Winter Weather in Kansas, February 6, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1137 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

Currently have broad upper troughing from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the northeast CONUS with an upper impulse over the
Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, another piece of energy is quickly
approaching central Saskatchewan. At the surface, cold front
stretches across northern MO and into western Nebraska.

Upper impulse over the Northern Rockies will quickly dive
southeast and will be moving into the Southern High Plains by Sat
morning. At the same time, the vort lobe over central Canada will
also dive southeast and will be moving into the Northern Plains by
Sat morning and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sat
afternoon. This will result in a strong cold front surging through
the forecast area late tonight through Sat. Frontogenesis in the
800-700mb level will develop a transient band of snow that is
expected to sweep across central/northeast KS in the 10z-17z time
frame. Would not be surprised if there is some decent snow rates
in this band with models showing some decent mid level lapse
rates along with much of the temp profile in the prime dendritic
snow growth zone. Did go ahead and throw a few counties into a
winter weather advisory for snow amounts in the 1-2" range.

Snow will be moving off to the east by early Sat evening as polar
air continues to slowly spill into the area. Another upper impulse
is expected to move out of the Central Rockies and into the High
Plains by early Sun morning which will bring another round of
light snow to Nebraska and far northern KS with the bulk of this
activity staying north of the forecast area. The bigger story for
the Sun-Mon night time frame will be a reinforcing shot of even
colder air which we have been advertising the last several days.
Highs on Mon over central KS won't make it out of the teens with
wind chills late Mon night into Tue morning around -15 for central
KS and around -10 for south central KS

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

By Tue, longwave troughing will encompass most of the CONUS with
a deep polar upper low situated over northern Ontario. This will
keep the Plains into the Mississippi Valley locked into an Arctic
airmass. Snowfall chances look to increase for the Wed night into
Thu time frame as mid level flow backs ahead of an approaching
wave. Would not be shocked if snowfall chances are increased with
later forecasts. We look to be locked-in to this very cold pattern
through at least the weekend if not longer as the Polar upper low
retrogrades back to the southwest across southern Canada. This
looks to be one of the more prolonged cold outbreaks we have had
in several years.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

A fast moving storm system will move out of the Northern Rockies
and impact the area on Saturday morning. Light snow will spread
across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours
before quickly moving east of the area. Ceilings will lower with
widespread IFR/MVFR developing by mid-morning and lingering
through the early afternoon hours before conditions begin to
improve from west to east as the storm system races eastward away
from the region. Much colder air will spread south across the
area in the wake of the system with breezy northeast winds
anticipated with continued mid clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29  33  15  31 /  10  40   0   0
Hutchinson      27  30  14  30 /  10  40   0   0
Newton          27  29  12  29 /  10  60   0   0
ElDorado        28  32  13  30 /  10  50   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   31  37  18  34 /  10  40   0   0
Russell         24  28  11  27 /  30  40  10  10
Great Bend      25  30  13  31 /  20  30  10   0
Salina          25  29  10  24 /  30  80  10  10
McPherson       26  28  12  28 /  20  60  10  10
Coffeyville     29  38  18  34 /   0  50   0   0
Chanute         28  32  13  31 /   0  80   0   0
Iola            27  31  12  29 /   0  90   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    28  36  15  33 /   0  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 2 PM CST Saturday for
KSZ033-049-051>053.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
344 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Arctic air will plunge south across the area on Saturday. Light snow
is expected to accompany the colder air, especially across central
Kansas where an inch or two of accumulation is possible in the
morning. See latest winter weather advisory for additional details.

Arctic air will impact the area next week with temperatures
expected to remain below freezing much of the time. There may also
be occasional chances for light snow or flurries and freezing
drizzle. Dangerously low wind chills can also be expected. This
will likely be a long duration outbreak of cold air which could
extend into the following weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict