Heavy rain on February 28th sent the mainstem rivers above flood stage early in March. Minor to moderate flooding occurred on the Ohio, Wabash, and Little Wabash Rivers.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Heavy rain on February 28th sent the mainstem rivers above flood stage early in March. Minor to moderate flooding occurred on the Ohio, Wabash, and Little Wabash Rivers. Near to above normal precipitation in March kept some locations above flood stage through the entire month. The generally 1 to 2 inches of rain that fell on the 11th caused the river falls to come to an end, and even caused some renewed flooding. Another wet period occurred from the 15th to the 18th with several days of precipitation across the area. This multi-day event led to a renewed period of flooding for much of the Ohio and Wabash basins. Another round of storms passed through on the evening of the 27th with heavy rain continuing through the overnight hours. This more widespread rain caused more significant rises on area rivers and streams.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 11:35 AM CST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1135 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Radar indicates that the last of the rain has exited the region, but clouds remain along with healthy north breezes. Clearing should begin over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois by sunrise, while most of the area should see some sunshine by afternoon. With the north fetch and decent mixing expected, went with lower MOS dewpoints through the day. Relative humidity should drop below 40% over the entire region this afternoon. Despite west northwest flow aloft Tuesday, much of the 00Z guidance allows a compact upper low to move east from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. This keeps it just close enough to keep a chance PoP for light rain across the far southern portions of the region. This would be most likely in southeast Missouri in the late afternoon and in west Kentucky in the evening. Amounts should be under a tenth of an inch if anything reaches the area at all. Generally stayed close the NBM temperatures through the period, with the exception of lows tonight when the cooler ConsMOS numbers were mixed in. While the entire area is forecast to drop below freezing, we may not be cool enough. Lows Tuesday night are forecast to be right near the freezing mark, but any precipitation should be out of the area well before there would be any concern for wintry precipitation. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 309 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 The long term provides a lengthy period of dry weather for the Quad State. Initial west-northwesterly flow aloft Wednesday will shift more northerly as a longwave trough develops over the East Coast and a ridge forms in the Mountain West, migrating to the Plains for the weekend. The longest meridional extent of the ridge and trough is expected to be the weekend. Mostly caught in between these two features, the Quad State is likely to have near normal temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The ridge begins to move into the Quad State at the very end of the long term making a warming trend favored for the start of the following week. The best chance of precip being introduced in a later forecast package involves a weak disturbance associated with a weekend front. This feature enters the Midwest from the northwest as it dives towards the base of the trough, and may contribute to some backbuilding of the trough and cooling of temperatures. However, many ensemble members keep this disturbance dry. NBM continues to exclude PoPs from this, and the forecast will remain as such for now. The ensemble members that do have precipitation with this disturbance have light amounts. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday with high pressure in control. High clouds will gradually clear from the northwest this afternoon. More high clouds will begin to increase ahead of an approaching area of low pressure on Tuesday. North winds around 10 knots will slowly subside through the afternoon, then become light tonight and gradually veer to the south by Tuesday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...ATL AVIATION...RJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 318 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-021100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 318 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However, lingering areal flooding may keep some roads covered in water early this morning across west Kentucky, generally from Fulton to Murray, east to Hopkinsville, Elkton and surrounding communities. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Moderate flooding occurred on the Ohio River. At the Shawneetown river gage, the river crested at 45.25 feet. Flood stage is 33 feet. Considerable flooding of fields occurred, and some rural secondary roads were affected in the flood plain.
Moderate flooding occurred on the Ohio River. At the Olmsted river gage, the river crested at 43.33 feet. Flood stage is 36 feet. There was considerable flooding of fields and woods in the flood plain. A few county roads were impacted.
Minor flooding occurred on the Ohio River. Low-lying fields and woods in the flood plain were underwater. Fort Defiance State Park near Cairo was partially flooded.
Minor flooding occurred on the Little Wabash River. Low-lying fields and woodlands in the flood plain were underwater.
Minor flooding occurred on the Ohio River. Low-lying fields and woods in the flood plain were underwater. Portions of Fort Massac State Park were flooded, closing some of the river access roads.
Minor flooding occurred on the Wabash River, affecting some farmland outside the protection system of levees and floodwalls. Several local river roads were flooded. Oil well production was halted in the flood plain.
Minor flooding occurred on the Wabash River. Low-lying farmland in the flood plain was inundated. The farmland was mainly still unplanted.
Minor flooding occurred on the Ohio River. Low-lying fields and woodlands in the flood plain were underwater. A few rural county roads were affected.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 943872, 943875, 943876, 943877, 943874, 943880, 943878, 943873.