patchy
fog is likely overnight, especially where greater rainfall occurred
so far. Winds will be SW to W 5-10 knots this afternoon before
dropping off to near calm levels tonight allowing some patchy fog to
develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for KYZ006>022.

&&

UPDATE...DWS
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...RS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Paducah KY
939 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-280245-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
939 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM Thursday morning
for portions of western Kentucky and southwest Indiana. Refer to the
text of the Dense Fog Advisory for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms across the area
Thursday afternoon and night. Damaging winds will be the most
likely hazard. A brief spin up tornado or two could cause some
enhanced wind damage locally. Marginally severe hail is possible.
Very heavy rainfall is likely with the stronger storms. However,
isolated flooding issues, if any develop, should be short lived.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested Thursday afternoon and night.