Hail in Kansas, August 10, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

So far turning out to be another dry day today for most locations,
though highs are struggling a bit due to cloud cover and had to be
lowered a degree or two. This also means that the Heat Advisory is
struggling to be realized today as well, but any breaks in cloud
cover would allow for temperatures to rise. This lends itself to
keeping the advisory in place. With regards to precip, so far we
have seen a few isolated, weak showers across our KS counties,
though not as many as originally anticipated. The surface front has
made it's way to just southeast of the area, though it can be
difficult to discern at times as this front is slightly more
diffuse. Convection has been focused mainly to the south of our CWA
along the I-70 corridor today where the front is roughly located.
The rest of the day looks to be a bit more of a toss up precip wise.
Models are initialized really poorly and haven't been handling
precip very well today. Overall still expecting very little in terms
of precip tonight. Nothing widespread is expected, in fact anything
that does crop up will be very isolated in nature and mainly across
north central KS. Should a storm or two pop up there is the
potential that they could become strong to severe. Models showing no
shortage of instability and and good mid level lapse rates across
the area. However, models show that we will remain fairly capped
through the evening due to warm midlevel temperatures and a lack
of better forcing.

Wednesday and most of the daytime on Thursday are expected to be dry
and hot again. Aloft we remain under fairly zonal flow and
transitioning to weak northwest flow tomorrow night. Tomorrow will
be the hottest day of the forecast with highs in the mid 90s across
our NE counties, and in the upper 90s to low 100s in our KS
counties. Have issued a Heat Advisory for a few of our KS counties
for tomorrow afternoon. Heat indices exceeding 105 degrees are
forecast within the advisory area. The actualization of the heat
tomorrow will largely depend on frontal placement in the
afternoon, as moisture will pool along the front and increase
dewpoints.

Thursday, an upper level trof is situated over the Great Lakes
region with a sfc cold front extending from the Great Lakes through
the Plains. This front will move through the area on Thursday, this
time bringing cooler temperatures, along with the chance for more
showers and storms. Late in the day on Thursday precip chances start
to ramp up as storms are likely to form along the front. Chances
continue to increase and become more widespread Thursday night. Some
of these storms may be strong to severe.

Friday's highs are expected to be back down into the lower 80s and
closer to normal for this time of year. The remainder of the
forecast is characterized by periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms as various shortwaves aloft push through. Models
diverge slightly after Sunday and so the exact timing of when we
could see precip in these outer periods is still up for debate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VFR conditions are forecasts. Could be some isolated stratus
toward dawn, but not enough to warrant much of a mention in the
forecast. Cold front passage by Wednesday afternoon should shift
winds to have a north component and remain light.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-007-018-019.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ007-017>019.

&&

DISCUSSION...Shawkey
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few isolated thunderstorms may redevelop late this afternoon
and evening primarily southeast of a line from Hebron Nebraska to
Stockton Kansas. Should thunderstorms redevelop, there is the
potential some could be strong to marginally severe. The primary
threats would be wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to the size of
quarters.

The Heat Advisory remains in effect through early evening for
areas along and southeast of a line from Smith Center, KS to
Hebron, NE. Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat index values may once again top out near 100 degrees in
north central Kansas and along the Highway 81 corridor in
Nebraska on Wednesday. Portions of north central Kansas may reach
or exceed 105 degrees, and a Heat Advisory is in effect from 1 PM
to 9 PM.

Chances for thunderstorms return Thursday afternoon and evening
and will persist off and on again across portions of the outlook
area through Monday. Some of the storms on Thursday may be strong
to marginally severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any strong wind and hail from
possible storms late this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings