Isolated large hail and damaging wind occurred during the evening hours of May 2nd over portions of north central Kansas. A isolated intense thunderstorm developed along the Phillips/Rooks County line around 5PM CDT.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Isolated large hail and damaging wind occurred during the evening hours of May 2nd over portions of north central Kansas. A isolated intense thunderstorm developed along the Phillips/Rooks County line around 5PM CDT. This cell remained nearly stationary as it intensified over the next hour and eventually produced large hail around 1 inch in diameter. This storm remained strong to severe over nearly the same area for around 2 hours from 5:30-7:30PM. As this storm weakened entirely by about 8PM, a new line of thunderstorms along a cold front were poised to move in from the W/NW. This line posed a primarily wind threat as it shifted eastward across north central Kansas between 9-11PM. A couple 60-70 MPH wind gusts were reported during this time, but damage was minimal and/or very isolated. The line of thunderstorms weakened considerably by midnight as a developing MCV focused the most intense activity further S across central Kansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 2:26 PM CST, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 326 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 Focus is on thunderstorms/severe weather late this evening/tonight... The pattern aloft featured west/southwest flow ahead of a couple shortwave troughs translating through the northern/central Rockies towards the plains. At the surface, low pressure was centered in southeast CO with a dry line extending to the south, and a cold front was oriented to the north into far southwest Neb on into central South Dakota. Moisture advected north into our region in southerly flow ahead of the front and dps have risen into the upper 50s/around 60F across much of our cwa. The morning low cloud cover has become more scattered this aftn, allowing for increasing insolation and destabilization. The latest SPC meso page shows instability around 1500 j/kg already and models prog instability around 2000 j/kg by evening before the cold front arrives. The progressing cold frontal boundary will provide the focus/lift for showers/thunderstorms as we head through the evening/overnight hours with latest CAMs showing initial storm development as early as 5 PM but more so 7-8 PM or after. Storms are expected to align along the boundary while western convection along the front range/high plains rolls eastward...with a complex of storms impacting our region into tonight. Conditions will be favorable for strong to severe storms...bringing a primary damaging wind threat with 70 mph winds possible along a line of storms...and storms will also be capable of producing large hail around the size of ping pong balls. The latest SPC Day 1 outlook has upgraded portions of north central KS to an enhanced severe weather risk and the slight risk extends into southwest Neb. Heavy rainfall is also a concern from the storms given the moisture availability with dps around 60F and precipitable water values ranging from 0.75" to 1.25" (which average 1-2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). Our current QPF ranges from roughly a third of an inch on the low end to around 2" on the high end and as is the nature of convection...there will be winners and losers on rainfall with some locations seeing little rain and other areas could exceed the 2" amount. There is still some uncertainty on where the axis of heavy rain will align and overall trends have shifted a little farther to the south/southwest. Also tonight, the cold frontal passage will be a noticeable one. Aside from the storms, the front will bring an abrupt wind shift to the north and wind speeds will ramp up behind the boundary. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are expected to be common and would not be surprised if a few locations see gusts near 50 mph. For the most part, the convection is expected to depart by daybreak Monday with perhaps some lingering showers/storms in our eastern or far southern zones. Monday's weather is not looking overly nice with noticeably cooler temps, strong/gusty north winds and clouds around. Towards Monday night, an upper trough moving out of the Central Rockies is expected to bring another round of precip to portions of the Southern and Central Plains region, mainly to our south across KS and have carried buffer pops. Temperaturewise, our northwest zones are forecast to see some chilly overnight low temps Monday night/Tuesday morning with readings in the low/mid 30s and some frost development is possible. Our region generally stays in a cooler pattern under the influence of an upper trough for much of the upcoming week, with several days of highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s. Small chances for precip return around the middle of the workweek and and return again intermittently for next weekend. Temps looks to moderate to some degree late in the week/next weekend with high temps closer to the 70 degree mark. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 Low cloud cover which filled in this morning in moisture ahead of a cold front has begun to scatter this afternoon. Main concern for terminals is thunderstorm development this evening mainly around the 00Z time frame and into the overnight hours. Storms are expected to develop along an advancing cold front to the northwest of the terminals and increase in coverage heading into tonight as a complex of showers/storms crosses thru the area. Strong to severe storms are possible bringing a primary large hail and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall may also accompany the storms which could lead to localized flooding. While winds will be variable within storms, the cold frontal passage will bring an abrupt wind shift to the north tonight and an increase in wind speeds with gusts at or above 30kts, with fropa generally between 01Z and 03Z for KEAR and KGRI. Winds will remain strong/gusty through the night and into the day on Monday behind the boundary. Also even as showers/storms depart, low cloud cover with cigs at IFR levels are forecast into Monday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Fay AVIATION...Fay
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 558 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 031200- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 558 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight as a cold frontal boundary crosses the outlook area. Storms are expected to develop between 6 and 8 pm and continue into the overnight hours. The storms will be capable of producing damaging winds of 70 mph and large hail the size of golf balls. The greater threat for severe storms is focused across north central Kansas into far southern Nebraska. In addition, heavy rainfall in excess of one and two inches could cause localized flooding. Also tonight, strong north winds may gust near 50 mph behind a cold front. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. More chances for thunderstorms exist for portions of the outlook area Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then Friday night into Saturday night. At this time, the threat for severe storms appears low for Wednesday, but it is too early to confidently assess the severe storm potential Friday night into Saturday. Early Tuesday morning, it could get just cold enough to allow some frost to develop, mainly for locations west of a line from Cambridge to Loup City to Greeley. However, sub-freezing temperatures are not anticipated. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report hail, severe winds or instances of flooding this evening and tonight. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021
KSZ005-017-022300-
Rooks KS-Phillips KS-
536 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROOKS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...
At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stockton, or 19 miles south of Phillipsburg, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Stockton and Kirwin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3950 9946 3972 9917 3963 9906 3957 9907
3957 9905 3948 9905 3937 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 230DEG 15KT 3947 9930
MangelsPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 2 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0603 PM HAIL 8 SSE GLADE 39.57N 99.27W
05/02/2021 E0.70 INCH PHILLIPS KS PUBLIC
&&The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:38 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail size was estimated based on a highway camera which caught the falling hail at the Bow Creek bridge.
Delete me.
A wind gust of 68 MPH was measured by a mesonet station located 1 mile west of Logan.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 953003, 953004, 953005, 953006.