An axis of heavy rain set up along and south of US 24, with flash flooding reported in Fort Wayne along SR-1 and I 469. Isolated amounts of 3-6 of rain were reported, with reports of 1-3 more widespread.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
An axis of heavy rain set up along and south of US 24, with flash flooding reported in Fort Wayne along SR-1 and I 469. Isolated amounts of 3-6 of rain were reported, with reports of 1-3 more widespread. Several rivers went into action stage during the event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 6:08 PM EST, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 708 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms tonight across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio along and south of US Route 24. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible for these locations. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, with mainly dry conditions building in for Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable high temperatures are expected through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Showers and embedded thunderstorms, with some locally heavy rainfall, will continue to be the primary forecast concern for tonight. Broad upper level support downstream of a pair of upper level disturbances across MO and the Corn Belt has allowed for continuation of widespread rain showers across the area. This has limited extent of destabilization this afternoon given poor mid level lapse rates of between 5-6 deg C/km. A few corridors of heavier rainfall potential appear to be shaping up in the very near term. One area is ongoing across west central Illinois in vicinity of the stalled sfc front. This boundary extends northeastward into northwest Indiana but low level convergence appears to be somewhat weaker across eastern portions of this boundary into NW Indiana. A second possible area of heavier showers and thunderstorms may evolve from south central Illinois into northeast Indiana along a sharpening low level pre-frontal confluent zone. Extensive clouds and precip have limited instability, but may need to watch this corridor extending up into northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio south of US Route 24 for some modest destabilization in a brief window late afternoon/early evening. This corridor should mark a strong instability gradient, with greater instability remaining just south and east of the forecast area. Some modest increase in low/mid level flow is expected through early evening ahead of an MCV approaching southern Illinois, with best resultant shear profiles (effective shear around 30-35 knots) from far eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio. Parameter space still appears quite marginal for any strong/severe threat across far southeast locations and still feel greater isolated severe threat will remain across southern Illinois into central Ohio. Aforementioned low level confluent zone in advance of southern IL MCV and abundant lingering deep layer moisture will pose a threat of heavy rainfall, particularly along/south of US Route 24 across NE Indiana/NW Ohio. Will continue to hold off on hydro headlines at this time given trend of stronger afternoon convective elements preceding better MCV forcing this evening remaining south of the area. There is also some lingering uncertainty with exactly where this heavier band of rain sets up this evening and whether heavier amounts remain across east central Indiana and west central Ohio. Some low confidence still exists with timing reduction in rain chances from west to east this evening as actual sfc boundary may still be active with scattered showers/embedded storms through late evening/early overnight. On Saturday, departing MCV across the Ohio Valley will be replaced by larger scale upper trough dropping E-SE out of the Corn Belt. Moisture profiles will be more limited on Saturday but better diurnal heating should yield some surface based CAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Will maintain some 20-30 PoPs with peak heating on Saturday. Weak wind profiles on Saturday with light mid level westerlies atop weak low level easterlies could yield a low chance for any slow moving isolated storm to produce some heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 A period of quieter weather is expected Sunday and Monday as the upper level trough slowly drops southward across the Ohio Valley. By Sunday, easterly low level flow on southern periphery of Great Lakes/Upper Midwest anticyclone should advect enough dry low level air westward to limit isolated diurnal chances of rain showers. Have maintained some 20 PoPs across far western/southern portions of the forecast area where enough low level moisture may persist, and in closer proximity to departing upper level trough. Upper level ridging across central CONUS/south central Canada will dominate much of next week, with just a low chance of some showers or storms across the northeast on Tuesday with a backdoor cold front feature. By Thursday/Friday, medium range guidance indicates a more substantial upper level wave rotating through eastern Canadian negative height anomaly that would drive a more substantial cold front southward across southern/eastern Great Lakes. Have generally accepted guidance consensus PoPs for late in the period to account for this greater forcing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 KIWX radar indicating back edge of precip shield has shifted just east of KSBN as frontal wave lifts slowly northward through the area. Additional showers still expected ahead of this wave for KFWA but recent trends have shown an absence of lightning even within embedded convective elements so will not have mention of thunder. Forecast soundings indicated boundary and low levels remaining saturated through the night and should lead to mostly IFR ceilings at both sites with some concerns for visibility restrictions as fog develops after midnight. Expect gradual improvement on Saturday as frontal boundary shifts east of the area. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...JAL Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 344 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 INZ003>009-012>017-020-022>024-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-171945- La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke- Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Miami- Wabash-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams- Fulton OH- 344 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 /244 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are expected through the early overnight. Some localized heavy downpours are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday but no severe weather is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ018-025>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-171945- Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Defiance-Henry- Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 344 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible that could lead to ponding of water on roadways and some flooding of urban and low lying areas. The greatest threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding is along and south of US Route 24 across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday but no severe weather is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LMZ043-046-171945- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 344 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight. An isolated thunderstorm is possible this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1147 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 PM HEAVY RAIN MONROEVILLE 40.97N 84.87W
07/16/2021 M3.91 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER
TOTAL SINCE 6:30 PM EDT.
&&
MCDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1153 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1135 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W WETSEL 40.94N 84.50W
07/16/2021 M2.74 INCH VAN WERT OH MESONET
MESONET STATION 6364D 3 W WETSEL.
1132 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW OAKWOOD 41.11N 84.40W
07/16/2021 M1.98 INCH PAULDING OH MESONET
MESONET STATION DW7605 OAKWOOD.
1139 PM HEAVY RAIN OTTAWA 41.02N 84.05W
07/16/2021 M1.80 INCH PUTNAM OH MESONET
MESONET STATION OTTWP OTTAWA.
1138 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW FRONTIER 41.71N 84.65W
07/16/2021 M1.76 INCH HILLSDALE MI MESONET
MESONET STATION FW8073 CAMDEN.
1138 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW MAHON 40.93N 85.41W
07/16/2021 M1.64 INCH HUNTINGTON IN MESONET
MESONET STATION DW3241 HUNTINGTON 2NE.
1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE MENDON 41.98N 85.43W
07/16/2021 M1.59 INCH ST. JOSEPH MI CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MUNM4 2.0 SE MENDON.
1137 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE NINE MILE 40.98N 85.18W
07/16/2021 M1.53 INCH ALLEN IN ASOS
ASOS STATION KFWA FORT WAYNE INTERNATIONAL
AP.
1138 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE TEDROW 41.62N 84.19W
07/16/2021 M1.08 INCH FULTON OH MESONET
MESONET STATION CW9767 TEDROW.
1141 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW WESTMINSTER 40.70N 84.02W
07/16/2021 M1.08 INCH ALLEN OH ASOS
ASOS STATION KAOH LIMA.
1139 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E CAVETT 40.95N 84.51W
07/16/2021 M1.00 INCH VAN WERT OH MESONET
MESONET STATION AT247 SCOTT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W HESSEN CASSEL 40.98N 85.14W
07/16/2021 M1.81 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
MCDThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:00 UTC.
1 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Indiana State Police reports high water over the road at W 600 N around N 100 W.
Emergency management and law enforcement officials reported high, flowing water over several roads along the south side of Fort Wayne east into Monroeville as anywhere from five to almost seven inches of rain fell. State Route 1 from Interstate 469 south to Hamilton Road was closed due to water covering the road. Trier ditch overflowed over Tillman Road between Hessen Cassel and Adams Center Roads. Several cars were stranded in parking lots with one in a ditch in Monroeville due to the high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 974388, 974435.