A warm front lifted north into the state Saturday, allowing for an intensification of moisture advection into the area. This was then followed up by a passing cold front and associated cold front, both of which provided lift and helped provide heavy rains across the state.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A warm front lifted north into the state Saturday, allowing for an intensification of moisture advection into the area. This was then followed up by a passing cold front and associated cold front, both of which provided lift and helped provide heavy rains across the state. While instability was limited, there was some severe thunderstorms which produced hail during the morning hours of Saturday, March 27th. The main story, however, was the flooding that occurred after the rounds of heavy rain Saturday night into Sunday.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 27, 4:12 AM EST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 512 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 PM EDT FRI MAR 26 2021 Did a quick update to the grids mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 830 PM EDT FRI MAR 26 2021 23z sfc analysis shows high pressure passing through the Ohio Valley this evening. This has cleared the sky over eastern Kentucky likely setting the stage for a decent ridge to valley temperature split overnight. Temperatures are currently varying from the mid 50s in the valleys to the mid 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile, dewpoints are mainly in the low to mid 40s amid light winds. Have updated the forecast through the night mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td ones and also to tweak the fog potential along the rivers into Saturday morning. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 445 PM EDT FRI MAR 26 2021 Late this afternoon, the region remained under southwest flow aloft between upper ridging centered near the Bahamas and an upper level trough that extended from central Canada south into the Northern Plains and then southwest to the Four Corners region and southwest Conus. Height rises have been occurring across much of the southeast and into the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon while a sfc ridge of high pressure also was across the region. This combination has led to a gradual retreat of low clouds back to the north this afternoon. Tonight, height rises should continue through most of the night between the ridge centered to the southeast of the area and the upper level trough to the west. A stalled out sfc frontal zone across the Gulf states will begin to return north tonight as a warm front, before likely moving across the area on Saturday to Saturday evening as sfc low pressure further strengthens as it nears the mid MS Valley. A shortwave trough in southwest flow aloft may also cross the area during this time. This sfc low is expected to track northwest of the area and into the Great Lakes on Saturday evening, before reaching Lake Huron by dawn on Sunday. The trailing cold front will cross the area on Sunday night. A substantial increase in moisture will occur across the area from Saturday into Saturday evening as the warm front lifts north and in advance of the cold front. Instability will probably again be a bit limited as with the previous system, but mid level lapse rates are expected to approach or possibly exceed 7C/km late on Saturday and Saturday evening with the warm advection/isentropic lift driven convection. Wind fields aloft will be rather strong so a strong to severe thunderstorm is possible with the late Saturday to Saturday evening convection and probably in a line along or in advance of the cold front. HREF mean SBCAPE is highest across the southwest portions of the CWA once again for this system, so severe chances appear highest there. HREF Updraft helicity probabilties focus across TN and areas to the southwest of there, but probabilities do extend into the lower OH Valley to include southern and eastern KY generally consistent with the SPC Day 2 Outlook. It does appear that multiple rounds of convection are possible pending how quickly the warm front lifts north and with the mid level lapse rates likely higher during the evening, MUCAPE could get into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range while bulk shear is in excess of 50KT. This could lead to organized convection that may be generally elevated, with heavy rain rates and possibly some generally small hail a threat as well. Some convection could also mix stronger momentum to the sfc, so gusty winds are also expected to be a threat. HREF PMM 24 hour rainfall ending at 12Z on Sunday is generally half to three quarters of an inch over the far southeast with 1.5 to 2 inches across the far northwest and 2 to 3 near the TN border. The threat for heavy rain and gusty winds appear to be the primary threats and are mentioned in the HWO. Otherwise, for tonight, with high pressure dominating for much of the night, but high clouds increasing and starting to lower late, eastern valley locations will be colder than the past couple of mornings. The normally colder spots should make a run at the 40 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 512 AM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 Looks like models have trended away from the potential Monday night/Tuesday, which leaves only one good shot for precip potential during the extended. We will be starting off the period Sunday night with a departing surface front. Moisture/precip should exit by 0Z, and the amplified upper level trough axis should be passing over. After 0Z, drier but much colder NW flow will take hold. Clouds should quickly dissipate as this drier but cooler air advects in. However, with clearing skies and a cooler airmass, still expecting areas to widespread