Severe drought conditions persisted in portions of western Iowa during January. Little change was noted due to locked hydrologic conditions with frozen ground, despite favorable precipitation.
Every event with a place to put it; 13 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions persisted in portions of western Iowa during January. Little change was noted due to locked hydrologic conditions with frozen ground, despite favorable precipitation.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:38 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1138 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 Forecast Highlights: -- Low clouds move back in this evening with dense fog potential in areas that remain clear -- Mainly snow over southeastern Iowa on Saturday may cause New Year's Day travel impacts -- Mainly dry and seasonable into early next week Details: Stratus clouds have been slow to erode across central Iowa, but there has been some clearing in GOES-East Day Snow Fog RGB. This nicely shows the snow cover across the western half of the state. This stratus will try to push a bit farther east, but will likely expand back westward this evening. The other concern tonight will be the potential for dense fog similar to what occurred this morning over southwestern Iowa. While high resolution guidance is pointing toward fog, it will depend on locations clearing out/remaining clear, which would allow temperatures to near the dewpoint temperature. With the sunshine and some melting, near surface moisture will also be readily available and could help to lower the visibility for late/early New Year's Day travel. Attention then quickly turns southward where this afternoon there is a closed low crossing the Mexico border into Texas. There is a nice plume of moisture as seen on GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery, which will bring anomalous amounts of atmospheric moisture into Missouri and southern Iowa. This will bring snow into southern Iowa a little after sunrise New Year's Day. The northward extent of moisture and thus snow into Iowa will be limited by drier air being in place from high pressure departing to the east. There will be little in the way of snow for this event north of I-80 in central Iowa or Hwy 20 in eastern Iowa. While much of the event should be snow, the warm temperatures aloft may poke into southeastern Iowa and cause a bit of wintry mix. However, for our county warning area, it does not look like much icing potential. This is supported by trends in probabilistic guidance that continues to move icing southeastward. But for snow totals in our area, snow ratios will generally be less than 10:1 given the amount of moisture and soundings showing thermal profiles just below freezing a few thousand feet above ground level. There are some probabilities up to 30% of 1"/hr rates from the 15z SREF, but nothing noted in the 12z HREF pointing to light to at most moderate snow rates at times for this event. The higher end official forecast has generally 2 to around 3 inches over our far southeastern counties. These snow totals are supported by 12z HREF mean and the 12z GEFS with the NBM 50th and 75th percentile showing similar if not slightly lower amounts. There is a potential for a bit higher totals with the NBM having low (e.g. ~25%) probabilities of 4" over our south central/southeast counties and the 12z ECMWF ensembles also showing a stripe of higher snow amounts. As for headlines, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting tomorrow morning into tomorrow early evening for the higher end official snow totals. This is mostly for expected New Year's Day travel impacts and snow, but as mentioned earlier there may be a bit of wintry mix for a brief period in Davis or surrounding county. The snow will taper off rather quickly from west to east late Friday afternoon and evening. Attention once again will focus southward as the longwave trough lifts northeastward on Saturday. Much of the QG convergence with this system will pass southeast of the state, but it could brush areas of southeastern Iowa with a bit of light snow Saturday afternoon. Amounts in our area should be well under an inch. Temperatures this weekend will be around seasonal levels in the middle 20s north to around low 30s south on Saturday and a touch warmer on Sunday around or in the low 30s. Dry weather to start the week will be replaced by passing precipitation chances at midweek as model solutions diverge. The deterministic and ensembles of the GFS are the deepest with the mid-level trough and a bit slower compared to the farther northward and faster ECMWF. With these differences in mind, maintained initial guidance for the forecast. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/ Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 Fog slowly continues to settle in over the state tonight and expecting visibility to drop to IFR/LIFR conditions past 08z Friday. Ceilings as well to stay at or drop to IFR/LIFR conditions with most ceilings ranging from 200 to 600 feet. Confidence remains high of the IFR/LIFR conditions through at least sunrise Friday, but lower confidence when conditions will improve. Thus, delayed the improvement until late in the morning or even into the afternoon hours with IFR to MVFR visibility and ceilings. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Friday for IAZ085- 086-095>097. && DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Podrazik
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 249 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>084-092>094-012100- Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo- Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene- Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper- Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union- Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur- 249 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight Locally dense fog will be possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Light snow is possible on Friday in portions of southern and southeast Iowa. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. IAZ085-086-095>097-012100- Monroe-Wapello-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis- 249 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight Locally dense fog will be possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the area on Friday. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. KCM/Ansorge
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
13 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought persist across portions of Emmet County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe to extreme drought persisted across portions of Palo Alto County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Kossuth County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Pocahontas County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Sac County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Calhoun County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Crawford County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Carroll County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Audubon County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Guthrie County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Cass County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of western Adair County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across far northwest Adams County during January. Despite favorable precipitation during the month, frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 931992, 931993, 931994, 931995, 931996, 931997, 931998, 931999, 932000, 932001, 932002, 932003, 932004.