Strong southerly flow over several days led to the development heavy surf and rip currents at area beaches. Two rip current fatalities occurred in Escambia County FL.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MOB wrote it up.
Strong southerly flow over several days led to the development heavy surf and rip currents at area beaches. Two rip current fatalities occurred in Escambia County FL. On March 27th, a 71 year old from Minnesota died. On March 28th, a 62 year old male from Pensacola, FL died.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 27, 8:18 AM CST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
918 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021
.UPDATE...Have updated to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory for most
of the area except for near the immediate coast where some
observations and webcams still show the potential for 1/4 mile
visibilities. Made other minor adjustments. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Air that you can wear
paired with a nice order of pea soup fog along the coast will
continue today and into Sunday. The region remains between a
strong closed upper high centered over the south tip of Florida
and an approaching longwave trough moving over the Great Plains on
Saturday and east of the Mississippi River on Sunday.
Southwesterly flow aloft with a more southerly flow at the surface
will persist through the near term. Dense fog continues to slowly
advance inland from the coast and will likely move to the I- 10
corridor by daybreak. A dense fog advisory remains in effect for
some counties south of the highway 84 Corridor, and will keep
monitoring the development overnight to determine if the advisory
needs to be expanded further inland. The dense fog then lingers
along the immediate coast through Midday Saturday.
Otherwise today will be humid and mostly cloudy region-wide. There
will be a slight chance of rain showers over the western half of the
forecast area after mid morning. There will then be a slight chance
to low-end chance of showers and few thunderstorms in the afternoon
as there should be just enough instability along with upper level
impulses passing over the area. Light rain showers are expected to
linger Saturday night over the western half of the forecast area,
with areas of fog along the coast advecting inland. Dense fog can be
incredibly tricky in this kind of pattern given its marine based
with local topographic influences likely determining who becomes
dense and who doesn't. Really makes you want to pull your hair out
but current guidance probabilities are not as high on Sunday as they
were today for the potential of dense fog. However, they are still
in the 40 to 50% range of seeing less than 1 mile. IF these
probabilities trend upward the potential for another dense fog
advisory is there.
Rain chances will increase significantly on Sunday as the longwave
trough approaches from the west and adjacent surface front moves in.
Deep layer moisture will increase ahead of the boundary with PWATS
approaching 1.5 inches. We expect numerous to widespread rain
showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms to spread from the
northwest to southeast throughout the day, with localized heavy rain
possible.
Low temperatures both Saturday night are forecast to only dip into
the mid to upper 60s. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s,
except mid to upper 70s where dense sea fog persists along the coast
through midday. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler due to the
increasing rain, with mid to upper 70s across the western half of
the forecast area and along the coast, with lower 80s elsewhere.
/22/03
AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Fog and low ceilings will remain across most of the
area this morning. LIFR to VLIFR visbys a mainly confined to the
immediate coast with IFR to MVFR visbys along the I-10 corridor.
Visbys should slowly improve from north to south throughout the
morning. Cigs will also rise to MVFR by early afternoon. Winds
will remain out of the south-southeast around 10 knots. By late
afternoon, scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible mainly along and west of I-65. Cigs will drop to
LIFR/IFR again shortly after sunset and some fog could be possible
along and south of I-10. BB/03
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021/
NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Air that you can wear
paired with a nice order of pea soup fog along the coast will
continue today and into Sunday. The region remains between a
strong closed upper high centered over the south tip of Florida
and an approaching longwave trough moving over the Great Plains on
Saturday and east of the Mississippi River on Sunday.
Southwesterly flow aloft with a more southerly flow at the surface
will persist through the near term. Dense fog continues to slowly
advance inland from the coast and will likely move to the I- 10
corridor by daybreak. A dense fog advisory remains in effect for
some counties south of the highway 84 Corridor, and will keep
monitoring the development overnight to determine if the advisory
needs to be expanded further inland. The dense fog then lingers
along the immediate coast through Midday Saturday.
