A cold front slowly dropped into Kentucky during the morning of August 14. It then began to stall out during the day across eastern Kentucky.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cold front slowly dropped into Kentucky during the morning of August 14. It then began to stall out during the day across eastern Kentucky. With a humid airmass in place, this created the instability needed for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Several flash flood warnings were issued for locations that saw multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Two severe thunderstorm warnings were also issued for a storm that gained strength over far southeast Kentucky, producing damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 3:22 PM EST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 422 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 422 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021 A cold front remains just to our north, running SW and into West- Central Kentucky. Cloud cover did a good job early this afternoon with hampering convection, but with afternoon heating and clearing, scattered storms have developed along the SW bordering TN and in the north from Bath and into Fleming Co. Guidance still doesn't have the best handle, with the HRRR much drier into the night versus a wetter solution in the NAMNEST and similar Hi-Res guidance. Because of this, have went chance PoPs through tonight before redevelopment into Sunday. Theta-e surface analysis from the RAP suggests the aforementioned front to nearly stall across the KY/OH border and through Western Kentucky. Because of this, showers will again be best along the front and in the south (where the better instability lies) into the afternoon tomorrow. An upper level high continues to sit off the Southeastern Coast, but will weaken and provide less of an influence as heights lower through the period. Shear continues to be very weak with CAPE peaking between 2000 and 3000 J/kg during the afternoon today and again Sunday. This is best along our southern counties, into Central Kentucky, and down into Tennessee. This, as well as along and ahead of the front (to our north), is where we have seen the best convection so far today. Gulf moisture continues to stream into the area with the aid of southerly flow, allowing for PWATs between 1.75 and 2". Combining this with slow storm motions, localized flooding can not be ruled out through the period. This is also highlighted by WPCs day 1, 2, and 3 marginal outlook for Eastern Kentucky. Sensible weather will feature river valley fog/stratus overnight which could hamper morning visibilties periodically. Lows will be near to slightly above average, in the mid and upper 60s. With the front at a slow crawl southward, our far northern counties (Bath to Rowan and north) will be the coolest for afternoon highs, in the upper 70s. The remainder of the CWA will generally be in the lower 80s. Lows overnight Sunday will be very similar to tonight, ranging in the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 321 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021 An active weather pattern is on tap for the extended. We can expect daily chances of showers and storms, especially during peak heating each afternoon and evening. We will have a few weather systems influencing the weather of eastern Kentucky through out the upcoming work week. A weak upper level trough will be in place across the mid west, and will slowly evolve into a slow moving closed low by mid-week. This system will provide lift for shower and storm development. There will also be a slow moving cold front that will be move around the region. Tropical cyclone Fred will also be a player, as it moves northward into the Tennessee Valley next week. The latest forecast models have Fred tracking further and further west. The northward movement of Fred's remnants could act to further slow down the earlier mentioned cold front, keeping in place for an extended period of time over or near our area. Fred will also bring a good amount of tropical moisture into the region. All of these factor together should make for a week of active and wet weather. Rainfall amounts will depend largely on how Fred evolves, the amount of moisture we get into the region, and how much instability is available for storm formation. The latest model soundings suggest tall and skinny CAPE profiles, favorable for locally heavy rainfall. The latest QPF forecast was increased to higher numbers than the newest pure WPC QPF numbers to account for this. Temperatures should trend cooler than normal each day due to persistent and extensive cloud cover and precip, and a slight intrusion of cooler air from the north. Nightly lows continue to show a trend toward warmer than normal numbers on average. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021 Stratus has held on for some sites longer than expected, reducing ceilings through the morning. This remains the case for SJS which should start MVFR until returning to VFR near 19z. The remaining sites should be in VFR through the afternoon/evening with scattered showers/storms possible. River valley fog and stratus is again expected to impact TAF sites tonight, bringing most to MVFR near 8z. SME and LOZ are the exceptions, where rainfall through this afternoon could reduce both ceilings and visibilities to IFR by 11z. With daytime mixing, all TAF locations should return to VFR near 14z. Winds will generally be less than 10kts through this afternoon, calming overnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...BB LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 432 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 432 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across eastern Kentucky through this evening. Some of the storms will contain locally heavy rainfall. A few additional thunderstorms will also be possible overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible at times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GEOGERIAN/AR
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
KYZ044-142015-
Fleming KY-
338 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Fleming
County through 415 PM EDT...
At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cowan, or 8 miles west of Flemingsburg, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 35 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Nepton around 355 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Elizaville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3850 8372 3832 8384 3834 8384 3834 8386
3836 8388 3835 8390 3837 8390 3837 8391
3842 8395 3843 8397 3847 8396 3849 8393
3846 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 289DEG 9KT 3842 8389
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
GEOGERIANSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
KYZ044-051-052-142100-
Rowan KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
424 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Bath,
southeastern Fleming and northwestern Rowan Counties through 500 PM
EDT...
At 423 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pebble, or 8 miles north of Owingsville. This storm was nearly
stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Sherburne, Owingsville, Sharpsburg, Bethel and Reynoldsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3841 8352 3841 8351 3840 8350 3840 8348
3838 8345 3840 8341 3834 8337 3808 8382
3814 8388 3822 8395 3842 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 069DEG 3KT 3826 8376
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
HASThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A portion of Sunset-Locust Road near Days Mill Road was washed out due to flash flooding.
A few trees were reported down in and around the Bledsoe Community, near the Leslie County line.
A tree was downed on Highway 25 near Tractor Supply in Barbourville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 966130, 966421, 966129.