frost overnight as temps drop into the low 30s in most places. In fact, wouldn't be surprised if the SW CWA saw some of the coldest temperatures, as this NW wind direction is favored for decoupling here. High pressure will take hold from our west for the day Monday, and the flow aloft will begin to deamplify, becoming more zonal by the afternoon/evening. Yesterday, the ECMWF and GFS showed an upper level low moving through the southern states, with the ECMWF being displaced farther north, and therefore bringing precip chances to the JKL CWA heading into Tuesday. The latest runs are now in better agreement, keeping this low suppressed much farther southward across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Instead, high pressure should remain in control of the Ohio Valley, exiting to our east by Tuesday, but otherwise keeping us mostly clear and dry. That being said, given our location on the return flow side of the exiting high pressure system, and with flow becoming more SWrly aloft, temperatures should warm nicely into the upper 60s and low 70s by Tuesday afternoon. This increasing SW flow aloft will be in response to another very strong upper level trough that will be in place across much of the central and western Conus by Tuesday afternoon. As this system continues to push eastward, heights will quickly fall Tuesday night across the Ohio Valley. A strengthening surface low pressure system will also be present across south-central Canada, in accordance with the center of the upper level low. A potent cold front will drop southward from this system, being pushed forward by the leading edge of the troughing. Several spot lows will also develop along the front, which will be located across the Mississippi Valley by 18Z Tuesday. As warm air and moisture advection increase ahead of this front across the Deep South, Tennessee Valleys, and KY, precip will begin to impact the CWA from both the south, as well as the west ahead of the quickly approaching front. Both the GFS and ECMWF have precip starting in JKL just after 0Z Wednesday, increasing in coverage and becoming widespread during the day Wednesday as the front begins to pass over. Both models also agree that the best QPF swath will likely be across the SE CWA. Kept with WPC QPF at this point in the forecast, but based on the latest model solutions, wouldn't be surprised if QPF trends higher over the coming forecasts. An interesting fact about this system...the latest GFS soundings show the front passing over most locations by 18Z Wednesday, with a quick shift to northerly flow at the surface and falling temperatures, creating a sharp inversion. Because of this, it is very possible that we will miss out on the best convective potential, as even overnight and morning instability seems rather lacking leading into the event. However, can't rule out some thunderstorms...just not sure the severity of them at this point. Even the NBM only went with slight chances of thunder. Perhaps of more concern than the thunderstorm potential with this system is the post-frontal conditions. This will be a potent front mainly because of the how deep the upper level trough is, with deep SW flow on the front end, but then a very strong pull of cold Canadian air on the backside, creating quite the clash of air masses. Post-frontal temperatures will fall quickly after the frontal passage, and especially after about 6Z to 12Z Thursday, which is when the axis of the trough is expected to pass over. It is looking more likely that temperatures will fall below freezing as the last of the precip exits...so still can't rule out some light snow potential in some locations. Furthermore, as this drier but colder air continues to filter in for Thursday and Thursday night, we could see the return of more winter like weather. Highs on Thursday are currently forecast in the mid and upper 40s, and lows Thursday night (with clear skies and high pressure overhead) could easily drop into the low to mid 20s. Nrly flow aloft will slowly slacken heading into Saturday, and high pressure should remain in control of Kentucky, shifting just east of the state. So expect mostly sunny skies to end your week, and temperatures to begin modifying a bit warmer. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 222 AM EDT SAT MAR 27 2021 Clear skies and unrestricted conditions will give way to increasing clouds from the south after sunrise. Showers and perhaps thunderstorms can then be expected in southern and southeastern KY this afternoon. This will probably result in sub- VFR conditions for a time. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening further north. The precipitation would be accompanied by more sub-VFR conditions, but confidence in timing/locations is too low to warrant inclusion of more than VCTS in TAFs during the evening/night at this time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 627 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 627 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway today, and then area wide tonight. Heavy rainfall is likely in some areas, leading to a threat of flooding, mainly late tonight. There is also a small potential for some of the storms to become severe, especially tonight, with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning, and could bring heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms are also possible in some locations Wednesday into Wednesday night. Frost is expected early Monday morning, and could be widespread in some locations. Another cold snap is expected by late next week, as temperatures could drop into the 20s behind a departing system Thursday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report occurrences of hail, damaging wind, or flooding through tonight. HAL/JMW
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:58 UTC.