Otherwise today will be humid and mostly cloudy region-wide. There
will be a slight chance of rain showers over the western half of the
forecast area after mid morning. There will then be a slight chance
to low-end chance of showers and few thunderstorms in the afternoon
as there should be just enough instability along with upper level
impulses passing over the area. Light rain showers are expected to
linger Saturday night over the western half of the forecast area,
with areas of fog along the coast advecting inland. Dense fog can be
incredibly tricky in this kind of pattern given its marine based
with local topographic influences likely determining who becomes
dense and who doesn't. Really makes you want to pull your hair out
but current guidance probabilities are not as high on Sunday as they
were today for the potential of dense fog. However, they are still
in the 40 to 50% range of seeing less than 1 mile. IF these
probabilities trend upward the potential for another dense fog
advisory is there.
Rain chances will increase significantly on Sunday as the longwave
trough approaches from the west and adjacent surface front moves in.
Deep layer moisture will increase ahead of the boundary with PWATS
approaching 1.5 inches. We expect numerous to widespread rain
showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms to spread from the
northwest to southeast throughout the day, with localized heavy rain
possible.
Low temperatures both Saturday night are forecast to only dip into
the mid to upper 60s. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s,
except mid to upper 70s where dense sea fog persists along the coast
through midday. Highs Sunday will be slightly cooler due to the
increasing rain, with mid to upper 70s across the western half of
the forecast area and along the coast, with lower 80s elsewhere.
/22/03
SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Monday night/...The cold front
will move offshore Monday night and stall with some cooler and
drier filtering into the region. However, a shortwave will move
over the area Monday into Monday night. This will help move the
boundary northward as a warm front and cause over running over the
front. As a result, cloudy conditions will continue with isolated
showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Higher rain chances
expected by Monday afternoon and evening with scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms expected. Cooler lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s inland and mid 50s to near 60 along the coast are
expected behind the front Sunday night, with highs Monday only
peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Monday night range
from the low to mid 50s inland to around 60 near the coast. /13
EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The extended will begin as
an upper shortwave moves off towards the east coast and zonal flow
takes hold aloft over the northern Gulf coast. This pattern is
expected to continue through midweek until an upper trough digs
across the central CONUS towards the Deep South. At this point, the
models are in fair agreement in regards to this feature; however,
the ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the trough compared to the
GFS. The trough will then continue eastward and off the east coast
through late week as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS
and towards the Plains. At the surface, a warm front will linger
over the northern Gulf on Tuesday. This front, at least at this
point, doesn't seem like it will lift too far back north before a
cold front begins to advance over the local area on Wednesday.
However, this will be monitored. Cold FROPA is then likely during
the day on Wednesday with high pressure quickly building in over the
region behind it to round out the work week.
The weather will therefore be unsettled through midweek. Slight to
chance PoPs, with the potential for some storms, is anticipated
Tuesday and Tuesday night as southerly flow ushers in ample moisture
up from the Gulf. Rain chances will increase by Wednesday,
especially along and ahead of the cold front as it traverses the
local area. In general, models show between 1500-2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, as well as 35-40 knots of bulk shear
with this system Wednesday afternoon. Thus, thunderstorms will be
possible for most areas Wednesday into Wednesday night. By Thursday,
dry conditions will return as high pressure takes hold over the
region.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons, but cold FROPA will result in cooler highs (in
the lower to mid 60s) Thursday afternoon. Highs will then be in the
mid to upper 60s on Friday. Lows will start out in the 60s Tuesday
night, but plummet into the 40s Wednesday night. Then, there is the
potential for chilly nighttime lows come Thursday night, with upper
30s to mid 40s forecast for the local area. /26
MARINE...Dense fog will persist over the nearshore waters and bays
through the morning with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
continuing through the weekend. Fog will probably briefly subside
in Mobile Bay during the afternoon before returning tonight into
Sunday morning. A cold front will approach from the west on Sunday
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front,
moderate to strong offshore flow will develop on Monday. BB/03
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ631>636-
650-655-670-675.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mobThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 71 year old male from Minnesota had been swimming near Fort Pickens when he was pulled away by a strong rip current and subsequently drowned as a result.
A 62 year old male from Pensacola, FL was pulled away from shore by a strong rip current and drowned as a result.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Escambia Coastal | 2021-03-27 | 71 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, Escambia Coastal | 2021-03-28 | 62 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 949499, 949500.