Drought in Kansas, March 1 to 16, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1121 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

General overview of the 7-day forecast:
For sure the two "main stories" are:
1) Mild weather!:
A prolonged stretch of consistently-mild (albeit not-overly warm)
weather by early-March standards, as literally each day from
Tuesday-Sunday is currently forecast to feature persistently-mild
high temperatures a few degrees either side of 60, and overnight
lows in the upper 20s-30s. This stretch of highs will be generally
10-15 degrees above normal for our coverage area (CWA)!

2) A mostly dry forecast:
This is of course a good thing for any possible ice-jam flooding
concerns in our central/northern Nebraska zones, but on the flip
side especially our driest south- southwest zones (which had far
less snow this winter than much of our central/north) could use a
good rain one of these days heading into spring. As it currently
stands, our only limited/iffy chances for precipitation (in the
form of rain) exist for mainly the southern 1/3 of our area
(especially KS zones) for Thurs night- Friday, but unless things
fairly drastically between now and then, the bulk of precipitation
with this possible system looks to miss our CWA to the south.

"Secondary stories" over the next few days:
1) Ice jam flooding concerns for a few more days?:
To be honest, the news has been almost eerily quiet this weekend
as far as any actual/ground-truth reports of impactful ice issues
within our CWA (while meanwhile just to our east our neighbors at
OAX continue with active Flood Warnings mainly along the Platte
River). To be sure, we are not necessarily "out of the woods"
completely, but undoubtedly the combo of gradually (not rapidly)
melting snow/ice and lack of any heavy precipitation of late has
helped mitigate possible flooding issues. We hope to touch base
more directly with our emergency management partners tomorrow to
gain some more ground-truth perspective, but in the meantime "no
news is good news". We cannot emphasize enough that when it comes
to ice jam flooding we are HEAVILY RELIANT on emergency managers,
law enforcement, spotters etc. to let us know if there are any
issues out there, because our limited network of automated gauges
can only "see" so much.

2) Near-critical fire weather Tuesday afternoon:
While late-winter/early-spring warm-ups are sometimes associated
with very active/concerning fire weather days, at least so far,
there do not appear to be any truly "big" fire weather days on the
horizon. That being said, the combination of forecast low relative
humidity and modestly-breezy winds on Tuesday afternoon has now
pushed this day into "near-critical" territory. See separate Fire
Weather section below for more details/any further discussion of
this topic.

Looking at the current/recent weather scene as of 3 PM:
Overall no major surprises today, although high temperatures will
likely fall slightly short of the overnight forecast (more in the
way of upper 30s Nebraska/low 40s KS instead of nearly the entire
CWA being 40+). This slightly-cooler Sunday can be mainly
attributed to some models not fully accounting for the combo of
steady low-level cold air advection and also low stratus clouds
hanging on perhaps a bit longer than expected (especially in
southeast quadrant of our Nebraska zones). Otherwise, it's been a
dry day save for some pesky light drizzle and/or flurries that
mainly brushed into our extreme northern zones (up around Ord) for
a few hours this morning. Breezy north- northwest winds are in
the process of diminishing from earlier in the day as surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest, with gusts in most areas
now near/under 20 MPH (they were 30+ MPH earlier in the day). In
the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model
data reveal that a large-scale, positively-tilted trough axis
currently bisects our region from northeast-to-southwest, with the
primary vorticity maximums within the trough both well up into
southern Canada/Great Lakes region, and also well to our southwest
over AZ/NM.

With the main/general points of the 7-day forecast outlined above,
will wrap up with some day-to-day details, mainly focused on the
shorter term:

This evening-tonight:
Clear and quiet. As low level stratus clouds continue to diminish
fade away late this afternoon, the stage is set for a clear night
as our flow aloft transitions to north-northwesterly behind the
passing large-scale trough axis. Breezes will become very
light/variable direction for a short time this evening as the
surface ridge axis slides through, but especially post-midnight
somewhat steadier southwest-westerly breezes (as high as 10-15
MPH) will take hold as a weak trough approaches, with direction
then turning more northwesterly by sunrise behind this passing
trough. Despite the clear skies, these steadier late-night/early
morning westerly breezes should help hold temps up somewhat, and
also likely preclude any possible fog development that might
otherwise try to form over lingering snow cover mainly in our
east-northeast zones. Low temps aimed mainly within a few degrees
either side of 25.

