Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 10, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

The surface trough axis was a focus for showers and storms this
afternoon which had a big impact on afternoon high temperatures
where clouds and precipitation occurred. Much of this activity is
expected to be diurnally driven and is expected to dissipate during
the early evening hours.  Better chances for nocturnal storms may
remain north and east of our forecast area tonight where the
moisture transport/LLJ will be maximized.

Wed-Thu...the sfc trough axis is expected to linger across portions
of central KS along or just north of the I-70 corridor again on Wed
and perhaps into Thu and high temperatures were trended downward
slightly on Wed with some clouds and precipitation potential
lingering across the area once again. Maintained some low pops
during the afternoon/evening hours although warm mid-level
temperatures may preclude more widespread storm activity. Any storm
that develops may be capable of gusty winds and perhaps some hail
given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates but coverage is
expected to remain low. Maintained a heat advisory for locations
along and east of I-135 but dewpoint temperatures are progged to be
slightly lower compared to the past few days, especially on Thu with
now plans to expand the advisory at this time, although southeast
Kansas may be close with heat indices progged near 105.

Friday...A cold front is expected to usher in more seasonable air
across the region on Fri but there remains some differences in how
far south the front makes it. Maintained some mid pops across much
of the area and with some clouds and precipitation in the forecast
high temperatures were trended toward climate normals with most
locations seeing highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

The medium range models continue to suggest the mid/upper ridge
will remain anchored out west with northwest mid/upper flow
prevailing downstream across the central CONUS. This may keep us
in a more active pattern with relief from the recent heat.
Maintained a chance for storms through much of the period with
seasonable temperatures anticipated. Forecast highs are expected
to remain in the mid/upper 80s through much of the period while
slowly climbing to around 90 early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Surface frontal boundary across central Kansas will remain the
focus for isolated/widely scattered convection thru the forecast
valid period. Otherwise, the nocturnal low level jet will result
in low level wind shear again early Wednesday morning with VFR
conditions prevailing area-wide.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      76 101  73  98 /  20  10  20  10
Newton          75  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  10
ElDorado        76  98  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   76  99  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         74  98  71  98 /  20  10  10  20
Great Bend      73  98  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          77  98  74  98 /  30  20  20  20
McPherson       75  99  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
Coffeyville     77  97  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Chanute         76  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            76  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    76  97  75  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ051>053-068>072-
083-092>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ049.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ050-067-082-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
418 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
418 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of central and south
central Kansas through this evening. If thunderstorms develop,
severe weather will be possible, including wind gusts to 60 mph and
hail up to quater size.

Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees are expected into the early
evening across south central and southeast Kansas. Please see the
latest Heat Advisory for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A continued risk of thunderstorms is possible through the end of
the week. Please stay tuned for updates on the potential hazards
and the areas at greatest risk.

Heat indices of 103 to 108 degrees are likely again on Wednesday,
especially along and east of Interstate 135. Please see the latest
Heat Advisory for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
415 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

KSZ052-053-068-102145-
Harvey KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-
415 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Harvey,
northern Chase and southern Marion Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peabody, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Peabody, Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Florence, Elmdale,
Cedar Point, Hymer, Tallgrass Prairie, Tallgrass Prairie Preserve and
Saffordville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 9636 3809 9714 3809 9715 3808 9715
      3806 9720 3821 9731 3852 9670 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 232DEG 13KT 3817 9719

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
459 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

KSZ052-053-102230-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
459 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Chase
and southeastern Marion Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Florence, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Florence, Bazaar, Elmdale, Cedar Point and Hymer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 9696 3827 9706 3845 9698 3850 9670
      3824 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 246DEG 20KT 3823 9692

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER