A weak disturbance crossed through the Ohio Valley on the evening of April 28th. Ahead of this disturbance, abnormally warm temperatures coupled with high moisture content were in place to aid in shower and thunderstorm develop that evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
A weak disturbance crossed through the Ohio Valley on the evening of April 28th. Ahead of this disturbance, abnormally warm temperatures coupled with high moisture content were in place to aid in shower and thunderstorm develop that evening. In eastern Kentucky a local weather station recorded around 2.8 inches of rain had fallen that evening, which ultimately led to a few instances of flash flooding between the town of Grayson and Rush, especially along Route 60. A local water rescue was conducted after a vehicle became swept up by the quickly rising water from Wilson Creek.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 6:26 PM EST, 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front late Thursday, followed by high pressure into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... Unstable conditions are present over the area this afternoon as a result of daytime heating and high moisture. Scattered showers have already developed in the southwest portion of the CWA this afternoon, and scattered showers and storms will likely become more widespread this evening. Chances for rain and some storms will continue into through the night as a shortwave trough passes across the northern portion of the CWA. With precipitable water values projected to be in the in the 1.25-1.75" range tonight, heavy rain is possible with any storms. On Thursday, a cold front will slowly progress eastward towards the area and eventually move through late in the day. Showers and storms are expected to develop ahead of and along the front. At present, there is a marginal risk for isolated severe storms to develop with wind being the primary threat. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... Showers and storms will be ongoing across the area Thursday evening as the cold front crosses. Front should be progressive by this time as the surface low will have tracked into southeast PA with the upper trof amplification pivoting into the western OH Valley. Some of the convection could be on the strong side early in the evening with the potential for damaging winds along a somewhat linear axis or QLCS structure. Locally heavy rain will also be noted which may result in some urban ponding and high water in the typical low lying trouble spots. The better chance for creek flooding would be across southeast OH where event totals of 1-2" may occur. However, this area has generally been dry over the past few weeks such that it would take a period of training as the surface wave slides by in the near term to cause issues. A decent post frontal cool airmass will overspread the area Friday and linger into Saturday. Friday may start with abundant sunshine but I expect stratocu to fill the sky with daytime heating amid strong CAA followed by some clearing for Friday night into Saturday. Daytime temperatures will average 8-12 degrees below normal with overnight lows dropping into frost territory Friday night/Saturday morning for the hollows and sheltered valleys. Saturday night will be a bit warmer as WAA aloft, though a strong ridge/valley split will be noted. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Wednesday... Pattern quickly changes to one characterized by a moist southwest flow into mid week with rounds of showers/storms to affect the area. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 726 PM Wednesday... Latest radar imagery shows scattered showers and storms increasing in coverage across the area this evening so occasional periods of MVFR vsby restrictions will be possible as this activity moves through, but IFR may occur during heavier pockets of rain. The loss of daytime heating in the late evening and overnight hours should lead to less coverage of precipitation, but scattered rain showers will continue overnight as a wave of low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. In addition, ceilings will lower overnight as the atmosphere moistens, which may lower to IFR/MVFR conditions for northern terminals, particularly KPKB and KCKB. However, it should remain mainly VFR for remaining terminals by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and storms are expected to once again develop by Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front, but showers and storms will become more widespread by Thursday evening as front approaches the area. Thus, flight conditions will deteriorate throughout the day as the atmosphere moisten and ceilings lower from west to east, eventually reaching MVFR/IFR by Thursday evening. VSBY restrictions will also be a concern with MVFR/IFR restrictions a possibility at all terminals, especially by Thursday evening as precipitation coverage increases. A 50+ kt LLJ streaming into the area ahead of the cold front may also support breezy SW winds on Thursday with gusts possibly exceeding 25 kts, particularly during periods of heavier precipitation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of impacts of CIGs/VSBYs from scattered storms may vary from TAFs. At EKN/CKB/PKB, conditions may further lower to IFR overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers/storms Thursday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && SYNOPSIS...30/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032- 039-040-523-291900- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington- Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason- Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt- Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer- Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Pocahontas- 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe weather for this afternoon and evening, with the main threats being isolated occurrence of damaging winds and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday through Thursday night, with the main threat being isolated occurrences of damaging winds. In addition, isolated high water impacts may occur Thursday with any slow moving thunderstorms. Patchy frost is possible late Friday night and early Saturday morning. A frost advisory may eventually be needed for the northern portions of the area and southeast Ohio. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-524-525-291900- Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Southeast Pocahontas- Northwest Randolph- 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and portions of northeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Patchy frost is possible late Friday night and early Saturday morning. A frost advisory may eventually be needed for the northern portions of the area with a freeze warning potential for the northern mountain valleys. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. WVZ515-517-519-521-526-291900- Northwest Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas- Northwest Webster-Southeast Randolph- 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. There is a marginal risk for severe weather for this afternoon and evening, with the main threats being isolated occurrence of damaging winds and hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday through Thursday night, with the main threat being isolated occurrences of damaging winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports. WVZ516-518-520-522-291900- Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Nicholas- Southeast Webster- 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021
OHZ066-067-282130-
Morgan-Perry-
507 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...
At 505 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Perry State
Forest, moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Prepare for a quick drop in visibility, and hydroplaning.
Locations impacted include...
Perry State Forest and Crooksville.
LAT...LON 3982 8217 3981 8207 3977 8208 3976 8191
3973 8192 3974 8227 3984 8226 3986 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 272DEG 21KT 3980 8218
12The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:28 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Route 60 became flooded between Grayson and Rush due to heavy rainfall. A water rescue was conducted along Wilson Creek after a vehicle became submerged by the quickly rising water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 952848.