Monday-Monday night:
This is the proverbial "temperature transition day" between
today's colder regime and the more consistently-warmer readings
that arrive Tuesday and beyond. Under plentiful sunshine,
temperatures will climb roughly 10 degrees higher than today (and
nudged them up generally 2-4 degrees from previous forecast). This
means mainly upper 40s-low 50s most Neb zones, and low-mid 50s in
KS. Fortunately for any fire weather concerns, winds will be
fairly light, generally averaging no more than 10-15 MPH from the
northwest in the morning, then becoming lighter/more variable
direction in the afternoon as the next surface ridge moves
through. Breezes Monday night turn southerly, with lows aimed
mainly mid-upper 20s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night:
Day 1 of our true warmer regime. Thanks to steady southwest
breezes (gusting 20-25 MPH) especially in our southern/southeast
zones, readings will get another solid 10-ish degree boost, and
actually raised a good 3-5 degrees from previous forecast to get
most areas within a few degrees either side of 60. Near-critical
fire weather concerns possible south (per preceding/following
sections).

Wednesday-Thurs daytime:
Looking tranquil and dry under weak ridging aloft with continued
highs mainly low-mid 60s. Fairly light winds (especially Wed).

Thurs night-Friday:
Although plenty of time for things to change at least slightly,
this time frame features are only small rain chances, and only in
our southern zones. Both the ECMWF/GFS currently agree on sliding
a shortwave trough mainly across the Southern Plains, with our CWA
along the far northern edge of any forcing/precip potential. This
could miss us completely, or on the flip side trend north and
affect more of our area...far too soon to say for sure.

Saturday-Sunday:
For being a week out, fairly high confidence in the going dry
forecast (especially Saturday) as ridging prevails aloft ahead of
the next potential system. The latest ECMWF shows some rain
brushing into our area by late Sunday into Sunday night, but GFS
currently dry. High temps continue mild...mainly near 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be mainly light, but will
gradually turn from the southwest to the north during the morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Regarding chances of "near-critical" fire weather conditions
Tuesday afternoon:

Despite consistently-warmer temperatures over the next several
days, there is currently (at least for now) only one afternoon
that carries any heightened concern for fire weather...that being
Tuesday. Fortunately, we are not currently expecting outright-
critical conditions that might necessitate Warning issuance, but
with Tuesday still being 2 days out there is still time for things
to trend worse, so this bears close watching.

More details: we are now forecasting much of our southern CWA
(especially counties along/south of the state line) to feature a
several-hours overlap of RH as low as 15-25 percent, and
southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 MPH. As a result, the main
limiting factor that is currently keeping us meeting outright-
critical criteria is winds/gusts, as at least for now we are not
expecting sustained winds consistently 20+ MPH/gusts 25+ MPH.
Should wind speeds trend upward then critical thresholds could be
met in some counties. Farther north (especially near and
northeast of the Tri Cities), fire concerns Tuesday are lower,
mainly due to the ground being wetter from recently-melted/melting
snow and also slightly higher minimum RH values holding up
between 25-40 percent.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
303 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-073-074-011200-
Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-
Hall-Hamilton-Phelps-Kearney-
303 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska
counties along and north of the Platte River.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

Although not a sure thing, there remains the possibility of ice
jam induced flooding along portions of the Platte, North Loup,
Middle Loup, Loup and Cedar Rivers as river ice continues to
break up.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

For at least a few more days, there will remain the possibility
of ice jam induced flooding along portions of the Platte, North
Loup, Middle Loup, Loup and Cedar Rivers as river ice continues
to melt and break up.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are highly encouraged to report any ice jams or ice jam
flooding to NWS Hastings, as this type of flooding is often
unable to be detected by automated gauges, thus making ground-
truth reports especially critical.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ064-072-075>077-082>087-011200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-York-Gosper-Adams-
Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
303 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Kansas, along with south central Nebraska counties south of the
Platte River.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

On Tuesday afternoon, near-critical fire weather conditions are
expected across much of the area, due to the combination of
southwest winds gusting 20 to 25 MPH and relative humidity
dropping as low as 15 to 25 percent.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch