A strong upper low slowly pivoted towards Arkansas from Texas on the 28th. Abundant moisture streamed into the region ahead of the system, resulting in efficient rainfall rates over the northern half of the state once showers and thunderstorm initiated.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
A strong upper low slowly pivoted towards Arkansas from Texas on the 28th. Abundant moisture streamed into the region ahead of the system, resulting in efficient rainfall rates over the northern half of the state once showers and thunderstorm initiated. Rainfall amounts of three to six inches was not uncommon, leading to flash flooding and river flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 2:17 PM CST, 6 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 317 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday An upper level low has positioned itself just to the NW of the CWA located in the Central Plains. Paired with a large upper level ridge to the east has provided a blocking pattern. This will cause this system to move slowly through the period with heavy rounds of rain likely. Already in northern parts of the CWA over an inch of rain has already fallen with much more to come. It is possible that there will be at least two distinct rounds of rain. The first round looks to be happening now for the northern half of the state. After a brief break late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, the rain will return, likely associated with the cold front. Frontal passage looks to be slow as it moves from NW to SE. Current models indicate the the front could take most of the day on Thursday to move through the state with showers still around for SE AR Thursday night. A slow moving system like this prompts concerns for flash flooding. But flash flooding will likely be isolated as current rainfall totals for year-to-date show a deficit for NW AR. In NW AR, an additional 1-3 inches is possible on top of already fallen rain. For central and southern AR, the concern for flash flooding is there, however, rainfall totals will likely be lower due to the absence of rainfall this morning. Nevertheless, rainfall total could range from 1-2 inches with locally high amounts possible. With that said, flash flooding is possible across all of the CWA, especially in areas with poor drainage or already saturated soil. && .LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Tuesday Night Weekend will start with nearly zonal flow. By late in the weekend a closed low will push off the Gulf and into the Plains providing opportunities to see widespread showers and thunderstorms in Arkansas to start the week. GFS slightly more progressive than the ECMWF which will likely be fine tuned over the coming days. Temps will be well above normal thanks to the Southerly flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 67 72 54 73 / 90 90 20 10 Camden AR 70 78 59 75 / 50 90 60 20 Harrison AR 63 70 50 71 / 100 70 10 0 Hot Springs AR 68 74 57 74 / 90 100 30 10 Little Rock AR 69 75 57 73 / 90 100 30 10 Monticello AR 71 81 60 73 / 30 90 70 30 Mount Ida AR 67 73 55 74 / 90 100 30 10 Mountain Home AR 65 72 51 72 / 100 80 0 0 Newport AR 68 74 54 73 / 90 100 20 10 Pine Bluff AR 70 78 58 73 / 60 90 50 20 Russellville AR 67 74 54 75 / 90 90 20 10 Searcy AR 68 75 54 74 / 90 100 30 10 Stuttgart AR 70 77 57 73 / 80 90 40 10 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone- Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Polk-Scott-Searcy-Stone. && Short Term...233 / Long Term...61
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-291000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area. Two to two and a half inches of rain is expected in north and west sections. Isolated cases of flash flooding will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday through Friday. The latest data suggests the heaviest rainfall will occur over northern and western Arkansas, with amounts of one to three inches possible, with locally higher amounts. This includes locations north and west of Texarkana, Conway, and Jonesboro. If this much rain materializes, some flash flooding could occur. Farther southeast, the forecast calls for one to two inches of rain. While severe weather appears likely in portions of the southern Plains, severe storms should be spotty mainly north and west of Little Rock. The main concerns will be strong to damaging winds and hail. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to https://weather.gov/lzk. 233/61
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
724 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021
ARZ021-030-290115-
Johnson AR-Logan AR-
724 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...
At 722 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Branch, or near Charleston, moving northeast at 45 mph.
Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Clarksville... Paris...
Lamar... Knoxville...
Subiaco... Hartman...
Scranton... Ratcliff...
Woodland... Hinkle...
Hoyt... Spadra...
Tokalon... Lake Dardanelle...
Coal Hill... Caulksville...
Morrison Bluff... Roseville...
Dublin... Chismville...
&&
LAT...LON 3523 9403 3523 9392 3532 9391 3532 9381
3543 9381 3540 9379 3536 9375 3537 9372
3540 9371 3552 9371 3564 9348 3540 9332
3519 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 244DEG 47KT 3528 9398
46The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 43 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:05 UTC.
8 flash flood, 1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
A funnel cloud was spotted from the Mercy Hospital parking lot in Booneville, looking towards Chismville.
Numerous low water crossings throughout the county are flooded with many being barricaded.
A portion of Bohannon Road, just south of Highway 254 West, was flooded.
Massey Mountain Road was flooded from heavy rain.
Highway 64 was closed due to high water over the road. Two swift water rescues occurred, one on Hwy. 359 near Piney Creek, and the other on Hwy. 164 near Horsehead Creek.
Water was covering portions of Hwy. 95 West.
A campground manager reported the Spring River was out of its banks through Hardy, high water in River Bend Park, Loberg Park, and Hardy City RV Park Campground. One RV was washed away by the water. No injuries.
Social media video showed high water moving over Talley Cemetery Rd. bridge between Jessieville and Hot Springs Village.
Water was reported to be over portions of Hwy. 359.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, April 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950119, 950120, 950121, 950122, 951796, 951797, 951798, 951806, 951799.