Funnel Clouds in Iowa, July 19, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Warming temperatures through the week and increasing humidity main
forecast concern. Currently, surface ridge resides just northwest
of Iowa this afternoon with light northeast flow across the
state. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday as the
thermal ridge across the Plains slowly edges toward the state.
Will see more of the same tonight as the last several night with
the potential for low lying fog with seasonable readings and
light winds as surface ridge slides across the state. The ridge
continues to slide southeast on Tuesday with flow becoming more
south to southwest with time. As the thermal ridge continues to
approach the state, temperatures continue to warm a few degrees
more.

The low level jet converges just northeast of the forecast area
on Tuesday night supporting convection in Minnesota into far
northeast Iowa. This is expected to remain mostly to the northeast
of the forecast area overnight, however it's not out of the
question that it may clip far northeast portions of the forecast
area. As the week continues, warm advection persists with readings
climbing into the 90s by the late work week and weekend. As
dewpoints also rise, heat index values are expected to climb to
around 100 or even higher. Near advisory criteria are expected
with possible headlines into the weekend. There is some indication
of a cold front by Sunday with some threat of convection, however
the bulk of forcing remains northeast of the state with only
isolated to scattered convection expected at this point.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Relatively good aviation weather with widespread VFR conditions
for much of the period. Exception is with overnight low lying fog
in many areas which is expected to rapidly burn off after sunrise
on Tuesday. Surface winds will be light and variable.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
140 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-201845-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
140 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat index values could exceed 100 degrees by the end of the
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.