One report of flash flooding happened early on 7/15 from a slow moving storm system.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
One report of flash flooding happened early on 7/15 from a slow moving storm system.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 10:41 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1141 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Plenty of high cloud overhead today downstream of an upper wave over the northern Plains and monsoonal moisture in Arizona. A cold front associated with the northern wave was located from northwest Kansas into north-central Iowa at 18z with elevated showers and storms just northwest of the local area in an area of mid-level WAA. Short-range models showing some variability in how far southeast the current precip will reach over the next several hours, with some indications of surface-based development. Recent RAP forecasts keep some MLCIN in place across the area however. Latest dewpoint observations show the boundary layer not quite as well mixed as expected at this point but values into mid to upper 50s are not far upstream in central Kansas. Instability also not impressive and DCAPE values are also progged to fall below 1000 J/kg this afternoon, but can't completely disregard the potential for a downburst near severe levels forming in the northwest counties into this evening. More precip coverage is expected later this evening into the overnight hours as convective remnants move northeast out of western Kansas. A moderate low-level jet redevelops but MUCAPE remains modest and severe potential is low. Continued cloud/blowoff and moderate south winds should keep temps warm ahead of any precip. The cold front makes steady southeast progress from north-central into southeast Kansas Thursday into Thursday night. The trend for a stronger mid-level wave developing from the west continues though the 12Z larger-scale runs (particularly the NAM and to a lesser degree the GFS) suffer from convective feedback with a potent MCV moving ENE out of southwest Kansas through the day. Some HREF runs also have MCV production but are overall less robust with the mass field responses. The setup still supports heavy rains with warm mid- levels, fairly unidirectional wind fields and weak to moderate skinny CAPE in PW values of 1.5 to 2 inches. The more favored HREF suite still produces some bands of a few inches of rain and seem reasonable. Ground conditions have well-recovered from the precipitation four days ago and keep the flash flood that somewhat localized. The area of concern seems to have shifted a bit more north to south with some agreement in a weak surface low moving northeast along the front through the day with moisture convergence shifting north with time. Enough instability may remain in the warm sector for some downburst wind potential from midday to early evening as well. The mean upper wave swings through during the night into early Friday for drying and much quieter conditions. Have kept some small precip chances in southeastern areas though the a drier trend continues to show itself. The upper flow pattern becomes rather stagnant from the weekend into early next week. The front may linger just west of the area early in the period with some potential for additional weak upper waves to move through for small precip chances in mainly western areas through much of the weekend. The upper ridge axis looks to push enough east by late Monday allowing surface high pressure to sink enough south west for a dry Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Low level dry air across the terminals continues to make ongoing convection tend to diminish in coverage as it tries to move generally east and southeast. The frontal boundary is very slow to move across the area through the next 24 hrs. Therefore, have delayed onset timing for showers and embedded thunderstorms to impact the terminals. Once precipitation begins, the expectation is that it would be off and on but very hard to time beginning and ending times for these multiple smaller waves of showers and convection. Therefore have opted to maintain a generalized forecast past the first 6-hour window. The LLJ is sampled by radar to be around 35-40 kts and showing signs of veering over the KTOP/KFOE area. Still expecting the near surface layer to remain partially mixed with the front slow to move into the araea, so holding off mention of LLWS. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && DISCUSSION...65 AVIATION...Drake
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-152030- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight. There is a chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening north of a line from Abilene to Hiawatha. A few of these storms could produce gusty winds but the potential for severe weather is low. The chance for thunderstorms spreads southeast through east central Kansas through the night. Severe weather is not expected with any of these later storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are likely for the majority of the area Thursday into Thursday evening. A few of these storms may produce wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Areas along and south of a line from Abilene to Holton stand the better chance of seeing these stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall is likely Thursday into Thursday night, mainly east of a line from Abilene to Seneca. This rainfall could result in isolated flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:58 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Report of water over multiple roads in the city of Morganville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972578.