The Little River fell below flood stage after near-record flooding on the 28th of February. The heaviest rain occurred across southern portions of western Kentucky during the morning and afternoon hours on the 28th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The Little River fell below flood stage after near-record flooding on the 28th of February. The heaviest rain occurred across southern portions of western Kentucky during the morning and afternoon hours on the 28th. This heavy rain was associated with a cold front that trailed from a low pressure system. The low moved from the Plains to the Great Lakes, placing western Kentucky in a very moist warm sector. Hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour were common, leading to storm total rainfall amounts in the 4 to 7 inch range.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:57 PM CST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1157 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Updated aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Though peak SRH values appear to shift just to our south with time, ongoing convection from still noisy, disorganized elements are modeled to come together nicely in the next 1-3 hours. Effective shear bulks up and with sufficient instability present as witnessed by lightning activity well to our north even, there is a brief mode signal for strong-svr storms/isolated tornadoes possible, as the line or LEWP takes shape and moves across the area along/in advance of the front. This will be in addition to the still impressive heavy rain signal, with 1-2" hourly rates and potentially locally higher amounts producing upwards to another 3 inches on top of already considerably flooded portions of southern Kentucky. Watch products for Tornado thru 10 PM and Flood thru Midnight are in effect. After fropa, we'll see the turned over atmosphere be replaced with a seasonal airmass. Temps that pushed to near and even into the lower 70s today, will settle back closer to climo norms for the beginning of the workweek, in the lower 50s. The next chance of pcpn, a small and inconsequential one wrt impacts, will occur Tuesday-Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The long term portion of the forecast offers somewhat of a reprieve to all the recent weather. An increasingly dry signal is modeled, with seasonal temps in the 50s and 30s for the duration of the forecast. This is due to the stronger input signal of the northeast long wave trof, which actually backbuilds some and falls heights over the Midwest. If this trend continues, it could drop down a little weekend front with some associated pops and a minor cooldown. For now, though, there does not appear to be enough member data there to inject that into the NBM's output, and for this package, we ran with its output exclusively. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1157 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Though the cigs were quite variable in the evening, MVFR conditions should dominate overnight (except in far western parts of the southeastern MO counties which will be VFR most of the time). Northerly winds 10 to 20 knots may gust as high as 30 knots for a while after midnight across parts of western KY. Expect clearing skies during the day Mon, as winds slowly subside and maintain a northerly to northwesterly direction. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 1142 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 1142 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri. .DAY ONE...Tonight Lingering areal flooding will keep some roads covered in water through the night across west Kentucky, generally from Fulton to Murray, east to Hopkinsville, Elkton and surrounding communities. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N FULTON 36.54N 88.88W
02/28/2021 M4.77 INCH FULTON KY TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL FROM RAIN GAUGE JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
FULTON. STREETS IN DOWNTOWN FULTON WERE CLOSED FOR THE
SECOND TIME TODAY BECAUSE OF HIGH WATER FROM HARRIS FORK
CREEK.
&&
DBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0634 PM FLASH FLOOD MURRAY 36.61N 88.31W
02/28/2021 CALLOWAY KY TRAINED SPOTTER
MANY ROADS STILL FLOODED DUE TO THE ONGOING
EVENING RAINS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL 5.05
INCHES.
&&
CNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Little River fell back below flood stage after cresting near its record level on the afternoon of the 28th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 943667.