Thunderstorms developed across eastern Kansas and produced damaging winds before moving into Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed across eastern Kansas and produced damaging winds before moving into Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 5:27 AM CST, 4 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 627 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 ...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Main challenge for this forecast period remains on severe weather potential and how the ongoing morning convection and convective debris affects destabilization later today. So there still remains some uncertainty in how everything plays out today. Early this morning, radar is showing strong to severe convection moving across eastern Kansas. CAMs have done poorly with this with the overnight runs. Expect this convection to last a few more hours as it lifts east-northeast affecting our northwestern counties. These are expected to dissipate his morning as an MCS moves across northern Missouri. The combination of these will lay out outflow boundaries that will likely be the focus for additional convection within the increasingly unstable pre-frontal atmosphere with surface based capes running 2500-3500 j/KG and deep layer shear 30 to 40 knots, more than sufficient for robust updrafts. This instability largely dependent on atmosphere recovery from morning convection. None the less, large hail and damaging wind gusts look to be the primary threat. Although the tornado threat is low its certainly not zero as any boundary interactions could enhance low level SRH conducive to tornado development. convection will likely continue into the evening, but at this point the atmosphere may be rather worked over once the front arrives this evening. So confidence is severity with the front not very high. The heavy rain/flooding potential continues to be a concern as well. Wet antecedent conditions combined with precipitable water values running 1.50" to 1.75" and any training echoes could result in flash flooding. All the activity looks to exit the eastern counties after midnight, with drier air then advecting into the region. After a warm, somewhat muggy day with highs in the low to mid 80s, lows will drop into the lower 60s to around 70 tonight, with lower humidity levels. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Upper level and surface ridging over the area from Friday through Sunday will bring pleasant weather conditions for much of the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with dry conditions. This ridging will push east of the area Monday with medium range models showing varying degrees of troughiness across the Plains. Rain chances do enter the picture to end the long holiday weekend, but not until later Sunday into Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be more active with model trends showing more rain chances through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 Early morning showers/storms will likely dissipate by mid morning with more expected to develop later today. Some MVFR ceilings will persist this morning within the showers and storms, but VFR flight conditions will predominate. Still some uncertainty of timing of re-development of convection later today,but likely after 18Z so refinement of the TAFs will be likely throughout the day today. The threat for showers/storms will end this evening as a cold front moves through. Post frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely then through the overnight hours. As far as winds, there could be a few gusts to 20 to 25 knots late this morning through the afternoon, mainly at KSGF and KJLN. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Raberding LONG TERM...Raberding AVIATION...Raberding
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 852 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281400- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 852 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021 ...Strong to Severe Storms Expected Today... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited tornado risk. Elevated hail risk. Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited flooding risk. Significant lightning risk. Limited non thunderstorm wind risk. DISCUSSION... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop later today and into this evening. As the atmosphere destabilizes through the late morning and into the afternoon, storm coverage will increase as the unstable airmass interacts with an outflow boundary over central Missouri and a cold front over southern Kansas. The storms will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, large hail and the possibility of tornadoes. With high rainfall rates expected, there will also be a risk for flash flooding. Please keep updated with the latest weather situation today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected once again, mainly Monday through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Terry
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
511 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021
MOZ055-056-271045-
Benton MO-Morgan MO-
511 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BENTON AND NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...
At 510 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Leeton to near Calhoun to 9 miles south of
Windsor to 9 miles northwest of Warsaw. Movement was east at 40 mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake... Lincoln...
Cole Camp... Syracuse...
Palo Pinto... Mora...
Brandon... Crockerville...
LAT...LON 3868 9289 3868 9288 3863 9286 3868 9298
3844 9301 3831 9352 3851 9351 3851 9330
3854 9329 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 254DEG 35KT 3857 9361 3849 9357 3840 9353 3833
9351
DSAThe Springfield radar (KSGF), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:48 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree limbs up to an inch in diameter were broken and some shingles were removed from a roof.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 955319.