17 heavy rain, 8 flood, 7 flash flood, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
The cooperative observer station in the Heidrick community measured 2.80 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The cooperative observer station near Ermine measured 2.20 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The cooperative observer station near the community of Skyline measured 2.65 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The Kentucky Mesonet station near Barbourville measured 3.49 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The Kentucky Mesonet station just north of Whitley City measured 4.05 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The Kentucky Mesonet station on Black Mountain measured 2.42 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The Kentucky Mesonet station northeast of Somerset measured 2.04 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The Kentucky Mesonet station on the west side of Whitesburg measured 2.56 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The YELK2 (Yellow Creek) RAWS observing site near Cumberland Gap measured 4.34 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The SOMK2 (Somerset) RAWS observing site measured 2.02 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The CHTK2 (Peabody) RAWS observing site measured 2.06 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The cooperative observing station near Whitley City measured 4.20 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
A trained weather spotter in Mount Vernon reported 2.90 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
A trained weather spotter in the city of Corbin measured 3.15 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The cooperative observing station near the community of Island City measured 2.00 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The cooperative observing station just south of Stearns reported 3.16 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
The cooperative observing station near Mouthcard measured 2.05 inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
A trained spotter reported getting hail just SW of the Hollyhill community, stating that some hail may have been slightly larger than a half dollar.
A report of pea to penny sized hail was made in north Corbin.
Dime to nickel size hail was covering the ground just southwest of the Hollyhill community in McCreary County.
A public report was received of an ongoing water rescue on May Fork Road (Left Fork Otter Creek Road) just before 5am, involving 4 people being rescued from their mobile home as waters rose from nearby Otter Creek. About 30 mins later, 911 dispatch reported that water rescues were still ongoing on May Fork Road and were becoming increasingly difficult as roads were becoming more inundated and flooded from rising waters in the area.
A culvert washed out overnight, causing Parton Branch Road to be flooded near KY-190 in the Chenoa community.
Water was reported across the road at the intersection of Hwy 221 and 2011. No information on the impacts or if the road is passable.
A house was reported as being flooded with a ongoing water rescue on Lower Gibson Road on the western side of Middlesboro.
Yards were reported flooded and water was surrounding some homes in the Elcomb community of Harlan County.
Officials were in the process of closing Kelly Street in the community of Evarts due to high water from Turners Branch making the road impassable.
Officials were in the process of closing one lane of Hwy 119 due to high water over the road.
Dispatch reported that Hwy 23 near Blakes Fork road is impassible due to high water.
Dispatch reported that Hwy 1363 is closed between mile markers 5 and 8 due to high water on road.
Hwy 72 near Caball Estates in the Catrons Creek community is impassable according to pictures posted to social media.
Water was reported surrounding a home on Cobra Lane northwest of Whitesburg.
Pictures on social media showed water surrounding a house in the Cranks community.
Hwy 190 is impassible in Bell County. No specifics were given as to which section of the road, however.
Hwy 1344 near the Calvin community is impassable due to water from Hances Creek overflowing onto it.
Dispatch reported a road being impassable in the McHargue community.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950861, 950862, 950863, 951164, 951165, 951170, 951184, 951185, 951187, 951188, 951189, 950865, 950866, 950867, 950868, 950871, 951161, 950760, 950761, 950763, 950850, 950864, 950854, 950857, 950858, 950859, 950860, 951194, 951191, 950870, 950869, 951190, 951198, 951202, 951200.